2006 Election Forecasting and Results (House, Senate and Governors)

[Thorgrim]

House of Representatives:
(Inc means Incumbent)



Seats the Democrats will almost certainly pickup: (Solid Dem)


AZ-08: (OPEN) - Poll Average: 50% Giffords (D) – 35% Graf (R)
Info: RNCC completely gave up on the race and Giffords has a huge lead

NY-24: (OPEN) – One Independent Poll: 52% Acuri (D) - 43% Meier (R)
Info: Another abandoned race, Open NY seat in moderate district with huge coat tails for NY’s top ticket, and a big lead

CO-07: (OPEN) – Poll Average: 50% Perlmutter (D) - 42% O'Donnell (R)
Info: Open seat, Democratic leaning district, big lead plus Colorado Gubernatorial candidate (D) is going to give coat tails in a landslide win

OH-18: (OPEN) – Poll Average: 49% Space (D) – 38% Padgett (R)
Info: Bob Ney’s old seat, despite millions of dollars has been unable to gain on Space

IA-01: (OPEN) – Poll Average: 46% Braley (D) – 41% Whalen (R)
Info: NRCC gave up on the seat, and in a blue state in a blue district on a blue year, add in the polling…

IN-08:- Poll Average: 39% Hostettler (R-Inc) – 51% Ellsworth (D)
Info: Internal GOP memo said “Hosteller isn’t listening” and they gave up on the race after the consistent huge lead by Ellsworth

NC-11: – Poll Average: 43% Taylor (R-Inc) - 51% Shuler (D)
Info: Republican District but Shuler has been dominating in the polls this entire cycle, and the incumbent only barely won against a lesser candidate in 2004…2006 is a much different year.

PA-10: - Poll Average: 38% Sherwood (R-Inc) – 49% Carney (D)
Info: Everyone in this GOP district knows Sherwood tried to strangle his mistress, now they know he also tried to bribe her half a million to shut-up about it, GOP has given up on the race

NM-01: - Poll Average: 43% Wilson (R-Inc) – 51% Madrid (D)
Info: Solid challenger, democratic district, not very popular incumbent, democratic year and blue state

(Democrats +9)



Seats Democrats will most likely win by default:
(Likely Dem)


TX-22: - Polls are few and all over, but they all show Lampson (D) leading
Info: DeLay tried a little sly trick of winning the primary to show he had support and then leave the district so they’d have a special election for a replacement that would easily win his gerrymandered district. However, the courts ruled that was illegal and now Lampson and the Libertarian are the only ones running, no poll shows either candidate getting close to Lampson’s 36% reported in the lowest poll for Lampson, and the write-in GOP Candidate only got 28% of people who even had an idea of what to do come election day, barring a miracle this seat will go to Lampson by default because he will get around 40% and probably only 30% will be able to successfully write-in the candidate, 5-10% will fail, leaving only 20-25% for the libertarian candidate.

FL-16: (OPEN) - Only Independent Poll: 50% Mahoney (D) - 43% Negron (R)
Info: Mark Foley’s old seat, the ballot will be “Foley (R)” and “Mahoney (D)”, some are calling Negron’s moves a resurgence, but keep in mind this district is not overwhelmingly democratic and the then-popular Foley only had 48% two months ago, add in the fact that the Republicans MUST press the button for “Mark Foley” and the poll questions that give a lead to Mahoney even when placed against Negron…and you see a seat that will be defaulted to the Democrat. It is volatile, so it is not certain.

(Democrats +2)
+ (Democrats +9)...Democrats +11


Seats Democrats will likely win: (Tier 1 races)
(Lean Dem)


IN-02: (OPEN) - Poll Average: 44% Chocola (R) - 50% Donnelly (D)
Info: Donnelly has kept a solid lead, there are no big state races or initiatives to bring anyone out except people who want change or want to keep Chocola, and in an environment where it looks like all 3 competitive Indiana seats will be swept, this one is the least Republican district.

PA-07: Poll Average: Lead for (D) in the past month- Weldon (R-Inc) – Sestak (D)
Info: Weldon has been hit with FBI investigations in a year when voters are sick of corruption, especially Republicans. His seat was already a toss-up because it is in the Philadelphia suburbs which Rendell will carry by an overwhelming margin as he did in 2002, with the aforementioned problems, he has been written off by the RNCC.

