Dick Morris: Election a Toss Up!

[RMNIXON]

VOTE.COM | Column | '06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP

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By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.
With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.
Here's the evidence:
* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.
* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.
* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.
* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.
* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)
Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.
None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.
Why are Republican fortunes brightening?
The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.
Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.
Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.
Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.

Eileen McGann co-authored this column.

__________________________________________________ ____________

Well, I am not yet confident for the House. But this is the guy who got Clinton a re-elected in 1996 after the 1994 Disaster so he doth know what he talks about!

Prediction: Some close and possibly contested races? We may not know who runs what on November 8th? Stop measuring the drapes!

[JaJae]

I really hope the Democrats win. I don't understand how they lost in 04. And I really don't understand how they could lose now.

This is very disheartening for me.

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

Originally Posted by JaJae

I don't understand how they lost in 04. And I really don't understand how they could lose now.

Because the American people are sheep.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

Because the American people are sheep.

Not really. The general media coverage and outlook was very much pro-Kerry. Even the polls were in favor of Kerry. Nobody was really happy with Bush. People were voting against a candidate.

The same argument could be made if Kerry won. "the people are sheep". It's not really an explanation.

[Thorgrim]

If you wanted to snap people back into reality... did you have to pick the one wingnut who:

Insisted, for months, that Hilary Clinton was going to be the 2004 Democratic nominee?
That Bernie Karik would be confirmed for sure as Homeland Security chief?
That Osama bin Ladin was dead?
That Social Security privatization would be a winner for Bush?
That Donald Rumsfeld would be fired?
That Hurricane Katrina had been successfully deflected to Katherine Blanco, and there would be no lingering fallout for the Bush White House?
That the violence in Iraq was petering out?
That the elections would cause the violence in Iraq ot peter out?
That the new government of Iraq would cause the Iraqi people to turn on the insurgents?
That the invasion of Lebanon would be a huge success for Israel?
That Hilary Clinton was in trouble in her NY Senate race?
That Ned Lamont would lose the CT. Primary?
That Hilary would be in danger of losing the Democratic primary to Tasini?
That the GOP would retake the Virginia Governor's office held by the Democrats?
That Democrats would be paying a heavy price in 2006 for being increasingly critical of the war in Iraq?
That Democrats would be paying a heavy price for John Murtha's criticism of the Bush White House?
That Democrats would never be favored to take the House because the concept of Speaker Nancy Pelosi was 'terrifying' to the American people?
That Howard Dean wouldn't win the DNC chair?
That Howard Dean would be fired from his post at the DNC?
That Howard Dean's 50 state strategy would be a disaster?
That black and hispanic women would be flocking to the GOP because of Condi Rice?
That black and hispanic men would be flocking to the GOP because the GOP fielded black and hispanic candidates?
That George Allen would be the GOP conservative's frontrunner in '08, and he would be easily re-elected in '06 because Democrats couldn't compete with the GOP in Virginia?
That the border debate would tilt the House even further to the right when the votes were tallied after '06?
That George W. Bush could use Afghanistan's success to pound the Democrats in '06 even if Iraq was 'rough'?
That Democrats couldn't run on National Security?
That John McCain isn't a 'serious' threat to win the GOP nod in '08?

That's just the tip of the iceberg

Listen, back in 1996, he was part of a campaign based on a theme, Morris was not a genius and neither was Clinton to realize "hey guys, lets...since the country just moved right...lets...go right!"

The real miracle victory was 92 with Carville

Anyway, to say Morris was worthless in 96 would be pushing it, but ever since he was found with some worthless hooker and dragged out of the DC circles in disgrace, he has used any airtime he can get to dish his hatred about democrats, his has allowed all his bitterness to cloud his judgement

It's not only that, but he blatantly contradicts himself, in one opinion he'll write that Lieberman is doomed if he continues in his assuredly low turnout primary (which it didnt turn out to be), and then in the next column he is saying Lieberman is going to win and completely disregards his previous column talking about Liebermans sure loss

Not to mention how the democratic momentum and everything else was supposedly completely destroyed by the british airlines plot, and Bush's approval would "go up 10 points ATLEAST" to 47-49%+...well...we all know it didn't come even fucking close to that

He's a total fucking idiot

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

If you wanted to snap people back into reality... did you have to pick the one wingnut who:

Daily Kos :: Comments Dick Morris sez GoP is catching up!

