UK PM Test Vote...

[Viv]

This article relates to a by-election being held in Glasgow and is important because it may result in Gordon Brown's demise.

Normally, the Labour Party would be expected to win an election here, as it has a large majority in this constituency. (Brown is the Labour Party leader)

Scotland is traditionally a Labour stronghold, but in the last Scottish Parliament elections, Scots did not vote for Labour. Instead, they elected the head of the Scottish Nationalist Party to be leader of the Scottish Parliament.

They voted against Labour, to protest against the Iraq war, because of increased support for dissolution of the UK union and to give the Labour Party a general slap.

But it is unknown if that was an isolated event - in the General Elections, Scots may return to voting Labour.

This particular seat is a safe Labour one, they have a 13500 majority. So if this is lost, it indicates that Scotland will continue to vote against Labour and will do so again in the general election.

Which means, Gordon Brown is not likely to last even until then. His party will see it as an indication that he has lost support and will lose them the election... :

NINE candidates are to contest the crucial Glasgow East by-election, it was confirmed when nominations closed tonight.
Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, the Tories, the Greens, and the Scottish Socialist Party are all fielding candidates.

So too are Solidarity, the left-wing breakaway founded by Tommy Sheridan, as well as an independent, Chris Creighton, and Hamish HADVERTISEMENTowitt, standing under the Freedom-4-Choice banner.

The large number of candidates could make what is expected to be a close fight even closer.

Another element in the mix is the fact that the Labour and SSP candidates share the same surname – Labour MSP Margaret Curran and former SSP MSP Frances Curran.

Voting takes place on July 24 in the by-election caused by the resignation on health grounds of Labour MP David Marshall.
Labour is defending a majority of 13,500 but the SNP claims a political "earthquake" is under way.

Ladbrokes today quoted Labour at 4/6, saying they were shortening the odds after a run of money this week. They quoted the SNP at 11/10.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg joined the campaign trail today, and called on Tory leader David Cameron to apologise for a speech in which Mr Cameron appealed for a greater sense of public morality.

Claiming Labour had neglected the area for generations and that the SNP wanted to use voters as "pawns", Mr Clegg said: "You are certainly not going to get any hope from the Conservatives, whose leader had the arrogance to come here just recently and tell you that even if you are struggling on benefits, struggling to make ends meet, struggling to find a job, struggling to cope with poverty, that it's your own fault and he won't lift a finger to help you."

He also said Gordon Brown's political credibility had almost "evaporated".

"If he cannot hold on to a seat which for generations has been synonymous with the Labour Party I think he will pretty well have forfeited any remaining credibility he has with the people of Glasgow, Scotland, and Britain," said Mr Clegg, whose party came third with 11.9% of the vote in 2005.

The by-election campaign spilled over into Prime Minister's Questions where Harriet Harman, standing in for Gordon Brown, criticised Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.

The SNP candidate in Glasgow East, John Mason, has accused Labour of fielding a "part-timer" in the campaign – Ms Curran is already a Holyrood MSP.

Ms Harman told MPs today: "The leader of the Scots Nats in Holyrood doesn't turn up much in this House, although he continues to be a member and draw his salary."
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews...ates.4273228.jp

[avsp]

FWIW, (just in case some havent kept abrest), the Labour party suffered a 22.5% swing & the scottish nationalist party won the bye-election by less than 500 votes on quite a high turnout.

Usuallyin bye-election voter dissatisfaction in manifest by not voting at all, but this time their seems to've been a very strong desire to punish Brown.party by voting for the SNP.

The exact timing of the election is important. Parliament has now stopped sitting & MP's are off on their holidays supposedly making party leadership campaigns more difficult to organise. Also tye day after Brown had a big policy conflab with the unions. His massive over-use of Blair-ish hand gestures at this meeting hasnt done him any favours either. He seems reluctant to play to his strengths &/or makes his weaknesses his strengths. He could easily play up his dour serious image & turn it to his advantage. His efforts to appear more 'human' & 'happier' always fall flat & are used against him, "When he smiles he looks as if he's sh*tting a sea urchin" is my favourite

The knives are out but theres no clear new favourite yet.

The economic downturn probably makes the party unlikely to retain power in the next general election. Brown is seen by some as a liability & any new leader is going to have to be in place before Xmas really in order to have cred in a general election due before May 2010.

Personally I doubt that they'll get it together to replace Brown