Dear Tea Party...

[Donkey®]

Not even close.


Tea Party fails to brew in Republican primaries | Richard Adams | World news | guardian.co.uk

Originally Posted by article

Tea Party fails to brew up a storm in Republican primaries
Primary results in Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina tonight are more pieces in the 2010 midterm election jigsaw puzzle

Party primaries in Indiana may not match election fever in the UK but today was another step towards the Republicans and Democrats picking their teams for November's midterm congressional showdown.

There were primary contests held in Indiana, Ohio and North Carolina, and the results rolling in tonight don't suggest any huge upsets but do offer a few pointers to some crucial elections in November.

Given the prevailing wisdom that the Democrats are going to get a hiding come November, it's worth remembering that the post-primary season is when matters get serious. Until then, polling match-ups are generic or speculative. But when a nominated candidate's name actually fills a ballot line, then poll ratings change to reflect real life, rather than Incumbent versus Unnamed Opponent.

Otherwise, the interesting take-away is the exceptionally low turnout in the primaries overall, and the failure of the Tea Party movement to make a big impression on the Republican primaries, suggesting that its momentum may have stalled and that its influence on November's results may not be profound.

Indiana
If the Tea Party was going to make a splash it was here in the Republican primary for Indiana's senate seat, the one vacated by the incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh. But instead, the nomination was won by a establishment GOP regular: Dan Coats, a former senator. The Tea Party faithful didn't like Coats and for good reason: his most recent employment was working as a lobbyist in DC, in particular for Goldman Sachs.

If Coats was vulnerable, he was saved by the Tea Party vote being split between two rivals, John Hostettler and Marlin Stutzman, with the former endorsed by Ron Paul and the latter backed by Jim DeMint and blogger Erick Erickson.

In the end Coats managed just 39% of the vote, with Stutzman (29%) and Hostettler (22%) trailing. That lack of enthusiasm may make him vulnerable to the unopposed Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth, but probably won't. The Goldman Sachs job won't help either.

Elsewhere in Indianapolis, a 14-term Republican congressman, Dan Burton, won renomination with just 30% percent of the vote in Indiana's fifth district, thanks to his six rivals splitting the remaining 70%. But it's a safe GOP seat. So why don't so many locals like Burton? "Burton's long tenure in Washington and a history of bizarre legislative initiatives and public displays made him the target of six opponents," according to the Indy Star.

North Carolina
The nail-biting senate nomination battle here was between two Democrats, North Carolina's secretary of state Elaine Marshall versus local politician Cal Cunningham, who was backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Although Marshall handily beat Cunningham by 37% to 27%, state rules mean that becaue she failed to get more than 40%, a run-off election between the two will be held on 22 June. All of which is good news for the Republican incumbent Richard Burr, a weak campaigner with poor poll standings who will benefit from the delay. In any case, the political tide means his vulnerability was always going to be difficult to exploit by the Democrats.

Similarly, vulnerable Tarheel Democrat congressman Larry Kissell may gain from the battle among Republicans to run against him. Wealthy conservative Tim D'Annunzio was the leader with 37%, whose campaign included "machine gun socials," fundraising shooting parties, billed as running from "6.30pm until the ammo runs out!" Even then D'Annunzio had to spend $1m of his own money.

Ohio
Ohio's open senate seat, caused by Republican George Voinovich's retirement was supposed to be an easy target for the handsome Rob Portman, running unopposed for the Republican nomination. But that latest polls show Portman with a surprisingly shallow lead over Lee Fisher, the state's deputy governor and Democratic nominee after his primary victory.

Portman's resume may be his weak point: he was appointed as the US's trade representative by George Bush, and later served in the White House for Bush, as his budget director – not exactly a high point in a resume. The Democratic party might have a chance here, especially if Ohio's Democratic governor Ted Strickland can hang on to his office.

The Tea Party seems to be over in Ohio, at least according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's analysis:

Tea Party activists who had rallied against the Ohio Republican Party didn't make a significant difference in statewide races on Tuesday, as GOP-endorsed candidates cruised to victory.

That's not to say they are not there, just that they don't seem to have had much impact on the outcome.

Keep trying though.

[Salty Dog]

I'm always torn between George Carlin and Jesse Ventura. Carlin always said "fuck voting, you're just voting the same guy in office no matter what letter he has branded to his forehead," while Ventura says voting "neither Democrat or Republican" is a plyth for real change. I guess I'm somewhere in the middle of that... !

If the Tea Party wasn't too closely tied with the GOP, like they are in many (but not all) states, I'd respect their movement alot more than I do.

[god is dead]

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

I'm always torn between George Carlin and Jesse Ventura. Carlin always said "fuck voting, you're just voting the same guy in office no matter what letter he has branded to his forehead," while Ventura says voting "neither Democrat or Republican" is a plyth for real change. I guess I'm somewhere in the middle of that... !

If the Tea Party wasn't too closely tied with the GOP, like they are in many (but not all) states, I'd respect their movement alot more than I do.

If they actually defended the Constitution instead of trying to rewrite it then real change would be coming.