PA-06: Poll Average: 44% Gerlach (R-Inc) - 48% Murphy (D)
Info: This is a re-match of 2004 where the Republican only won by 0.5%, turn to clocks to 2006, and I think it’s pretty obvious where this is going, the fact that it’s in the Philly Suburbs where Rendell’s GOTV always pulls hard and it’s almost a certainty

NY-25: Poll Average: 44% Walsh (R-Inc) - 49% Maffei (D)
Info: Democratic district with overwhelming NY top-ticket, add in the poll numbers and it’s hard to see Walsh winning.

FL-13: (OPEN) - Poll Average: 49% Jennings (D) - 42% Buchanan (R)
Info: Open seat in a Democratic year, plus poll numbers, Buchanan has spent over five million and is still down in the polls, this is a generally Republican district but the polling numbers lack of movement and the national mood seem to doom Buchanan

IN-08: Poll Average: 45% Sodrel (R-Inc) - 47% Hill (D)
Info: This is a re-match of 2004 where again the Republican won by 0.5, turn the clocks to 2006, you know the drill, this would normally be “certain” but Sodrel has been campaigning hard and keeping it a close race

NH-02: Poll Average: Bass 43% (R-Inc) – Hodes 47% (D)
Info: Hodes has been surging against Bass, and with the lead, momentum and the only big race being a plus to the Democrats, it looks like a pickup unless the Democrats faulter.


(Democrats +5-8)
Democrats +11...Democrats +16 to +19

Seats Democrats might win with a medium wave: (Tier 2 races)
(Slightly Dem)


FL-22: Poll Average (Tie) Latest Miami-Herald Poll: 39% Shaw (R) - 49% Klein (D)
Info: Klein is surging but this is a Republican district with a pretty powerful and popular Republican, things are leaning Democrat, and this should be the sign to see if a decently-sized wave is coming

With the numbers on the generic, local and state level so volatile, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy any further races, nor is there is a need to take them into detail, thus I will just post them in list form and say they are "tossups"
(The R or D means how partisan they are...in relation to how much that district voted for Kerry and Gore or Bush in 2000 and 2004) (Example, CT-02 D+8 means that in his district, they voted 58% for Gore and 56% for Kerry)

AZ-05 J.D. Hayworth R+4
CT-02 Rob Simmons D+8
CT-04 Chris Shays D+5
CT-05 Nancy Johnson D+4
MN-01 Gil Gutknecht R+1
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick D+3
OH-15 Deborah Pryce R+1
NY-20 John Sweeney R+3
KY-04 Geoff Davis R+12

Democrats should win at least 4 of those races

Seats Democrats might win with a large wave: (Tier 3 races)
(Lean GOP)

CA-11 Richard Pombo R+3
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave R+9
IL-06 OPEN (Hyde) R+3
KS-02 Jim Ryun R+7
MN-06 OPEN (Kennedy) R+5
NV-03 Jon Porter D+1
NY-26 Tom Reynolds R+3
OH-01 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-02 Jean Schmidt R+13
PA-04 Melissa Hart R+3
VA-02 Thelma Drake R+6
WI-08 OPEN (Green) R+4
WY-AL Barbara Cubin R+19

Democrats should win at least two of those

Seats Democrats might win with a huge wave: (Tier 4 races)
(Likely GOP)

AZ-01 Rick Renzi R+2
CA-04 John Doolittle R+11
CA-50 Brian Bilbray R+5
CO-05 OPEN (Hefley) R+16
ID-01 OPEN (Otter) R+19
KY-02 Ron Lewis R+13
KY-03 Anne Northup D+2
NE-03 OPEN (Osborne) R+24
NV-02 OPEN (Gibbons) R+8
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson R+1
NY-19 Sue Kelly R+1
NY-25 James Walsh D+3
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5
TX-23 Henry Bonilla R+4
WA-08 Dave Reichert D+2

Democrats should pickup one in an upset

FINAL DEMOCRATIC GAIN: 23-26 Likely
(Taking into account a bad night and possible Dem loses, 20+ seats seems to be the final outcome if a small wave hits, like many are predicting)
If there is a wave, 35-40 is there easily

Seats Democrats might LOSE:
GA-08 Jim Marshall R+8
GA-12 John Barrow D+2
IL-08 Melissa Bean R+5
LA-03 Charlie Melancon R+5

Senate:

See Senate post for details, this is rough summary here
Pollster has all the numbers and a beautiful map, is way more articulate on these races then I could be

Rick Santorum (R) Incumbent - Pennsylvania
Is going to lose to Casey

Mike DeWine (R) Incumbent - Ohio
Is going to lose to Brown

Lincoln Chafee (R) Incumbent - Rhode Island
Closed the gap to a statistical heat in one or two polls, others show him down to Whitehouse (D) by double digits...in the end it looks like a Democrat Pickup

Conrad Burns (R) Incumbent - Montana
Has tightened things with Jon Tester (D), however an incumbent who even in the final stretch, can not take the lead in one poll, shows where he is most likely headed

Jim Talent (R) Incumbent - Missouri
Same deal as above, same basic analysis, except Talent did lead once or twice about a month ago, why can't Talent hit 50%?

