When we at CQ Politics published our first race ratings for the 2008 congressional elections, it seemed likely that Democrats would pick up some House and Senate seats -- expanding the majorities the party won with its big upsurge in the 2008 elections. But only the most optimistic Democrat, or ...
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11-02-2008, 12:01 PM
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| Stay classy!  Independent  
| A Year of CQ Politics Rating Changes: Steady Growth for Dems When we at CQ Politics published our first race ratings for the 2008 congressional elections, it seemed likely that Democrats would pick up some House and Senate seats -- expanding the majorities the party won with its big upsurge in the 2008 elections. But only the most optimistic Democrat, or the most pessimistic Republican, would have predicted that the Senate and House races would break so expansively the Democrats' way, or that such a vast majority of the changes CQ Politics has made to its ratings would reflect stronger opportunities for Democratic pickups. The ratings -- which run a spectrum from Safe Democrat to Democrat Favored to Leans Democratic to No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican to Republican Favored to Safe Republican -- are regularly re-evaluated based on developments in the individual races and in national politics. And since November 2007, Democratic chances improved in 14 Senate races and 74 House races. For the Republicans, there's not much to cheer about: their chances have improved in just two Senate and 8 House races. There are multiple reasons behind these changes. The die was cast by a national political atmosphere which, much to the Republicans' dismay, did not improve after 2006, as President Bush's unpopularity and a sharp economic downturn weighed down the GOP. More than two dozen Republicans, sensing that they would spend another two years in the minority in the next Congress, chose to retire, while few Democrats did. That gloominess spread, as the Republican Party had difficulty recruiting top-tier candidates to defend their open seats or challenge Democratic incumbents, even some of those who on paper looked vulnerable. The Democrats, meanwhile, have been much more successful at raising money for their congressional campaign committees than the GOP and those committees are sharing their bounty with their challengers and open-seat candidates running for seats currently held by Republicans. Scandals have changed the nature of a few races. A note of caution: just because a rating moved more in favor of the Democratic candidate in a particular race, it doesn't mean that the Democrat will necessarily win. Republican candidates are still favored, slightly or strongly, in many of the races in which the Democrats' prospects have improved. But the Democrats' ability to "spread the playing field" is forcing the Republicans to spend their resources more broadly, raising the possibility of more Democratic takeovers -- and forcing the GOP to mostly play defense instead of staging strong raids to takeover Democratic-held seats. The list below documents the race in which CQ Politics has changed its ratings. CQ Politics Race Rating Changes Favoring Democrats Senate Seats Alaska: Ted Stevens, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Democratic Colorado: Wayne Allard, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Democrat Favored Georgia: Saxby Chambliss, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: No Clear Favorite Iowa: Tom Harkin, D One year ago: Democratic Favored Six months ago: Democratic Favored Today: Safe Democratic Kansas: Pat Roberts, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Republican Favored Kentucky: Mitch McConnell, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Mississippi Special Election: Roger Wicker, R (replaced Trent Lott, R, who resigned) One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Montana: Max Baucus, D One year ago: Democratic Favored Six months ago: Safe Democrat Today: Safe Democratic New Hampshire: John E. Sununu, R One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic New Mexico: Pete V. Domenici, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Democratic Oregon: Gordon Smith, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite South Dakota: Tim Johnson, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Safe Democratic Today: Safe Democratic Virginia: John Warner, R, retiring One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic House Races Alabama 2: Terry Everett, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Alabama 3: Mike D. Rogers, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Alaska At-Large: Don Young, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic Arizona 1: Rick Renzi, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Leans Democratic Arizona 3: John Shadegg, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican California 3: Dan Lungren, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored California 4: John T. Doolittle, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite California 26: David Dreier, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored California 46: Dana Rohrabacher, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored California 50: Brian P. Bilbray, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Colorado 4: Marilyn Musgrave, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Democratic Connecticut 2: Joe Courtney, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored Connecticut 4: Christopher Shays, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Florida 8: Ric Keller, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Democratic Florida 18: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Florida 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Florida 24: Tom Feeney, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Democratic Florida 25: Mario Diaz-Balart, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Georgia 12: John Barrow, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democrati Today: Democrat Favored Idaho 1: Bill Sali, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: No Clear Favorite Illinois 8: Melissa Bean, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored Illinois 10: Mark Steven Kirk, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Illinois 11: Jerry Weller, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Leans Democratic Illinois 13: Judy Biggert, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Illinois 14: Bill Foster, D One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored Indiana 2: Joe Donnelly, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic Indiana 3: Mark Souder, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Indiana 7: Andre Carson, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Safe Democratic Indiana 8: Brad Ellsworth, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic Indiana 9: Baron P. Hill, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored Kentucky 2: Ron Lewis, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Louisiana 1: Steve Scalise, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Louisiana 4: Jim McCrery, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Louisiana 6: Don Cazayoux, D One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: No Clear Favorite Louisiana 7: Charles Boustany Jr., R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Maryland 1: Wayne T. Gilchrest, R, defeated in primary One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: No Clear Favorite Massachusetts 5: Niki Tsongas, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic Michigan 7: Tim Walberg, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Michigan 9: Joe Knollenberg, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Democratic Minnesota 1: Tim Walz, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored Minnesota 2: John Kline, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Minnesota 6: Michele Bachmann, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: No Clear Favorite Mississippi 1: Travis W. Childers, D One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic Missouri 9: Kenny Hulshof, R, running for governor