Views of candidates' qualities keep race close

[Ron Burgundy]

AP - If Barack Obama's got so many issues going for him in the presidential election, from the economy to war fatigue to a national hunger for change, how come John McCain is so close to him as their race begins in earnest?

Early polls suggest the contest is so competitive at this point largely because of how people view the personal qualities of Obama, the Democrat, and McCain, the Republican.

There's a lot that people are considering, from the way the candidates look to how long they've been around to what they think. Or at least what voters think they think. Here's a look at what polls say about why the contest is so close, and what each candidates' advantages might be:

RACE: On an issue many are reluctant to discuss frankly with pollsters, the country's reaction to Obama's drive to become the first black president remains a wild card. Early indications are the Illinois senator faces important obstacles.

He trailed McCain among whites by 6 percentage points in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll this month, and 9 points in a Pew Research Center survey in late May. That's not bad for a Democrat: No Democratic presidential candidate has won the white vote since exit polls of voters began three decades ago, and only Bill Clinton even came close.

But there are danger signs for Obama. In a poll early this year by The Associated Press and Yahoo News, just 43 percent of whites said they view blacks favorably. In this month's NBC-Journal poll, one in five whites said the candidate's race would be important in deciding their vote. Nearly half of whites said they could not identify with Obama's background or values, and more than one in three disagreed with the idea that he cares about people like them.

Some open questions about how much these findings matter: How many of the whites who are uncomfortable with Obama's race would vote against a Democrat anyway for other reasons? How many of them live in states like those in the South where Democrats seldom win? And on the other side of the ledger, how many additional blacks and liberal whites will vote who otherwise may not?

LEADERSHIP AND EXPERIENCE: McCain, the Arizona senator, has a significant advantage here. He's seen as a stronger leader than Obama in the NBC-Journal poll, and gets hugely better grades than Obama in that survey for experience and his potential as commander in chief. People in the AP-Yahoo and other polls cite the military background of McCain, who was a Vietnam pilot and prisoner of war — a big plus in a time of war.

IDEOLOGY: Though a moderate within the Republican universe, McCain is seen as far more conservative than Obama — important in a country that still tilts to the right. In the AP-Yahoo poll in April, nearly four in 10 called themselves conservative and a bit more said they are moderate. Only one in five said they are liberal. Compare that to how the two men were viewed in this month's Journal-NBC survey: About half called McCain conservative and a third said he is moderate. Obama is called liberal by six in 10, with only a quarter calling him moderate.

LIKABILITY: Here's a personality trait where Obama has an advantage. The candidate you'd rather have a beer with often has the edge in elections, and the AP-Yahoo and other polls find Obama significantly more likable than McCain.

POLITICAL BRANDING: A big plus for Obama. When Obama's and McCain's names are not mentioned, people preferred a Democrat to a Republican winning the White House by 16 percentage points, according to the Journal-NBC poll. By about the same margin, the Democratic Party has a more favorable image than the GOP in the same survey. In repeated AP-Yahoo polling between last fall and this spring, more people call themselves Democrats than Republicans by roughly 10 points.

THE ISSUES: Since Democrats don't control the White House, it's easier for Obama than McCain to play offense on the problem the public agrees is tops by far, the staggering economy. More think Obama would do better than McCain handling the economy, a CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll last week showed. Energy is a rising concern, and there, too, Obama gets the edge. Iraq is trickier, even though Obama opposes and McCain supports the unpopular war. The public is about evenly divided over whom they trust more to oversee the conflict, the Pew poll said.

PRESIDENT BUSH: How does McCain distance himself from one of the least popular presidents in history without alienating the majority of Republicans who still like him? One danger signal for McCain: Three in four think he would follow Bush's policies closely, in the Journal-NBC poll.

CHANGE: It's almost as if Obama coined that word. Polls show he owns it, and it's what the public wants.

ELECTRICITY: Turnout during the presidential primaries and campaign contributions make clear that Democrats are far more motivated than Republicans this year. Polls agree: Democrats were nearly three times likelier than Republicans to say they are extremely enthusiastic in the CNN survey, and people in the Journal-NBC poll were far likelier to call Obama inspiring than McCain.

SOME UNKNOWNS: Will Democrats remain divided after Obama's five-month struggle with Hillary Rodham Clinton for the nomination? That's possible, though history shows many who backed the loser in a party fight support the nominee by November. White women backed Clinton over Obama by 24 points in the Democratic primaries, and right now he trails McCain by 8 points among them, according to the Pew poll.

ONE LAST BIG VARIABLE: The image each candidate will have by November. Only about one in four in the Journal-NBC poll claimed to know a lot about what either candidate stands for.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080616/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_starting_gate [link]