Senate - Demmocrats pick up 6...all the leans and tossups except Tennessee (I see it the same way now) House - +27 Seats (25 vote majority...230-205 Congress...basically a flip of today...and GOP needing to win 13 seats to win back the House AZ-8 (Giffords) CO-7 (Perlmutter) FL-13 (Jennings) IA-1 (Braley) ...
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11-02-2006, 12:48 PM
| #1 | ||||
| Banned - Self Imposed  Progressive Philadelphia, PA 
| Pol Expert Dr. Larry Sabato makes final election predictions Senate - Demmocrats pick up 6...all the leans and tossups except Tennessee (I see it the same way now) House - +27 Seats (25 vote majority...230-205 Congress...basically a flip of today...and GOP needing to win 13 seats to win back the House AZ-8 (Giffords) CO-7 (Perlmutter) FL-13 (Jennings) IA-1 (Braley) NY-24 (Arcuri) NC-11 (Shuler) OH-18 (Space) PA-6 (Murphy) PA-7 (Sestak) PA-10 (Carney) IN-08, IN-09, IN-02 CT-2, CT-4, CT-5 AZ-5 TX-22 NM-1 KY-4 IL-6 WI-8 MN-6 (The Wetterling race) OH-15 NY-26 (Reynolds race) FL-16 FL-22 Governors races: +7 (29 Dem Governors, 21 GOP Govenors) Dems hold all, pickup: Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, and New York (Personally i think Alaska, Nevada or Idaho are going to go, making it a solid 30 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...=LJS2006110201 ^^ Larry Sabato is extremely respected and usually considered right-of-center in politics (he called Kerry losing or close to losing basically all of 04) So everyone should respect his opinion as he has a team and is one of the few national forecastors | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:10 PM
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| Dirty Liberal  Democrat South Jersey
| What if all this backfires and the historically complacent democratic voters don't turn out in big numbers because they see these polls and think they are so far ahead that it doesn't matter if they vote..  | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:11 PM
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| Never, never, never give up  Conservative Party High Point, NC
| Originally Posted by WickedLou9 Then Democrats will scream "foul" and try to blame everyone but themselves for the loss. As usual. 
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11-02-2006, 01:14 PM
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| Braccae tuae aperiuntur.  Reform Party NJ
| Originally Posted by WickedLou9 Florida, Ohio, Diebold, etc. There will be a scapegoat. I would hope after '04 the Democrats would have learned their lesson.
Last edited by JaJae; 11-02-2006 at 02:08 PM.. | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:17 PM
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| Never, never, never give up Conservative Party High Point, NC
| Originally Posted by JaJae There is no lesson to learn. Democrats don't "lose" elections. Elections are "Stolen" from them. Duh.
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11-02-2006, 01:18 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by WickedLou9 If you think the average voter checks out Larry Sabato...hmm...and ofcourse you have on the news Karl Rove screaming he is going to win...turnout will not be a problem
Diebold very well could steal the election, for either side...they are remarkable easy to hack However, if I had to blame anyone, it would be Rahm, Howard and Pelosi...its not like I was fond of them to begin with...but if we don't get our 25-30+ I'll blame the Dem House and DNC leadership Schumer has done an awesome job though, even if we ONLY gain 4 seats, thats a major accomplishment considering how few republican seats are up for grabs, and how red the states are...its nothing short of a miracle if we capture the Senate | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:19 PM
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| Dirty Liberal Democrat South Jersey
| Originally Posted by Stylerod oh come on now.
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11-02-2006, 01:20 PM
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| Dirty Liberal Democrat South Jersey
| Originally Posted by Thorgrim I don't see the dems capturing the senate. The House I think will go. But the senate. I'm just not feeling it.
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11-02-2006, 01:20 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by JaJae What lesson would that be?
All the polls averaged had Bush winning by 2+ in the final week | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:21 PM
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| Never, never, never give up Conservative Party High Point, NC
| Originally Posted by WickedLou9 Check out the headlines
republicans steal election - Google Search | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:23 PM
| #11 | ||||
| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by WickedLou9 You really got to look at it race by race...
3 pickups are in the bag (OH, RI, PA) despite having an overwhelming number of seats to defend, only 2 are serious...and the Dem machines in MD and NJ will not faulter at the last second and give a Dem with the lead a loss Tester still has 49-51 in the polls as a challenger...thats almost in the bag (+4) Webb has taken the lead well after the novel story broke...no reason for it to subside, if it holds over the weekend and sunday/monday polls show the same...Webb wins Missouri is probably why you're not feeling it...but the terrain favors the challenger in a statistical tie in a race that hasn't been hyper-partisan, plus McCaskill and Talent haven't been trading leads the past 5 polls, its been McCaskill by 1 or once by 3 That's 6, and they aren't really HARD to see...come a Democratic wave we could still pickup TN and AZ | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:25 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by Stylerod Diebold machines are easy to hack...its not like even saying "Bush stole the election!" it'd be like "rich bored republicans hire hackers to steal election" you can't say there is NO POSSIBILITY of that | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:27 PM
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| Braccae tuae aperiuntur. Reform Party NJ
| Originally Posted by Thorgrim RealClear Politics - Polls
The information you are providing is blatantly false. | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:29 PM
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| Never, never, never give up Conservative Party High Point, NC
| Originally Posted by Thorgrim Slim. About as possible as rich bored pissed off Democrats hiring hackers I guess.
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11-02-2006, 01:43 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by JaJae 1.5 is rounded to 2, basic math
Clearly not "blatantly false" | ||||
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11-02-2006, 01:45 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by Stylerod good enough for me
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11-02-2006, 01:55 PM
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| Banned  Conservative Government is another way to say Better Than You
| Originally Posted by Thorgrim And of course you think Democrats are just too good to hack the Diebold machines as well...like they did Lieberman's website
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11-02-2006, 01:57 PM
| #18 | ||||
| Braccae tuae aperiuntur. Reform Party NJ
| Originally Posted by Thorgrim Before you go and report more posts I'll explain basic math to you.
You said Bush was up in ALL THE POLLS by a margin of +2 during the final week of elections. I provided you with a link of all the major polls conducted in the final week. Elections that year were Nov. 2nd. So they conveniently highlighted the last week for you in the link I provided you. In that link you will find that Bush was up by a margin of 2+ in just 6 of the 16 polls conducted the final week before elections. Or roughly 38%. Your statement was false. I showed you a link to clear up misinformation. The election polls are very easy to find and source. Before giving statistics I would recommend you find the numbers. | ||||
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11-02-2006, 02:03 PM
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| Banned - Self Imposed Progressive Philadelphia, PA
| Originally Posted by JaJae Liar, post reported
Originally Posted by Thorgrim
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11-02-2006, 02:14 PM
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| Never, never, never give up Conservative Party High Point, NC
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