Hurricane global warming link disputed

[ballz2wallz]

Global warming's effect on hurricane strength disputed in new report

MIAMI -- Scientists linking the increased strength of hurricanes over recent years to global warming have not accounted for outdated technology that may have underestimated storms' power decades ago, researchers said in a report published Friday.

and

Hurricane 'spike' debated

CAPE CANAVERAL - Studies that link a spike in hurricane intensity with global warming are spotting "artificial upward trends" because they rely on bad historical data, a paper suggested today in the journal Science.





out of curiosity, how many hurricanes did we have at this time last year? 6speed you know?

[Thorgrim]

Here are some key phrases:

it "MAY" dispute
the study "looks at only a small sampling of historical storm data"
"Landsea said he did not dispute global warming was occurring or that it could influence hurricanes; he said it simply was not proven by the storm information available."

and then ofcourse, the final nail is when another scientist speaks, showing that this is real science, not some fraud:

``They ignore the most significant finding from my Nature paper _ that Atlantic hurricane activity is highly correlated with sea surface temperature, which is comparatively well-measured,'' Emanuel said by e-mail from the Queen Mary 2, where he is lecturing on storms. ``This cannot be explained away by invoking rather qualitative arguments about data quality.''

Emanuel analyzed records of storm measurements made by aircraft and satellites since the 1950s. He found the amount of energy released in these storms in both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans increased, especially since the mid-1970s.

[motivez]

6 would know, seemed like we had a couple though

[Donkey®]

This is dumb. A thermometer isn't a hard thing to read. The gulf was warmer than normal last year. Warmer than normal gulf waters = more powerful hurricanes. I don't see the complication there.

[6SpeedTA95]

At this point last year I believe we had 3 hurricanes and a total of 6 named storms...but I'd have to check the records to know for sure.

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

This is dumb. A thermometer isn't a hard thing to read. The gulf was warmer than normal last year. Warmer than normal gulf waters = more powerful hurricanes. I don't see the complication there.

Thats pretty much it and the atlantic is warmer this year as well, its part of the interdecadal cycle.

[6SpeedTA95]

Just looked it up, it was 7 named storms at this point last year.

[motivez]

How many this year so far?

[Diesel66]

Dumb argument. Hurricane season is 20-30 years, there is a cycle of heavy storms. Then a cycle of light storms.

The records the 2005 season broke were from the 30s and 50s. If global warming was the main cause of the stronger hurricanes, the records would all be from the last 20 years or even less.




Motivez Two named storms so far.

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by motivez

How many this year so far?

2 named storms this year.

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

2 named storms this year.

strange isn't it?

[motivez]

I don't think anyone believes (or has suggested) that every consecutive year is going to automatically be worse than the one before it, even if they believe global warming is the culprit for increasing storm strength.

[Diesel66]

Originally Posted by motivez

I don't think anyone believes (or has suggested) that every consecutive year is going to automatically be worse than the one before it, even if they believe global warming is the culprit for increasing storm strength.

Actually idiots do believe that. All the about the 2006 season

[motivez]

It doesn't matter whether it's part of global warming or an "interdecadal cycle", everyone is predicting '06 to be a bad season.

That doesn't mean that year 3 will be worse than year 2 though.

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by motivez

I don't think anyone believes (or has suggested) that every consecutive year is going to automatically be worse than the one before it, even if they believe global warming is the culprit for increasing storm strength.

i thought the next 20 yrs were supposed to be as bad as last year

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

strange isn't it?

Definately unexpected, but judging from the current parameters we'll have our first hurricane within 2 weeks IMO.

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

i thought the next 20 yrs were supposed to be as bad as last year

There's approximately 15 years left in this cycle....there's debate about when it started, some say 1997 others say 2001.

[Diesel66]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

i thought the next 20 yrs were supposed to be as bad as last year

season started in mid 90s so 5-15 more years