Connecticut Senate Race down to 8pts (Rasmussen Oct 29th)

[Thorgrim]

Connecticut:
Lieberman (I) 48%
Lamont (D) 40%
Schlesinger (R) 9%
-Rasmussen Premium Section, October 29th

At the beginning of the month, Lieberman was up by 11 (with leaners). Perhaps the big news is that Schlesinger has reached 9%. Before this, he had been around 5%

It's considered general knowledge that with Lieberman on the 7th-9th slot depending on what district, Alan's surging numbers, the republican govenor helping at the top of the ticket, and Alan's taking away solely from Lieberman voters, that the 9% by election day more accurately means 14%. That drains Liebermans vote to 43%.

43% Lieberman, 40% Lamont...now throw into this the very superior GOTV operation Lamont has in place, and how absolutely fanatical Lamont voters are (they'll stay in a blizzard to vote for him) many people believe that Lamont will really get 5-6% more than his last polling, so thats:

43.5% Lamont
42.5% Lieberman
14% Alan

You may sit back and think "hey, its still an 8pt lead!" Well some political experts are saying Pederson can win against Kyl if he's behind 6pts come election day because of the situation in Arizona with the various races all pro-Dem, CT is even more complicated, so 8pts so do-able

I'm not predicting, I am just reporting half of what the political experts are saying and half of what the liberal blogosphere is saying.

If you want to be pro-Lieberman, there is an argument the numbers could break this way:
Alan gets 12%, Lamont get's 43%, and Lieberman holds on with 45%

[naturefreak]

VERY IMPORTANT: What are the beginning and end dates during which this polling data was actually collected? (I'm assuming it's already a day or two old if its already posted on Rasmussen and so would not reflect any movement over the weekend, from the NYT endorsement, etc.) Could you the poster please reply with the polling dates? Thanks!

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by naturefreak

VERY IMPORTANT: What are the beginning and end dates during which this polling data was actually collected? (I'm assuming it's already a day or two old if its already posted on Rasmussen and so would not reflect any movement over the weekend, from the NYT endorsement, etc.) Could you the poster please reply with the polling dates? Thanks!

Polling date is the Day/Evening of Saturday October 28th

All other polling data is still unreleased

[6SpeedTA95]

I cant wait to see what happens in connecticut...

[motivez]

I am really hoping that ballot position + low excitement on Lieberman's end + high excitement in the Lamont camp + this month's violence in Iraq proving Lieberman wrong again = Lamont victory.

But, that said, having a very excited base doesn't always mean victory.. as we saw with Dean.. but luckily, Lamont has had no major missteps like Dean did, so maybe I'll be surprised.

[JaJae]

Back up to 12. I think this is a lock for Lieberman.

[motivez]

I'm hoping that people simply don't know how to poll this race because of how strange it is, and that on election day, we're going to see Lieberman tossed out of there along with a number of other politicians that stopped serving the people a long time ago..

I'd honestly consider 5 seats + Lieberman a "retaking" of the Senate for Democrats.