general economic discussion

DosEquis · 06-05-2009, 10:32 AM

Job cut figures are the best they have been in 8 months and are on the decline for the 4th month in a row. The market has shown slow but steady progress. The bad news is unemployment is still 9.4%. This puts a fairly significant dent on the budget deficit as we have a few million people not paying taxes like they were. Low unemployment is a factor in maintaining George Bush and Brobama style budgets.

The highest it has been in recent history was in 1982 when it reached 10.8%, and was roughly 10% for good while. Mortgage rates were between 14-15% at this time too. The recession at that time was a lot longer based on those two figures alone. Ronny Reagan didn’t put out 700b like George Bush did before he left, and Ronny didn’t put another 780 billion in like Brobama. We seemed to have passed the peak of this economic trouble as we have had 4 months of improvement in jobs and market results, and it also seems that fans of Keynesian economic theories will have justification for the sticky moistness in their pants.

What that also could mean is Brobama, the media, and others could be exaggerating when they are like “this is the worst since the depression”. Fuel prices were equal to that of $4/gallon in the late 70s/early 80s only they had lines at gas stations. 10% unemployment, record deficits (at that time), 15% interest rates on homes, the cold war was at its peak. Kids were training to duck and cover under fear of nuclear weapons. I think we have been in worst shape and recovered. I think most of our problem was panic and lameness…but they had to make it scary to sell the idea of 1.5 trillion dollars in government spending to bail out banks, bail out autos, tax cuts, and ‘stimulus’ spending.

Maybe they should rename it to "Worst economic crisis since Ronald Reagan"

Dispatcher · 06-05-2009, 02:45 PM

To suggest that this was all purely fear mongering by the Pres is to ignore the massive layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures, and other symptoms of an economy in the intensive care unit with one foot in the grave.
I sometime wonder if we shouldn't have let the banks fail, as their greed and incompetence got them were they are. Yet I also believe that if we had we not taken the extreme measures that were taken, our economy might have collapsed (or been on the verge of it), sending ripples across the globe.

Photon1001 · 06-05-2009, 03:51 PM

um, did I just read that gas prices were $4/gallon in the 70/80's? I don't remember that. Anyway, did anyone catch this ep of S.Park?

Pinewood Derby - 1306 - Watch - South Park - X Epsiodes

What if we all just realized how stupid money really is?

Meshell · 06-05-2009, 04:39 PM

If for no other reasons, the size of our debt, the interest payments on that debt, world confidence in the dollar as a result of our debt, our International Polices, and the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler are indicative of why this recession is potentially more detrimental to our economy than the one during Reagan's term.

Photon1001 · 06-05-2009, 04:54 PM

Is it really that detrimental though? I mean countries that have no trouble violating the so-called human rights and exploiting cheap labor, countries that have no trouble at all refusing to guarantee freedom and prosperity to their citizens should really shine in this new global economy. Heck, with any luck, they'll surely be our new overlords soon and we can all live happily ever after in one great big Communist hellscape.

Meshell · 06-05-2009, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by Photon1001

Is it really that detrimental though? I mean countries that have no trouble violating the so-called human rights and exploiting cheap labor, countries that have no trouble at all refusing to guarantee freedom and prosperity to their citizens should really shine in this new global economy. Heck, with any luck, they'll surely be our new overlords soon and we can all live happily ever after in one great big Communist hellscape.

Actually, China is about to become the world's largest manufacturer.

Dispatcher · 06-05-2009, 05:52 PM

Originally Posted by Meshell

Actually, China is about to become the world's largest manufacturer.

Walmart should be very happy to hear that. As for the rest of us....

Photon1001 · 06-05-2009, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by Meshell

Actually, China is about to become the world's largest manufacturer.

ya, exactly who I'm talking about, actually. They've started to allow some economic freedom to a few lucky ppl who play ball for their party, everybody else, sorry, they get to spend their entire lives slaving away in the sweatshops with little to no personal freedom whatsoever. Of course, we don't hear much about them though, but why should we, millions of them spend their entire lives locked away in windowless buildings. Meanwhile the chosen few get pretty makeovers for their smog-hazed cities, still smoggy, of course, but with brand new McDonalds and Dominoes Pizzas and the other shiny stuff they allow the reporters to see.

Meshell · 06-05-2009, 07:16 PM

Originally Posted by Photon1001

ya, exactly who I'm talking about, actually. They've started to allow some economic freedom to a few lucky ppl who play ball for their party, everybody else, sorry, they get to spend their entire lives slaving away in the sweatshops with little to no personal freedom whatsoever. Of course, we don't hear much about them though, but why should we, millions of them spend their entire lives locked away in windowless buildings. Meanwhile the chosen few get pretty makeovers for their smog-hazed cities, still smoggy, of course, but with brand new McDonalds and Dominoes Pizzas and the other shiny stuff they allow the reporters to see.

They aren't as restrictive economically speaking as your post suggests. Some of their disparity is akin to any other country, it's easier to open a business if you have money. But there is a more profound difference between rural and Metro Chinese versus Americans.

The Chinese that are living in their cities are well educated, buying cars, and saving money. While the rural Chinese are fairly poor.

I tried a few months ago to track down the number of Americans living in China, and as of 11/05 USA today reported :

BEIJING — The number of Americans living in China has reached a historic high of 110,000. They are teachers, hairdressers, diplomats, travelers, students and business fat cats. There's even a bluegrass banjo player and singer who is scheduled to perform in Mandarin here Friday night.