One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Republican Nebraska 2: Lee Terry, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Nevada 2: Dean Heller, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Nevada 3: Jon Porter, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Jersey 3: H. James Saxton, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Jersey 5: Scott Garrett, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Republican Favored New Jersey 7: Mike Ferguson, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Mexico 2: Steve Pearce, R, running for Senate One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican New York 13: Vito J. Fossella, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Democrat Favored New York 19: John Hall, D One year ago: Safe Democrat Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored New York 25: James T. Walsh, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Democrat Favored New York 26: Thomas M. Reynolds, R, retiring One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican New York 29: John R."Randy" Kuhl Jr., R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Democratic North Carolina 10: Patrick T. McHenry, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored North Carolina 11: Heath Shuler, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic Ohio 1: Steve Chabot, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Ohio 7: David L. Hobson, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Ohio 16: Ralph Regula, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic Ohio 18: Zack Space, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Democrat Favored Pennsylvania 3: Phil English, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 4: Jason Altmire, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored South Carolina 1: Harry E. Brown Jr., R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican South Carolina 2: Joe Wilson, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Texas 7: John Culberson, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Texas 10: Michael McCaul, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Texas 17: Chet Edwards, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Safe Democrat Today: Safe Democratic Virginia 2: Thelma Drake, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Virginia 5: Virgil H. Goode Jr., R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Virginia 10: Frank R. Wolf, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Virginia 11: Thomas M. Davis III, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Democrat Favored Wyoming At-Large: Barbara Cubin, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite CQ Politics Race Rating Changes Favoring Republicans Senate Seats Alabama: Jeff Sessions, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Safe Republican South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Safe Republican House Races Alabama 5: Robert E. "Bud" Cramer, D, retiring One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: No Clear Favorite Florida 16: Tim Mahoney, D One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Republican Kentucky 3: John Yarmuth, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Leans Democratic New Hampshire 1: Carol Shea-Porter, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 6: Jim Gerlach, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Republican Favored Pennsylvania 11: Paul E. Kanjorski, D One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: Safe Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 12: John P. Murtha, D One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: Safe Democratic Today: Leans Democratic Texas 22: Nick Lampson, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: No Clear Favorite Mississippi 1: Travis W. Childers, D One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic Missouri 9: Kenny Hulshof, R, running for governor One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Republican Nebraska 2: Lee Terry, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Nevada 2: Dean Heller, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Nevada 3: Jon Porter, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Jersey 3: H. James Saxton, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Jersey 5: Scott Garrett, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Republican Favored New Jersey 7: Mike Ferguson, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite New Mexico 2: Steve Pearce, R, running for Senate One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican New York 13: Vito J. Fossella, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Democrat Favored New York 19: John Hall, D One year ago: Safe Democrat Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored New York 25: James T. Walsh, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Democrat Favored New York 26: Thomas M. Reynolds, R, retiring One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican New York 29: John R."Randy" Kuhl Jr., R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Leans Democratic North Carolina 10: Patrick T. McHenry, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored North Carolina 11: Heath Shuler, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Safe Democratic Ohio 1: Steve Chabot, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Ohio 7: David L. Hobson, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Ohio 16: Ralph Regula, R, retiring One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Democratic Ohio 18: Zack Space, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Democrat Favored Today: Democrat Favored Pennsylvania 3: Phil English, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 4: Jason Altmire, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Democrat Favored South Carolina 1: Harry E. Brown Jr., R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican South Carolina 2: Joe Wilson, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Texas 7: John Culberson, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Texas 10: Michael McCaul, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Texas 17: Chet Edwards, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Safe Democrat Today: Safe Democratic Virginia 2: Thelma Drake, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Leans Republican Virginia 5: Virgil H. Goode Jr., R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Leans Republican Virginia 10: Frank R. Wolf, R One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Republican Favored Virginia 11: Thomas M. Davis III, R, retiring One year ago: Safe Republican Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Democrat Favored Wyoming At-Large: Barbara Cubin, R, retiring One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: No Clear Favorite CQ Politics Race Rating Changes Favoring Republicans Senate Seats Alabama: Jeff Sessions, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Republican Favored Today: Safe Republican South Carolina: Lindsey Graham, R One year ago: Republican Favored Six months ago: Safe Republican Today: Safe Republican House Races Alabama 5: Robert E. "Bud" Cramer, D, retiring One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: No Clear Favorite Florida 16: Tim Mahoney, D One year ago: No Clear Favorite Six months ago: No Clear Favorite Today: Leans Republican Kentucky 3: John Yarmuth, D One year ago: Democrat Favored Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: Leans Democratic New Hampshire 1: Carol Shea-Porter, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 6: Jim Gerlach, R One year ago: Leans Republican Six months ago: Leans Republican Today: Republican Favored Pennsylvania 11: Paul E. Kanjorski, D One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: Safe Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite Pennsylvania 12: John P. Murtha, D One year ago: Safe Democratic Six months ago: Safe Democratic Today: Leans Democratic Texas 22: Nick Lampson, D One year ago: Leans Democratic Six months ago: Leans Democratic Today: No Clear Favorite source: CQPolitics.com - http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081102/pl_cq_politics/politics2979100 [link] | ||||
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