George Allen (R) - Virginia
George has actually taken a lead in a poll, but the majority show Webb ahead or exactly tied, bad news for Allen

[Open] - Tennessee
Ford had the lead, but then "Republicans came home" and Corker opened up a nice double digit lead, however, Ford has rebounded and is now close in several polls to be released Monday

Kyl (R) Incumbent - Arizona
If a major wave hits, he's gone, if it doesn't he's safe...currently has a 5 point lead in the latest ASU poll

Lieberman - Connecticut
Lieberman has a poll lead of about 12 points, but Connecticut is in an awfully weird situation, one that is never happened before in the history of our nation...losing the Senate primary and then having a 12pt lead in the last week?

Menendez (D) New Jersey
Corrupt he may be, but New Jersey has rebounded solidly for him, polls show him with the lead and the facts on the ground show him with the machine

Candin (D) - Maryland
Candin is a horrible campaigner, but Maryland is deep blue and to win Steele would have to defy all the national polls and have a third or some other ridiculously high number of blacks vote for a Republican after Katrina...unlikely

FINAL SENATE PREDICTION: If the polls are right, and there is a medium wave, should be 6 seats, Dems losing in CT, TN and AZ
If there is a big wave, look for 8 seats, adding TN and AZ

Governor:

Pollster has all the numbers and a beautiful map, is way more articulate on these races then I could be

It seems written in stone that the Democrats will win the majority of governorships, if they hit 30 out of 50 will be the question, and thats far too fluid in tight races for me to answer.


Frequently Asked Questions:

Threee of the top races for the Democrats to pick up...are Republican seats in GOP districts in INDIANA? What's with that?
Indiana has only one big race this year, Lugar's re-election...but the DNC wisely decided not to field an opponent against him, so the only reason the voters have to go to the polls in this non-southern red state is to re-elect their Congressmen...several are facing tough challenges from pro-life pro-gun "Blue Dog" Democrats...many voters are simply fed up with the Republican party in those districts and if a Democrat comes along and has the same social values, they figure they might as well "throw out the bums" as the phrase goes

Why is Connecticut the only New England state involved in this...if there is to be a "northeast-reallignment" shouldn't others be involved?
Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont already have entirely Democratic delegations they send, the only outlier is New Hampshire, and remember that went for Bush in 2000, it has two powerful incumbents and both may be off this election

Can the Democrats maintain a majority on these seats in 2008?
Depends on how large the wave is, and where it hits, seats like TX-22, OH-18, OH-02, PA-10, and several others are almost certain to revert back if their is a medium GOP wave in 2008 (Think 2002)

All of these races...their seems to be a lot of conservative district, even if the Democrats win big, what does that mean for the party?
Regardless of the results, the House Democrats will be pulled to the right, which is a good thing for the party right now in most eyes, Democrats picked too many fights in 1993 and got punished severely in 1994, they won't make the same mistake twice, and Democrats hope this could lead to a New New Coalition

Wait, this is supposedly a wave year for Democrats, and yet the biggest State in the country, which is also Blue, California, has lots of Republican seats, and they can only challenge a few, how does that work?
In early 2001 the GOP, losing seats and fearing more, and the Democrats, comfortable with their high ground but worried about a turnaround, made a compromise based on fear, they both agreed to ridiculously gerrymander California, with a solid majority of seats going to Democrats, but strong GOP districts. This worked out great for the Democrats in 2002 when that barrier stood up great, but in 2006 that same barrier is now protecting Republicans, and those who do are vulnerable are the ones who got the lowest gerrymandering possible (Pombo) or face massive scandals (Duke's old district, and Doolittle)

Why is New York have a lot of seats in play, but in the second tier?
New York Democrats are stupid, and minority Democrats in New York are extremely selfish, rather than Gerrymander the state like the GOP did in Texas, they let New York City districts get 80%-90% Democratic votes, and leave the upstate seats with a paltry amount of Democrats. Simply because they want a "Black district" and a "real city district" etc, in 2011 if Democrats wisely gerrymander New York, you could easily see the entire delegation go Democrat, a 9 seat pickup...right now they would pickup 7 in a big wave, but the Dems wouldn't be able to hold all of them until they redistrict...districts like NY-29 are simply too republican