Just citing the source in case anyone wants to read more.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Daily Kos :: Comments Dick Morris sez GoP is catching up!

Just citing the source in case anyone wants to read more.

I thought he came up with that himself

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I thought he came up with that himself

It was obvious it was formatted as a copy/paste. He didn't come of as taking credit for the words. But I felt it was very interesting and figured if anyone wanted to read more information like it they could from the direct link.

Besides, we typically like to give credit where information comes from on this forum. So if people find us through a digg or search, they'll have resources to conduct similar research if they choose and not leave the forum as a dead end.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by JaJae

It was obvious it was formatted as a copy/paste. He didn't come of as taking credit for the words. But I felt it was very interesting and figured if anyone wanted to read more information like it they could from the direct link.

Besides, we typically like to give credit where information comes from on this forum. So if people find us through a digg or search, they'll have resources to conduct similar research if they choose and not leave the forum as a dead end.

just a little internet humour, that is all

[garbagemanlb]

The point is he is wrong more often than he is right.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Daily Kos :: Comments Dick Morris sez GoP is catching up!

Just citing the source in case anyone wants to read more.

Why the hell would I cite someone I know on DKos with providing a list?

I actually for a moment tonight was trying to work with him to expand the list

I recognize the list, why the hell would I paraphrase it, did anyone on here seriously think I was more intelligent because I posted that list?

besides, half the post was mine, I only cut and paste the list

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Not really. The general media coverage and outlook was very much pro-Kerry. Even the polls were in favor of Kerry. Nobody was really happy with Bush. People were voting against a candidate.

The same argument could be made if Kerry won. "the people are sheep". It's not really an explanation.

There are plenty of uniformed voters in both parties. The only question remains is how it balances out?

[Thorgrim]

The polls were in favor of Kerry Myth:

From a Republican website RCP

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 46.9%
Bush +2.0

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46%
Bush +4
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.2% 48.5%
Bush +1.7
TIPP (936 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 46.9% 44.3%
Bush +2.6
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48%
Kerry +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1573 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 49% 47%
Bush +2
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 50% 47%
Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 49%
Kerry +1
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 51% 45%
Bush +6

So out of all those polls, only Fox News (irony) and ARG had Kerry leading, and ARG was within one point of what Kerry actually got

So the average of polls showed Bush would win by two points...what happened

OMG BUSH WON BY TWO POINTS! 50.7 - 48.3

Oh noes, the polls were right!

You guys need to sit back, relax, and chill, in a lot of CLOSE elections, you can just check out the final batch of polls from the last 3-4 days, and you'll know is going to win, just add in a few factors and you can apply it to 99% of elections (like in 2004 add the common knowledge that the election was so hyper-partisan that undecideds were not going to break for Kerry)

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Why the hell would I cite someone I know on DKos with providing a list?

I actually for a moment tonight was trying to work with him to expand the list

I recognize the list, why the hell would I paraphrase it, did anyone on here seriously think I was more intelligent because I posted that list?

besides, half the post was mine, I only cut and paste the list

Wow, calm down. The vast majority of DailyKos copy/pastes aren't cited. This one had a wealth of information and I figured the citation would be useful for someone interested in reading more. When other people copy paste articles from crooksandliars, hotair, etc it comes with a citation for people who want to read more.

Also it helps the forum if we have citations. If someone found that post and wanted to know where it came from or wanted to read more it helps to have the link. This way they don't hit a dead end while on the forum. Most posters have a habit of citing their sources and don't copy/paste words that are not their own without some form of citation. That's good for the quality of the forum. And it's the only reason I posted the link.

[Thorgrim]

i was in the discussion, i knew a link to the discussion didn't give anymore interesting information at the time, so i didnt link

[WickedLou9]

from what I heard on NPR they are saying that the GOP has locked in 200 something and the Dems have locked in 200 something and the remaining 30 or so seats are a toss up. I forget the exact numbers. I don't want to be overly optimistic, but that doesn't sound like everyone is making it sound.. as if the Dems are already in there taking measurements for drapes.

[Thorgrim]

The GOP only has 160 seats locked...72 GOP seats are in play

cqpolitics.com

[Donkey®]

While I am happy to give the Dems a chance to make a difference, will they? I tend to think no.

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

I don't want to be overly optimistic, but that doesn't sound like everyone is making it sound.. as if the Dems are already in there taking measurements for drapes.

Even the President made a joking comment about "Drape" measurments today!