So this is how Dems may win?

RMNIXON · 10-26-2006, 07:04 PM

A right kind of Democrat - Los Angeles Times

A right kind of Democrat

GOP-held House seats are threatened by a crop of conservative foes.
By Janet Hook, Times Staff Writer
October 26, 2006

He is pro-business and antiabortion. He is an evangelical Christian and an avid hunter. But, unexpectedly, Heath Shuler is a Democrat, and he is running for Congress in North Carolina.

Shuler is part of a phalanx of unusually conservative Democratic candidates who may deliver crucial victories over GOP incumbents and help their party win control of the House.

Republicans are ringing alarms about what the House would be like if the GOP lost control: a throwback to the unreconstructed liberalism of big-government activism, tax increases and a weak-kneed defense policy. They point with Halloween-season horror to the likely lineup of Democratic committee chairs, including Henry A. Waxman (D-Los Angeles) and other liberal old-timers.

But, like Shuler, many of the Democratic candidates most likely to be elected are cut from a different cloth. Sixteen of them have been endorsed by the Blue Dogs, a coalition of conservative Democrats. Several used to be Republicans. Shuler was recruited to run as a Republican a few years ago but opted not to.

In the waning days of the election campaign, candidates are increasingly debating what a Democratic-controlled Congress would be like: Would the tone and agenda be set by the Heath Shulers of the party, or its Henry Waxmans?

With so many conservative-leaning candidates at the forefront of the Democratic effort, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) has, at least for now, stuck to a minimalist agenda that steers clear of grand, liberal ambitions. Instead, Democratic leaders are focusing — and almost all serious Democratic candidates are campaigning on — a more limited, six-point agenda that includes raising the minimum wage, repealing tax breaks for oil companies, restoring college tuition tax breaks, cutting Medicare drug costs and other plans they believe could draw bipartisan support.

The limited agenda has won endorsements even from Democrats as conservative as candidate Ken Lucas of Kentucky — a former House member who, before he left Congress in 2004, voted "present" rather than vote for Pelosi in the traditional party-line vote for House speaker.

Republicans charge that the apparent moderation in Democratic candidates is a smokescreen meant to obscure their support for a party steered by liberals and initiatives such as tax increases.

"They claim to be pro-life, pro-gun and anti-tax, yet their first vote in Congress would be to elect the most liberal speaker in American history," said Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which aims to enlarge the GOP majority in the House. "In the first hundred hours they will roll back tax cuts and open investigations into the administration."

Even some centrist Democrats privately fret that the chairmen-in-waiting may be harboring pent-up desires for a robust liberal agenda and partisan investigations that could hurt the party. "There's a desperate need for fresh blood, a general changing of the guard," said one moderate Democrat who asked not to be named.

An influx of new blood from the party's right wing could test party leaders' ability to maintain the remarkable unity they have forged during their years in the minority. Among the party's House challengers, 33 are conservative enough to be endorsed by either the Blue Dogs or the political arm of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. Nearly all are on the Cook Political Report's latest list of Democrats most likely to win seats now held by Republicans. The party needs to pick up 15 seats to win a majority in the House.

With more conservative Democrats in the House, President Bush could have a new opening to reach across the aisle. But so far, he shows no signs of preparing to do so. One of the few issues he cites as a priority for next year is his plan to overhaul Social Security — a nonstarter among Democrats of all political stripes.

Bush's senior advisors have been meeting to plan next year's agenda, but apparently none of those discussions have focused on contingency planning for a Congress led by Democrats.

"I believe I'll be working with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican-controlled Senate," Bush said at a Wednesday news conference.

If they won a majority in the House, Democrats would be severely limited in what they could accomplish legislatively without control of the Senate and with Bush in office. Still, even a slim majority would give committee chairmen power to conduct investigations and issue subpoenas — tools they want to use to scrutinize Bush's policy on Iraq and other issues they believe the GOP bypassed.

In line to assume those powers is a cadre of unapologetic liberals of an older generation. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.), first elected to the House in 1955, is poised to return to the Energy and Commerce chairmanship he held before Republicans won the House in 1994. David R. Obey (D-Wis.) would return as Appropriations chairman. Waxman is in line to be chairman of the Government Reform Committee, an important venue for investigations.

In addition, minority-group members would gain great power in a Democratic House. African Americans are in line to become chairmen of the committees on taxation (Charles B. Rangel of New York), the judiciary (John Conyers Jr. of Michigan) and intelligence (Alcee L. Hastings of Florida).

Republicans are spotlighting that lineup, portraying it as extremist. They jumped on Conyers for calling for impeachment hearings against Bush, an idea Pelosi flatly dismisses. Republicans delight in pointing out that Hastings, before becoming a House member, was impeached as a federal judge.

Democrats say they believe such tactics are designed to mobilize conservatives and will not eclipse their efforts to present a more moderate face to swing voters. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last year made a point of recruiting conservative candidates and even some former Republicans for this year's midterm election, in some cases muscling out more-liberal contenders who seemed likely to lose in Republican-leaning territory.

