Georgia a contested state?!?

Ardentfrost · 06-20-2008, 08:56 AM

I saw yesterday that Obama's first campaign ad is airing in some 18 states including Georgia. Here's the ad

YouTube Video

Here's the list of states it is airing in:

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia

I was surprised to see GA on there since it's been an easy red state for the past 25 years (since the old days of the southern democrats) except for the 1992 election.

But then I heard on the radio this morning that current polls have Obama and McCain closer than they were a few months ago. McCain did have a 10 point lead on Obama then, but now it's a 1 point lead which is within the margin of error.

Then they said Barr is polling at 6%, which certainly makes everything make more sense. Barr, being an ex-GA Congressman is obviously going to pull some decent pollage in Georgia, and so suddenly Georgia's 15 electorates are up for grabs.

I, of course, will be voting Barr unless something crazy happens (but either way, I will NOT be voting for McCain or Obama). But if nothing else, how Georgia swings might be a good indicator for the Republicans needing to change. After Bush Sr.'s term, GA went blue for Clinton certainly making a statement that Bush was not what they wanted. And then in 1996 it was back to being red.

It also kinda makes sense because the majority of true democrats in this state are in Atlanta. 8 Million people in the whole state, 5 million in Atlanta. So the staunch voters should be fairly evenly matched. In that respect, if Republicans are messing up, the swing voters are going to take over.

So Obama is spending money to advertise in GA already. In 2004, I barely saw any advertisements for Kerry, and the ones I saw were WAY late in the election cycle. And it might turn out to be money well spent for Obama. It's no secret that Bush Jr. has some of the worst poll numbers of any president ever (he'll potentially finish out with the worst ever). Georgia Republicans aren't immune to that, and that could spell a decent sized spot of blue in the deep south come November.

What I would love to see is other nearby states exhibiting the same thing. If there is little red to be seen come November, the Republicans cannot continue down their current path of authoritarianism. There would have to be a change in the party and hopefully it'd be for the better. Either that or the party just crash and burns, and all those true conservatives see the benefits of libertarianism

SoFlaJDM · 06-20-2008, 09:03 AM

absolutely... he could definitely benefit from the big african american population

the difference right now is only 10% points. That can change in 4 1/2 months. Everyone wrote off florida as mccain country, but obama is now ahead in 2 different polls against mccain. McCain Has no chance without florida. forget 300 electoral votes, obama's going for 400

Ardentfrost · 06-20-2008, 09:08 AM

I mean, it dropped from a 10 point lead to a 1 point lead in less than 3 months.

Clinton only won GA in 1992 by 2 points. It'd be REALLY interesting if Obama could take GA by a solid margin... like 5+ points

JaJae · 06-20-2008, 09:14 AM

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

I mean, it dropped from a 10 point lead to a 1 point lead in less than 3 months.

Clinton only won GA in 1992 by 2 points. It'd be REALLY interesting if Obama could take GA by a solid margin... like 5+ points

It's possible. If he can swing GA it would give him some momentum in the media I'd think.

Here's the latest breakdown from electoral-vote.com

Ardentfrost · 06-20-2008, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

It's possible. If he can swing GA it would give him some momentum in the media I'd think.

Here's the latest breakdown from electoral-vote.com

That needs to be updated to reflect the newer GA polls then

Weak GOP

kombayn · 06-20-2008, 04:53 PM

I just went to the site and Obama gaining ground in a lot of states. If this keeps up until the election, Obama is going to completely decimate McCain in the G.E.

P.S. That's a solid campaign ad.

JaJae · 06-20-2008, 07:27 PM

Obama may be up 15 points nationally.

Poll: Obama Opens Up 15-Point Lead | Newsweek Politics: Campaign 2008 | Newsweek.com

thewise1 · 06-20-2008, 07:37 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

Obama may be up 15 points nationally.

Poll: Obama Opens Up 15-Point Lead | Newsweek Politics: Campaign 2008 | Newsweek.com

beat me to it

motivez · 06-21-2008, 01:37 AM

It's going to be a landslide barring some major scandal.

McCain is a horrible candidate for the Republicans. The Republicans don't believe he's conservative enough, and the Democrats and many independents think he represents Bush's third term (myself included)

With McCain flip flopping on every issue like a fish in a boat, no one can really believe anything he says.. he's the candidate of the past in every way, Obama represents the future

The message of experience didn't work with Clinton, and it wont work with McCain.. give Obama someone on the ticket who appeals to white, middle class working people and women (ie: Clark) and I don't see how McCain has a shot unless the Republicans go REALLY nasty on race and religion

SoFlaJDM · 06-21-2008, 08:44 AM

and mccain continues his flip flops... he's now running negative ad (same kind he said he wouldn't run) on obama:

here's a nice commentary about that:

So much for a "respectful campaign" -- John McCain is now running the first negative attack ad of the general election, and he's jumped right into the sleazy end of the pool with a fear-mongering smear of Barack Obama.
McCain's attack ad depicts Barack and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad facing each other, the visual imagery suggesting that Barack Obama is somehow aligned with one of America's enemies.
If you think there's nothing disrespectful about McCain's ad, take a look at this ad that I mocked up in just a few minutes time. Like McCain's actual ad, it uses visual imagery to to make a brutal attack, in this case suggesting that John McCain is personally indifferent to the deaths of American soldiers.

Whether or not you agree with my mock ad's message, is there anyone who thinks McCain would consider it to be "respectful"? And if not, then how is his ad respectful? Just imagine how angrily the McCain campaign would respond if Barack Obama ever ran an ad such as this.
To be clear, I know that political campaigns are a tough business -- and I'm not squeamish about that. But McCain said his campaign was going to be different, and when he made his pledge, he received glowing press coverage for having set himself apart.
And now that he's broken his promise, launching the first negative attack ad of the general election, straight talk demands that he be held accountable.

Smull · 06-21-2008, 09:10 PM

I would love to see Obama win Georgia because of Barr

Ardentfrost · 06-22-2008, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by Smull

I would love to see Obama win Georgia because of Barr

I'd love to see him win GA, SC, and AL because of Barr. You want to talk about a major slap in the face to Republicans. Those three states are 3 of the most red in the nation.

If they lost those three, they'd have no choice but to reassess their direction.

motivez · 06-23-2008, 11:12 AM

GA and SC have huge black populations.. In combination with Barr's candidacy I think there's a real shot for him to pick up those two. I don't know much about the demographics of AL.

I think Barr could seriously be the Nader of this election. Not that I think without him, Obama couldn't win, because McCain is a horrible candidate.

With him as the nominee though the key states of the past might not matter nearly as much.