Why Obama is wrong about the surge

kinggovernor · 07-22-2008, 03:20 PM

Obama on the Surge: "Had Those Political Factors Not Occurred, I Think That My Assessment Would Have Been Correct"

July 22, 2008 1:56 AM

"I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence" in Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said in January 2007. "In fact, I think it will do the reverse."

In Baghdad yesterday, after a day spent witnessing the reduction in violence in Iraq, Obama was asked by ABC News' Terry Moran if he was wrong..

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate, and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

Obama went on to say "the fact is that there was a combination, I think. Look, the troops and General Petreaus and Ambassador Crocker deserve enormous credit for that and that is credit that I have given publicly. And I will say, again this is the danger of politics is that I can probably show you a couple of other quotes, in which I said 'Look, whenever you put US soldiers on the ground, in those particular areas, they are going to have an impact.' So it wasn’t any doubt that you have an additional 20 thousand troops and where they are right there it is going to have an impact."

"Well, you were saying that it would not make a significant dent in the violence," Moran said.

"In the violence in Iraq overall, right," Obama acknowledged. "So the point that I was making at the time was that the political dynamic was the driving force between that sectarian violence. And we could try to keep a lid on it, but if these underlining dynamic continued to bubble up and explode the way they were, then we would be in a difficult situation. I am glad that in fact those political dynamic shifted at the same time that our troops did outstanding work."

Political Punch

Obama thinks that the Surge and the "Petraeus doctrine" had nothing to with the Al Anbar Awakening. The Surge was more than just an additional number of boots on the ground, it was a complete change in strategy. As I have alluded to in earlier posts, I was a part of the change in thinking.

First off, lets discuss the team that Gen. Petraeus selected:

H.R. McMaster et al: Petraeus selects team of warrior-intellectuals

Source: MSNBC (2-4-07)

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the new U.S. commander in Iraq, is assembling a small band of warrior-intellectuals -- including a quirky Australian anthropologist, a Princeton economist who is the son of a former U.S. attorney general and a military expert on the Vietnam War sharply critical of its top commanders -- in an eleventh-hour effort to reverse the downward trend in the Iraq war.

Army officers tend to refer to the group as "Petraeus guys." They are smart colonels who have been noticed by Petraeus, and who make up one of the most selective clubs in the world: military officers with doctorates from top-flight universities and combat experience in Iraq.

Essentially, the Army is turning the war over to its dissidents, who have criticized the way the service has operated there the past three years, and is letting them try to wage the war their way....

I know the most about Col. McMaster, his PhD dissertation was "Dereliction of Duty", about how the Joint Chiefs of Staff got the Vietnam War wrong. It is a great read and is highly acclaimed as a blue print of how military officers are supposed to dissent the proper way when civilian leaders blunder military policy.

Prior to Gen. Petraeus being selected as Commanding General in Iraq, he rewrote the Army's counterinsurgency manual. This changed the thinking of how to handle the insurgency problem in Iraq and its number 1 method was leaving the big bases and setting up much smaller bases inside the cities and towns.

This was where I was personally involved. I spent the first 3 months of my tour in Iraq at a very large base (thousands of troops and miles of space) where life was pretty easy. I lived in a relatively comfortable trailer that had air conditioning, there were showers, hot food etc etc. We would drive to places and go on patrol there, but it might have been months since someone had been in the area. It was very dangerous and we were taking heavy casualties. I was in the Anbar province, which is almost all Sunni.

This all changed when we changed strategies, and set up shop in the towns. I shared a house with a squad of US Marines and squad of Iraqi soldiers, and we lived in the town. We patroled the same area every day and we got to know the town and its people. We shopped at their stores and protected their kids when they went to school. Not surprisingly, the people began to like us more as they saw that we were not there to harm them.

Do you remember when the Sunnis boycotted the first election and then began to participate afterwards? (Iraq's Sunnis Turn Out in Large Numbers, Unlike in January Election) That had a lot to do with the work that we did, we handed out copies of their potential Constitution, told them about when voting would happen etc. Unfortunately my unit left before they voted, but they did in large numbers. But the important thing to remember in the improvement in relations between the Sunnis and the US Marine Corps was an important factor in the Awakening.

