How much do you trust futures markets? v.2006midterms

[Thorgrim]

If you look at intrade.com go to politics...

The shares have it that the GOP will lose the House
Seat by seat, Democrats are favored to pick up 6 seats

So, going by the futures market of today, Democrats take control of Congress

I heard people in 2004 saying "look at the futures market, they are going for Bush they are better than polls"

Sure enough what looked like a small Bush lead with undecideds that would break for Kerry enough for him to win...turned out to be wrong...now the polls were pretty accurate, but polls don't take into account the undecideds rule or GOTV, etc

I think almost every pollster, if they had to bet, would say Kerry would have gotten barely 49 with Bush a solid 49...winning the popular vote...but Kerry would win New Mexico and Iowa...he didn't

So what are your thoughts?