Every big sweep, another party always loses seats, but this year its different, it looks like Democrats might not lose any, but now suddenly I am hearing they might lose some, whats the story?
Luck of the draw, all the weak Democrats are in safe districts, and the ones facing challenges are almost all of them capable, and in a Democratic year, the GOP itself admits it can't find any real targets, and has pulled out of basically every race, save a handful...here they are briefly discussed:
Two Georgia seats- Georgia redistricted and is trying to shove out two Democrats, one looks like he dodged the bullet, the other one (GA-12) is up in the air, in LA-03 Katrina's effects may have crippled the Democrat who has lost black voters to other states, in IL-08, Bean has simply run a bad campaign, and should lose except this is a Democratic year.

Let me get this straight, you, big liberal, look at Rothenberg's and Cook's Predictions of around 35+ seat gains, and you sit here talking about 20-25? Sounds like you are being cowardly or are admitting the American people aren't about to trust the Democrats?
I don't belong to an organized political party, I'm a Democrat. While individual Democrats have done outstanding jobs, we simply do not have the organization or the money the GOP has, and the GENERAL political climate enormously favors Republicans, we simply didn't expect to win back in January, infact we thought had no chance, no one could have predicted how inept the GOP would be at governing.

That being said, they have not shown to be bad at winning elections since 1998, and that was many years ago. To see why one should take this into account, see how almost the entire media has concluded that a narrow house win and senate loss would not be a mandate by the people. Despite the fact that it was considered IMPOSSIBLE that we would win the house, and would be a HUGE VICTORY if we did about a year ago, the GOP has spinned it that the Democrats must pick up 7 senate seats and 40 house seats for their to be any sort of mandate...winning back the House for the first time in 12 years would mean little to nothing to the Mainstream Media. Nothing has changed, winning the house by just 15 seats and winning only 2-3 senate seats is still a big victory, and that is what I expect.

What seats do Democrats REALLY want to win?
In the gubernatorial races, Iowa off the top of my head, to hopefully have this formerly blue state (in 2000) state come back to its populist roots.

In the Senate, Rick Santorum is out, I can not express in words how much liberals despise that man, if we lose every other race, we will still be smiling on Wednesday over that. Sherrod Brown is also in the bag and that is a huge win, not because we hated DeWine, but because Brown is a solid liberal (except for a vote here and there) and a tough campaigner

Next in line, we really want Democrats like Jim Webb and Jon Tester, Jim Webb represents the New Southern Democrat, Jon Tester the New Western Democrat, they would be key assets to elect others like them in their region and have the "big tent" party back again in reality not just theory

Lastly, if Cardin loses, there will be an unspoken disdain for blacks by non-blacks in the Democratic party, everyone knows the Democrats lost their super-majority and then majority because they lost the south over pro-black issues, and to this day Democrats face sting from white males over those same programs, yet this would be seen as a betrayal by a voting bloc the Democrats have sacrificed so much for...if Michael Steele is elected, it won't be publicized, but it would cause big internal problems...luckily though, many Democrats already despise each other enough that it couldn't hurt an already broken party (organizationally, not ideologically)

In the House, this is easy, look at the partisan voting index, there's no endangered seat Democrats have that they would be really remorseful of losing, but Dems would love to sweep the Philly suburbs, Middle New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire...those alone are 11-13 seats that would be solid Democrat for many many years, possibly decades, add in other democratic districts that are tossups, make that 21 seats that would be solidly democratic and could withstand a Reagan-like GOP victory with ease

If Dems won those 21 democratic seats (Dems would have to be extremely lucky and there'd have to be a huge wave) they'd effectively have a lock in the majority for the next decade in the House

[motivez]

Looking forward to seeing your predictions

Good info so far.