And countless more from Europe and other parts of Asia. China has matured and realizes the importance of a strong economical and educational backbone. They are investing billions in Universities .

When Andrew Chi-chih Yao, a Princeton professor who is recognized as one of the United States's top computer scientists, was approached by Tsinghua University in Beijing last year to lead an advanced computer studies program, he did not hesitate

China wants to transform its top universities into the world's best within a decade, and is spending billions of dollars to woo big-name scholars like Yao and to build first-class research laboratories. The effort is China's latest bid to raise its profile as a great power.

China is experiencing rapid growth for a number of reasons and India is another country that is on the fast track to super-power status.

DosEquis · 06-05-2009, 07:28 PM

We were in real bad shape, i don't deny it. I dont say it to ignore massive job loss and tough times. But to say "this is the worst crisis since the great depression" is pretty much not true. We have been worse shape. Our debt is more than it ever has been but that massive debt started with Ronald Reagan.

Conservatives on this board were defending the deficits and debt during Bush's term by pointing at the GDP, saying BUT BUT its only this % of the gdp. We are now at 12 trillion in debt and we have about a 12 trillion GDP.

We have been in massive debt before..see WW2.

The Great Catpiss · 06-05-2009, 10:00 PM

Get ready for $4 gallon gas prices this summer...

11 trillion is what is on paper, but we are committed to closer to 80-90 trillion.

The Great Catpiss · 06-05-2009, 10:05 PM

Originally Posted by DosEquis

We were in real bad shape, i don't deny it. I dont say it to ignore massive job loss and tough times. But to say "this is the worst crisis since the great depression" is pretty much not true.

It depends on your take of the situation. The #1 S&P forecaster today is claiming the ball is still rolling for one more big crash and nothing will stop it. Basically, if he is right, then it is the worst crisis since the great depression.

kinggovernor · 06-05-2009, 11:27 PM

democrats love to use the Great Depression as a scare tactic, they did in 1987 and they did it to get Obama elected. When I posted about Obama using scare tactics they would respond that 'Hope' got him elected. Now a few months later people are beginning to see through his smoke signals

Dispatcher · 06-06-2009, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

democrats love to use the Great Depression as a scare tactic, they did in 1987 and they did it to get Obama elected. When I posted about Obama using scare tactics they would respond that 'Hope' got him elected. Now a few months later people are beginning to see through his smoke signals

No, Bush linking Iraq with terrorism was a scare tactic.
The Great Depression was real.

kinggovernor · 06-06-2009, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by Dispatcher

No, Bush linking Iraq with terrorism was a scare tactic.
The Great Depression was real.

and 9/11 was real.

constantly saying that "we are in the worst crisis since the Great Depression" was a scare tactic.

Photon1001 · 06-06-2009, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by Meshell

They aren't as restrictive economically speaking as your post suggests. Some of their disparity is akin to any other country, it's easier to open a business if you have money. But there is a more profound difference between rural and Metro Chinese versus Americans.

The Chinese that are living in their cities are well educated, buying cars, and saving money. While the rural Chinese are fairly poor.

I tried a few months ago to track down the number of Americans living in China, and as of 11/05 USA today reported :

And countless more from Europe and other parts of Asia. China has matured and realizes the importance of a strong economical and educational backbone. They are investing billions in Universities .

China is experiencing rapid growth for a number of reasons and India is another country that is on the fast track to super-power status.

basically though, none of this is good for America.

...and the bank bailout was real too, and so was Enron. They're walking around with your money, ppl, touring China even.

Dispatcher · 06-06-2009, 05:52 PM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

and 9/11 was real.

constantly saying that "we are in the worst crisis since the Great Depression" was a scare tactic.

Then why are economists saying that? They have nothing to gain politically.

kinggovernor · 06-06-2009, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by Dispatcher

Then why are economists saying that? They have nothing to gain politically.

only certain economists were saying that, that was a line repeated over and over by certain politicians.

Photon1001 · 06-06-2009, 07:15 PM

yeah, thats the thing about economics not being an exact science, hell its hardly a science at all, but how can it be since the world's economies being based on the values of monies as collective delusions.

Meshell · 06-06-2009, 07:49 PM

Originally Posted by DosEquis

We were in real bad shape, i don't deny it. I dont say it to ignore massive job loss and tough times. But to say "this is the worst crisis since the great depression" is pretty much not true. We have been worse shape. Our debt is more than it ever has been but that massive debt started with Ronald Reagan.

Conservatives on this board were defending the deficits and debt during Bush's term by pointing at the GDP, saying BUT BUT its only this % of the gdp. We are now at 12 trillion in debt and we have about a 12 trillion GDP.

We have been in massive debt before..see WW2.

I'm not sure it's a fair to compare our debt/percentage of GDP of World War II to our present state. For instance, it wasn't a massive debt when compared to our 11 to 12 trillion dollar debt. You can only make a comparison of the two by using a percentage of our GDP.

The WWII debt was small enough that the US public was able to finance it by purchasing War Bonds and such. As compared to our present state of having to rely on foreign governments and investors. Not to mention, the interest that we are paying on our debt is like a snowball rolling in the snow. Getting bigger and bigger.

And during World War II, many of our manufacturing plants were re-tooled to produce War related goods which had a fairly stable purchaser. Not to mention, it created a lot of jobs not only in our manufacturing plants but elsewhere as well.

WW II contributed to the line of thought that war is good for an economy. But in the 21st century with our high tech Army our cost runs into the billions and trillions for fighting a war.

It's difficult to find comparisons between our economy in World War II and the 21st century.