"The Democrats are going to retake the House of Representatives by electing conservative and moderate Democrats," said Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), a member of the Blue Dog Coalition. "We're going to move our party back to the middle."

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So the Pelosi left are just riding on the coatails of these less than Liberal Democrats? Go Figure!

Too bad it won't stop them from going super liberal with even the most slender majority!

Thorgrim · 10-26-2006, 07:22 PM

yeah, first 100 hours is going to be to force every pregnant women to have an abortion, every kid to go to a homosexual brainwashing camp, and releasing all child predators (like Mark Foley)

and ofcourse we all know the most democrats can win would be 15 seats...nevermind every political forecaster (those who predicted Bush to win in 2004, and GOP pickups in 2002) saying its going to be a 20-25+ seat gain

RMNIXON · 10-26-2006, 07:46 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

yeah, first 100 hours is going to be to force every pregnant women to have an abortion, every kid to go to a homosexual brainwashing camp, and releasing all child predators (like Mark Foley)

Pathetic!

RMNIXON · 10-26-2006, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

and ofcourse we all know the most democrats can win would be 15 seats...nevermind every political forecaster (those who predicted Bush to win in 2004, and GOP pickups in 2002) saying its going to be a 20-25+ seat gain

I guess you don't get out much or never bothered to read my Dick Morris thread? The consensus is that the Dems will win the House. I concede that. But ther tidal wave prediction is more in the minds of a few left rah rahs. The poll predictions and punditry have been all over the map and that won't change next week either. I would temper my confidence just a bit.

Thorgrim · 10-26-2006, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I guess you don't get out much or never bothered to read my Dick Morris thread? The consensus is that the Dems will win the House. I concede that. But ther tidal wave prediction is more in the minds of a few left rah rahs. The poll predictions and punditry have been all over the map and that won't change next week either. I would temper my confidence just a bit.

Dick Morris is not a political forecaster

To be a political forecaster, you need a team, years of predictions made on a system, respectability...Morris has none of these...but here I'll show you some:

Conservative Republican Robert Novak, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, etc

Novak himself has 39 years of experience

http://www.humanevents.com/enpr/current_enpr.html
The Cook Political Report
Sabato's Crystal Ball - About the Crystal Ball

There are more but I'm not going to do your homework for you

ballz2wallz · 10-26-2006, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Dick Morris is not a political forecaster

No, he's a political analyst.

garbagemanlb · 10-26-2006, 09:08 PM

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

No, he's a political analyst.

And a bad one at that.

ethyl · 10-26-2006, 09:17 PM

R's will keep the House and lose the Senate. It's all about teh money.

Polls right now mean about as much as the ones that predicted Kerry won.

Thorgrim · 10-26-2006, 09:26 PM

Originally Posted by ethyl

R's will keep the House and lose the Senate. It's all about teh money. Polls right now mean about as much as the ones that predicted Kerry won.

actually, they predicted Bush was going to win, do a thread search I'm not going to repost it for the 99th time

The average poll of the final polls: 2+ pt Bush victory

What did he win by...2pts!

OMG its magic!

RMNIXON · 10-26-2006, 11:07 PM

Hey, I put of the Barron's Data. Between 80% and 90% accurate. You didn't like that either. Wonder why?

But back to my thread. Look at the political shift of the Dems in this article. This does not sound like the party of Howard Dean or Nanci Pelosi? The party that gave Joe Lieberman the boot!

Queen Nanci may not get as many party line votes as she thinks!

Thorgrim · 10-26-2006, 11:21 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Hey, I put of the Barron's Data. Between 80% and 90% accurate. You didn't like that either. Wonder why?

But back to my thread. Look at the political shift of the Dems in this article. This does not sound like the party of Howard Dean or Nanci Pelosi? The party that gave Joe Lieberman the boot!

Queen Nanci may not get as many party line votes as she thinks!

She doesn't need liberal party line votes

All those blue dogs are for minimum wage hikes, if they force the Dem party to become more centrist...you know what they'd call that? The new majority party for the next 60 years

and your Barrons article is laughed at by Conservative Republicans who would have every vested interest in believing it

ballz2wallz · 10-26-2006, 11:48 PM

It's the only way the Dems can win; ultra-liberal Dems will never win.

RMNIXON · 10-26-2006, 11:50 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

She doesn't need liberal party line votes

The new majority party for the next 60 years

Now you are losing it.

But I am glad you so loundly proclaim the progressive liberal revolution dead.

Thorgrim · 10-27-2006, 12:06 AM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Now you are losing it.

But I am glad you so loundly proclaim the progressive liberal revolution dead.

What revolution? The liberals in the 1930s that didn't give blacks desegregation? The liberals in 1960s that forced us into a pointless war in vietnam? The liberals of more recent times who have lost election after election

Every movement makes compromises, every generation gets more and more liberal, it is inevitable, a moderate from 1949 would be an extreme right-winger today, a moderate from today will be an extreme right winger in a decade or two

motivez · 10-29-2006, 04:29 AM

Very liberal people aren't going to be winning in Very conservative districts, that's just common sense.

More conservative liberals have a shot though, when conservatives see the people currently in power aren't living up to their end of many bargains and promises made..