So General Petraeus took this counterinsurgency idea of complete immersion into the community and spread it across Iraq and it has worked. He has gotten away from the larger bases and pushed down the concept of the much smaller bases. This is why the Surge is more than just an additional 20k troops, a concept that Obama cannot seem to grasp.

kombayn · 07-22-2008, 11:03 PM

I give credit, where credit is due. I'm glad General Petraeus is fixing this mess that Tom Ridge, Donald Rumsfeld, Tommy Franks, Dick Cheney and George W. Bush caused. Some of the elites obviously secured a tight-leash on Bush and his administration to fix this mess. While I'm still against the war as a whole, I give major props to General Petraeus but Obama still has a right to say that stabilizing Iraq and getting out was the right thing to do. I'm happy to read on the internet that the Iraqi Prime Minister is pushing for a time-table, he wants them out of the country so they can start fixing the civil problems themselves. That'll show the true test of democracy.

kinggovernor · 07-23-2008, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by kombayn

I give credit, where credit is due. I'm glad General Petraeus is fixing this mess that Tom Ridge, Donald Rumsfeld, Tommy Franks, Dick Cheney and George W. Bush caused. Some of the elites obviously secured a tight-leash on Bush and his administration to fix this mess. While I'm still against the war as a whole, I give major props to General Petraeus but Obama still has a right to say that stabilizing Iraq and getting out was the right thing to do. I'm happy to read on the internet that the Iraqi Prime Minister is pushing for a time-table, he wants them out of the country so they can start fixing the civil problems themselves. That'll show the true test of democracy.

I don't know what Tom Ridge had to do with planning the Iraq War but I think Gen. Petraeus was arguing from a point of strength, where else could the Bush administration turn.

saabguy · 07-23-2008, 11:12 AM

ironic that it was the surge that obama didn't support and mccain did which is leading the iraqi PM saying they prefer obama's 16 month timeline...

...and obama is still saying he doesn't/didn't/still wouldn't have supported the surge.

kinggovernor · 07-23-2008, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by saabguy

ironic that it was the surge that obama didn't support and mccain did which is leading the iraqi PM saying they prefer obama's 16 month timeline...

...and obama is still saying he doesn't/didn't/still wouldn't have supported the surge.

Obama wants to just cut ties no matter what the situation looks like, it would be ironic if he inherits a secure situation because John McCain helped to create it that way.

saabguy · 07-23-2008, 03:45 PM

...and shitty if he plays the "i told you so" card even though the success would have been because of a move he didn't support...

kinggovernor · 07-23-2008, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by saabguy

...and shitty if he plays the "i told you so" card even though the success would have been because of a move he didn't support...

that is exactly what he is angling for, if things in Iraq continue down this path things are really winding down. The Marine Corps has been trying to get out of Iraq for months now and committing additional troops to Afghanistan.

Smull · 07-23-2008, 06:30 PM

The surge worked great, and Obama was wrong about the surge. Gen. Peteraues did an amazing job, hes one of our military's greatest minds. I do still want to see us out of Iraq reasonably soon however, and things like 56 permanent bases makes me nervous.

kombayn · 07-23-2008, 07:11 PM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I don't know what Tom Ridge had to do with planning the Iraq War but I think Gen. Petraeus was arguing from a point of strength, where else could the Bush administration turn.

Tom Ridge was the first Secretary of Homeland Security. He had say in Iraq policy. Petraeus was brought in to clean-up a huge mess that was created by Bush's former administration, who fucked up so royally that more than half had to resign from their posts willingly and not-willingly.

C4Casey · 07-23-2008, 11:55 PM

Yeah, Tom Ridge was the Secretary of Homeland Security, not the DoD. Homeland Security does not dictate foriegn policy, or war policy, at all. War planning lies solely within the DoD's, and President's, domain.

kinggovernor · 07-24-2008, 12:56 AM

Originally Posted by Smull

The surge worked great, and Obama was wrong about the surge. Gen. Peteraues did an amazing job, hes one of our military's greatest minds. I do still want to see us out of Iraq reasonably soon however, and things like 56 permanent bases makes me nervous.

Both Presidents are looking at moving most troops out in their first term, that is an encouraging sign