George Bush on Democrats' predictions

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by Bush

If [Democrats'] electoral predictions are as reliable as their economic predictions, Nov. 7th is going to be a good day for the Republicans.

[Thorgrim]

If Bush's electoral predictions are as reliable as their job creation predictions, Nov 7th is going to be a good day for the Democrats

Also:
In a new research paper, three political scientists attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections.

"Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast-our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats-and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty."
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=657