[Thorgrim]

Post completed, if you find it useful and informative, tips are apprecieted in the form of reputation

Any suggestions I'd be happy to try and implement them Monday

Tuesday I will be with my SO and watch the results, I'll be trying to do (real) work as I watch the results all night, so don't expect any updates until Wednesday, but there maybe some Tuesday Night

This thread is meant to inform you, if you want a scorecard, go to:
The Cook Political Report's House Competitive Race Chart
and print out the latest chart for the House (The Senate you should be able to count to 2-8 in your head without the need of pen and paper) to have with you as you watch the results and highlight Democratic gains or lost chances

I personally plan to have several lists with me (from different forecasters, some liberal ones you guys wouldn't find interesting) and will highlight in blue when a Democrat wins that seat, and Orange when they miss the chance (theres no red highlighters i could find)

Enjoy the elections everyone, and remember, in 6 years all of this will be re-decided, so whoever you're rooting for, remember the elections don't matter THAT much, just vote and enjoy the cable news coverage, until you feel like turning it off

(Dem-GOP-Tossup)
--------------------------Senate | House
Congressional Quarterly 48-48-4 | 212-199-24
Charlie Cook 49-49-2 | 223-197-15
Stu Rothenberg 51-49 | 237-192-6
Larry Sabato 51-49 | 230-205
Electoral-vote.com 50-49-1 | 241-193-1
Votemaster 49-49-2 | 235-200

[six6ftr]

Good info!!

[hsmith]

Steele will win MD
Webb will win VA

[Scrum]

Nice thread.

[motivez]

Awesome thread man. Good info and predictions.

It's going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out tommorow.

[Thorgrim]

"Maybe he ought to run for manager of the Cubs. They're a bunch of losers, too, and need some help."

-- Illinois gubernatorial candidate Judy Baar Topinka (R), quoted by the AP, in reference to Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) who responded, "If she wants to say I'm a loser and call me names ... God bless her, but leave the Cubs alone."

Political Wire: Bonus Quote of the Day

ouch...dumb thing to say

[Thorgrim]

According to the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, Dems should take the Senate...if they don't...the poll averages were wrong on a pretty big scale, that didn't happen in 2002, 2004, etc

RealClearPolitics - Elections 2006 - Battle for the Senate

Cardin is up, final average: 3.7%, and he's not an incumbent, and he's never been behind

Tester is up, final average: 3.0% and he's a challenger, and he's never been behind

McCaskill is up, final average: 3.2% and she's a challenger, and they've been going tied the whole way

Webb is up, final average: 1.5% and of the latest polls only gallup has him behind, and Allen still below 50 at 49% even in that poll

Basically, this is opinion, but Tester has this locked along with Casey/Brown...Whitehouse is questionable but who cares LC is so liberal anyway

If Cardin loses, I will seriously think it has to do with voter fraud, I don't recall an election where an Open seat had one person in the lead the entire race and then he lost, especially when the latest polls show momentum stopped for Steele 2 weeks ago

With Webb, same deal, he is broke, low on volunteers from what CNN is reporting, and he has momentum, and the incumbent rule, I don't see how he could lose unless something horrible happens

McCaskill is the only doubter because she's been stuck in the MoE the entire race with no momentum and people think both candidates are zombie-boring, so she might lose just because of missouri apathy, however if the stem cell amendment passes and gets big numbers, Claire should win by a nice margin

Basically I think 5-6, and anything below that I really question what dirty tricks have been going on in these last 72 hours

[Thorgrim]

VIRGINIA

D: 52
R: 47

RHODE ISLAND

D: 53
R: 46

PENNSYLVANIA

D: 57
R: 42

OHIO

D: 57
R: 43

NEW JERSEY

D: 52
R: 45

MONTANA

D: 53
R: 46

MISSOURI

D: 50
R: 48

MARYLAND

D: 53
R: 46

TENNESSEE

D: 48
R: 51

ARIZONA

D: 46
R: 50

Think Progress » Early CNN Senate Exit Polls

I actually think those results aren't good because:
Exit polls tilt democratic usually, and there wasn't a blowout across the board (although they have been working on refining the methods to make them more accurate this year)

I think they're good because:
The numbers for Ohio look solid, I fully expect that to be the result, so if thats the result there, the others have a chance panning out there, and that's 6 seats as long as the non-reported MD doesn't swing

[Scrum]

I'm not going to put much into exit polls. I'll just run the risk of being disappointed later.

looks good if they are correct though.

[motivez]

[motivez]

What's kind of scary considering the Diebold / electronic voting machine problems is how the GOP establishment has been so vocal about not trusting the exit polls, as well as so confident about retaining both houses.

[6SpeedTA95]

First polls close in 22 minutes. We'll start getting results and perhaps have some winner predictions based on actual votes within the next 2 hours or so

Things could get quite interesting...

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

John Titor

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

First polls close in 22 minutes. We'll start getting results and perhaps have some winner predictions based on actual votes within the next 2 hours or so

Things could get quite interesting...

actually polls already closed in kentucky and indiana...just no updates