Missouri Senate: McCaskill (D) 49%; Talent (R) 48%

[Ron Burgundy]

Rasmussen Reports - Missouri's Senate race is shaping up to be a nail-biter to the very end. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Claire McCaskill hanging on to a one-point lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Jim Talent--49% to 48%.



Missouri's Senate race is shaping up to be a nail-biter to the very end. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Claire McCaskill hanging on to a one-point lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Jim Talent (news, bio, voting record)--49% to 48%.

Both candidates' numbers have moved slightly since the last poll conducted at the end of October (47% to 46%), but the gap between them remains a single point. Neither Talent nor McCaskill has yet to reach the 50% mark among voters.

This is our fifth poll in Missouri since the beginning of October. In four of the five, the candidates were within a point of each other (and the other found them two points apart). This race remains a Toss-Up in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

The race could not be closer when looking at the candidates' respective base votes: 92% of Democrats are supporting McCaskill and 91% of Republicans are backing Talent.

Both campaigns are pulling out the big guns in the final days of this ultra-competitive race. President Bush and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist each made visits to the Show Me State during the past week to stump for Talent while the Democrats' rising star, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, is scheduled to visit on McCaskill's behalf.

With one-third of voters (33%) indicating strong approval of his job performance, Missouri is one of the few states where President Bush can be an effective advocate for Republican candidates. Overall, 49% of Missourians approve of the president and 50% disapprove (45% strongly so).

Both Talent and McCaskill earn favorable ratings from 50% of voters. McCaskill's total unfavorable score (49%) is just one point higher than Talent.

The numbers are again close when looking at for/against vote ratios. Two-thirds (66%) of Talent voters are voting for him and 30% are voting against McCaskill. Sixty-three percent (63%) of McCaskill's supporters are casting positive votes for her and 31% are voting against Talent.

Half of all voters surveyed (50%) rate the situation in Iraq as "poor," yet 49% believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Forty-eight (48%) say they trust Talent over McCaskill (41%) on matters related to the situation in Iraq.

Voters are more evenly divided when it comes to who they trust on the economy--48% say Talent and 45% McCaskill.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports November 2, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.