Reuters - Public discontent with President George W. Bush and the Iraq war has propelled Democrats to within sight of seizing the U.S. House of Representatives and now gives them hope of taking control of the Senate.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Public discontent with President George W. Bush and the Iraq war has propelled Democrats to within sight of seizing the U.S. House of Representatives and now gives them hope of taking control of the Senate.
With Bush's Republicans increasingly on the defensive, close Senate races in a handful of states are likely to decide the balance of power.
Two weeks before the November 7 election, Democrats hold significant poll leads over four Republican incumbents -- in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island.
With Democrats needing to pick up six seats to obtain a majority, the Senate fight could boil down to whether they win tight races for two of three Republican seats in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia and hold a competitive New Jersey seat.
"The Senate is hanging by a thread," said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "It will be decided by one or two seats either way."
For the House, where Democrats need 15 more seats to win control, Republican officials rushed in the past week to shore up emerging at-risk seats in Minnesota, Idaho, Washington and Pennsylvania.
With the battleground expanding to several House seats not considered competitive a month ago, some analysts now predict Democratic gains of more than 20.
In the Senate, a similar Democratic takeover seemed unlikely for most of the year. That changed as the public's mood soured and Democrats gained momentum.
"What looked like a distant possibility six months ago is a very real possibility right now," said Sen. Charles Schumer (news, bio, voting record) of New York, head of the Senate Democratic campaign committee.
Democrats in striking range of victory in Southern states like Virginia and Tennessee, where the party has not fared well recently, and in the swing state of Missouri, show the depth of the Republican plunge, analysts said.
A new poll released on Saturday showed more than half of Americans, 55 percent, would like to see Democrats take control of Congress. The poll by Newsweek of 1,000 likely voters found that 57 percent of those surveyed disapprove of Bush's job performance and just 35 percent approve.
'HOVERING ON THE EDGE'
"When you have close races in states like that, you know it's a Democratic year," said Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia. "The Senate is hovering on the edge between Republican and Democratic control."
In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford (news, bio, voting record) Jr. has run a surprisingly strong campaign against Republican Bob Corker for the open seat of retiring Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen (news, bio, voting record)'s campaign-trail missteps opened the door for Democrat Jim Webb.
The Missouri race between Republican Sen. Jim Talent (news, bio, voting record) and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill has been the country's closest and is expected to go down to the wire.
Republicans scrambled to funnel resources to the most competitive races. A report that the party was giving up on Ohio and Republican Sen. Mike DeWine (news, bio, voting record) drew heated denials and an ad buy on his behalf from the Republican National Committee.
The Senate Republican campaign committee also made a small advertising buy in Rhode Island and said it was not giving up on Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee (news, bio, voting record)'s re-election.
"We would not be putting money in places where we don't have a shot," Republican Senate committee spokesman Brian Nick said. "These are not charitable donations."
Democrats are almost exclusively on the offensive, with New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez their only high-risk incumbent. Menendez, who has faced ethics allegations, faces Republican Tom Kean Jr., son of a popular former governor.
Republicans hope to turn the debate back to traditionally strong issues of national security and the war on terrorism, although recent polls show Democrats overtaking them even on that turf.
Democrats have benefited from voter discontent with Bush, the Republican-led Congress and Iraq, and a strong desire for change.
"Swing voters, independents and moderates are unhappy with the administration and with the Republican Congress. It's going to be hard to change those dynamics in two weeks," said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.
10-22-2006, 11:50 AM
