2w5days until election: Couldn't look much worse for GOP

[Thorgrim]

First, lets look at futures markets, which hit 29% for GOP control today...thats right, only 29% chance of the GOP holding on to the house.

Ok articles:

Public support for Republicans' control of the U.S. Congress has eroded to its lowest point since the party took over 12 years ago. And with just 19 days until the midterm elections, both President George W. Bush and his party are in worse shape with voters than Democrats were in the October before they lost their House and Senate majorities in 1994.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll shows that voters' approval of Congress has fallen to 16% from 20% since early September, while disapproval has risen to 75% from 65%. That 16% approval statistically matches Congress's lowest point in the 17 years the Journal and NBC have polled, set in April 1992 at the height of a congressional scandal involving members' overdrafts from their House bank.

By 52% to 37%, voters say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress after the Nov. 7 election. That wide 15-point Democratic advantage is another record in the history of the Journal/NBC poll.
...

Back then, voters were split over President Bill Clinton, with 46% approving of his performance and 45% disapproving. Mr. Bush's job-approval rating, which had crept up to 42% in early September, has fallen back to 38%. A 57% majority disapproves of his performance.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article...0412623296795-

16% approval in Congress, 38% in the WH, and a 15pt Ballot advantage? All these numbers CRUSH what the GOP had in 1994

New House Polls:
IL-8: Melissa Bean (D) leads David McSweeney (R), 47% to 44%
IL-10: Mark Kirk (R) leads Dan Seals (D), 46% to 44%
NY-19: John Hall (D) leads Sue Kelly (R), 49% to 40%
NY-20: Kristen Gillibrand (D) leads John McSweeney (R), 54% to 41%
NY-25: Dan Maffei (D) leads James Walsh (R), 51% to 43%
NY-29: Eric Massa (D) leads Randy Kuhl (R), 52% to 40%

That's 4 more house pickups (bean is our most vulnerable Dem, that she's leading by 3 should tell you something)

If we use Electoral Vote, that means Dems today, 2 weeks 5 days couple hours from election day...are set to pickup 30 seats

If we use all available polling, then its set at 30-38 seat pickup, a 29-45 vote advantage that is, at least 4 more seats of an advantage than the GOP had 1994 when it took over...a majority that large would probably take atleast...12 years to dislodge However I think it will be longer, people picked the GOP because they thought they'd run things cleaner, and they haven't, why give them another chance? The religous right is flaking off and going green in some areas, too hard right in others, the NRA gun voters are going to be appeased by a Congress that won't vote anymore gun bans in...it looks more like a majority that will last 20-30 years


Some people are going to say "hey, aren't you calling this election a little early, we still have almost 3 weeks!"

Well historically, by the 2nd or 3rd week of elections, voters views harden, thats when these polls have been taken, it would take a really good week this week to change their minds, how about even a decent week?

Look at the Nightly News netcast at 10pm EST:
MSNBC - NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams Front Page

The Wednesday one for October 18th, when it gets posted...I don't think I've seen a more depressing and anti-GOP broadcast that was objective...terrible news for GOP voters, 11 soldiers killed in Iraq, interviews with soldiers saying "why are we here to get hit with bombs that were meant for a shia or sunni" (why are we here in this civil war) "we shouldn't be here", court martials starting for soldiers charged with murder and rape...civil war battle breaking out OUTSIDE baghdad

This was the 3rd week the GOP could have turned things around, instead Iraq swallows up the news...Thursday will almost certainly be a continuation of the violence, perhaps a more indepth story following the shocking 11 soldiers in one day episode, and Friday isn't a big news day...then we're back to Monday/Tuesday, aka 2 weeks until election

What could happen that could turn around the national mood in 2 weeks before the elections? One can argue nothing, majority of Americans thought that gas prices following were an election plot...imagine 2 weeks before the election we capture bin laden or something along those lines...people have made up their minds already and will dismiss much as just "13th hour ploys"

There are already 16 seats "in the bag" and even if you say "dont count those chickens" there are 20 other seats that are leaning Dem to pick from to fill any of the slots if something goes terribly wrong (the candidate is found killing a little boy or something ridiculous)

1 AZ-08
2 TX-22
3 FL-16
4 NY-26
5 NY-24
6 CO-07
7 IN-08
8 NC-11
9 PA-10
10 IN-09
11 IN-02
12 PA-06
13 PA-07
14 NM-01
15 OH 15
16 OH 18

Game over

[Thorgrim]

the nbc link is up
MSNBC Video

brutal...2w5days to go and republicans have this as the nightly news? man, sucks to be them

[RMNIXON]

Wait for it!

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Wait for it!

Why don't you invest in futures trading democratic gains, you could make a fortune with all those assurances you have from a man who had his man lose the popular vote to Al Gore of all people, and then another terrible politician comes along in the form of Kerry and he almost loses by 60,000 votes...

All summer he has been running his machine to turn the poll numbers in his favor, it hasn't worked

[Thorgrim]

The list of most-imperiled incumbents now includes Reps. Heather A. Wilson (N.M.) and Curt Weldon (Pa.), a top GOP strategist said.

By this reckoning, roughly a dozen GOP-controlled House seats are "gone, no ifs, ands or buts about it," said the strategist, who discussed internal party deliberations on the condition of anonymity.

A number of GOP operatives said privately yesterday that they now see minimum losses of perhaps 18 seats, with 25 to 30 a more likely outcome. Democrats need 15 to take control of the House.

WP: GOP aims to scare up big turnout - washingtonpost.com Highlights - MSNBC.com

Nice friday story for this weekend

2 full weeks left to turn this around, who is putting their money on the GOP?