Oct7,NEWSWEEK: Bush Approval 33%, Dems have 11+ Generic Ballot edge

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 01:31 PM

Fully 53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win control of Congress next month, including 10 percent of Republicans, compared to just 35 percent who want the GOP to retain power. If the election were held today, 51 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democrat in their district versus 39 percent who would vote for the Republican.

...

Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has fallen to a new all-time low for the Newsweek poll: 33 percent, down from an already anemic 36 percent in August. Only 25 percent of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, while 67 percent say they are not. Foley’s disgrace certainly plays a role in Republican unpopularity: 27 percent of registered voters say the scandal and how the Republican leadership in the House handled it makes them less likely to vote for a Republican Congressional candidate

NEWSWEEK Poll: GOP in Meltdown - Newsweek Politics - MSNBC.com

I'm curious with the next story seeming to be the out of control situation in Iraq, (GOP Sen Warner calling for 'all options' in the next 90 days) and gas prices already have taken their big fall...and they already passed all their bill...what will they run on in the next 4 weeks that will DRASTICALLY sway voters? Because right now, they are headed for a rout

http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/r..._comp_oct6.pdf

CAMPAIGN RACE RANKINGS: 2006 House Races

Stylerod · 10-07-2006, 01:36 PM

I couldn't find the poll questions or details. Did you see it anywhere?

motivez · 10-07-2006, 01:50 PM

Wow, looks like it really might hit below 30% if things continue the way they are.. assuming that poll is accurate, anyway.

6SpeedTA95 · 10-07-2006, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by Stylerod

I couldn't find the poll questions or details. Did you see it anywhere?

No which is interesting. I was looking at a poll yesterday (might be the same one) and they polled 52% democrats, 36% republicans and 12% independants....

thats not a fair representation at all...I wonder if this is the same poll. Without the poll info and results its impossible to tell.

JaJae · 10-07-2006, 05:49 PM

I thought his numbers had been higher due to Sept 11 spikes, gas prices and immigration stuff. I've been hearing about his numbers goin up, not down.

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 06:56 PM

RealClearPolitics - Polls - Archives

thats a republican leaning website, and the information is non-auditory

6SpeedTA95 · 10-07-2006, 07:28 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

RealClearPolitics - Polls - Archives

thats a republican leaning website, and the information is non-auditory

So what does that mean? You dont have the polling data? There's a huge difference among polls from the last 3 weeks and by huge I mean as large as 9 points. Without the data, the questions and those polled its impossible to make a logical unbiased assumption.

ballz2wallz · 10-07-2006, 07:32 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

I thought his numbers had been higher due to Sept 11 spikes, gas prices and immigration stuff. I've been hearing about his numbers goin up, not down.

Yeah that's what everything says:

bush approval - Google News

The first page I didn't post because it's Thorgrim's links

JaJae · 10-07-2006, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

RealClearPolitics - Polls - Archives

thats a republican leaning website, and the information is non-auditory

That shows what appears to be an average in the high 30s, not the low thirties as the OP states. And much of the recent ones of the past few weeks have him in around 40% or more.. nowhere near 33% The Newsweek poll seems to be the outliar and it also seems to be the one withholding polling info...

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

So what does that mean? You dont have the polling data? There's a huge difference among polls from the last 3 weeks and by huge I mean as large as 9 points. Without the data, the questions and those polled its impossible to make a logical unbiased assumption.

Someone questioned that Bush was going down, looking at all these polls you can see he has gone from mid40s to mid-to-high 30s

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 07:48 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

That shows what appears to be an average in the high 30s, not the low thirties as the OP states. And much of the recent ones of the past few weeks have him in around 40% or more.. nowhere near 33% The Newsweek poll seems to be the outliar and it also seems to be the one withholding polling info...

I said the average was in the low 30s?

The RCP average was 43%, its now 38%...thats a big jump from the AVERAGE of many polls...and its below what Clinton had going into before the 94 blowout

about newsweek, poll data and internals aren't released immediately, and this has been a pattern for Newsweek, not some weird new situation, but, for reliability, back in 05:

NBC/Wall Street Journal 10/8-10/05
39 54 7 -15
.

Pew 10/6-10/05
38 56 6 -18
.

AP-Ipsos * 10/3-5/05
39 58 -19
.

CBS 10/3-5/05
37 58 5 -21
.

Newsweek 9/29-30/05
40 53 7 -13

Seems they were little more optomistic about Bush then, by a point or so...

JaJae · 10-07-2006, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

I said the average was in the low 30s?

No you said his approval rating was 33% without also saying that the other 9 most recent polls (that actually have data) have him in the high 30s low 40s.

The presumption in this thread was that Bush's approval rating is low and falling. When it's not as low and rising.

If I cited a poll with no data that said his current approval rating is 7 points higher than the current 2 week average at 47% you'd also bring it to my attention that that was not the case and would be poor judgement on my part to follow or harp on that number.

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 08:27 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

No you said his approval rating was 33% without also saying that the other 9 most recent polls (that actually have data) have him in the high 30s low 40s.

The presumption in this thread was that Bush's approval rating is low and falling. When it's not as low and rising.

If I cited a poll with no data that said his current approval rating is 7 points higher than the current 2 week average at 47% you'd also bring it to my attention that that was not the case and would be poor judgement on my part to follow or harp on that number.

its not rising, like I said, it went from an average of 43% about 2-3 weeks ago to 38% today

The 6 most recent polls have him at at or below 39%...6 polls are a good way to gauge it because the 6 most recent polls are the only ones to take October into account

9 polls is an number someone would use if they wanted to use numbers stretching back into two weeks in order to find numbers suitable to their argument rather than taking an objective look

JaJae · 10-07-2006, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

its not rising, like I said, it went from an average of 43% about 2-3 weeks ago to 38% today

The 6 most recent polls have him at at or below 39%...6 polls are a good way to gauge it because the 6 most recent polls are the only ones to take October into account

9 polls is an number someone would use if they wanted to use numbers stretching back into two weeks in order to find numbers suitable to their argument rather than taking an objective look

Fair enough.

6SpeedTA95 · 10-07-2006, 09:58 PM

We still need the poll results and questioning to know how accurate this is. If this is the one that was floating around yesterday with a 16% difference between reps and dems I'd hardly call it accurate. If we've got more of an even spread then I'd say its more accurate.

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 10:03 PM

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

We still need the poll results and questioning to know how accurate this is. If this is the one that was floating around yesterday with a 16% difference between reps and dems I'd hardly call it accurate. If we've got more of an even spread then I'd say its more accurate.

No, its not

Howard Fineman was on MSNBC last night saying they hadn't finished getting their numbers together and from what I understood they were going to work out the final numbers this morning and got them out then

Thorgrim · 10-07-2006, 10:05 PM

Here is something:

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 5-6, 2006. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"

Bush: Job Ratings (1)