Brief Wrap up of Election 2006 as of July 19th

[Thorgrim]

I'll get my big post over later if the admins want it, but here's the jist:

The House

Dems need 15 seats to retake

There are 10 Democratic seats that are leaning democratic, 10 more are likely
There are 35 GOP seats that are slightly leaning or tossup, 18 more are likely

http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/r...comp_jul12.pdf

What does that mean? Well, the Democrats have NO TOSSUPS, thats always a nice advantage, to be honest, among the "lean" ones, the most vunerable seat is Chet Edwards Texas-17th, the rest...I just don't see them going red in this environment

The GOP has 53 seats that are not safe, compared with 20 for Dems.

If you follow the 35 GOP seats fundraising, the Dems are keeping right up, and internal polls here and there show Dems leading in a lot of those races before big ad buys have even started. If the GOP wins all of the Dem Tossups (0, heh) and the Dems win lets say 11 out of 14 tossups, that means they are only 4 seats away...and compare 21 leans with 10 leans...thats just bad numbers

Despite what people say about the Bush Bounce, things are looking pretty bad for the GOP holding the House

Senate:

I'll make this brief...vunerable Republicans:
Santorum-PA is down by 10-20 in most polls
Burns-MT is down 5 points and growing
Chaffee-RI is down 5 points and growing, and has a primary challenge
Dewine-OH has some screwy poll numbers, but in several respectable ones he is down 10-15 points

I'd call those races pretty much Dem pickups unless they shoot themselves in the foot, thats only 4 though and you need 6 for a Dem takeover

Talent-MO has been in a statistical tie in over a dozen polls over the past year straight...Stem Cell proposition is going to hurt him...complete tossup though
OPEN-TN Ford(D) sure is a sharp candidate, however he's black and a democrat (moderate) in Tennesse...not a good combo, down within the MoE in the most recent polls

Thats 6 if Dems have a good night, but a great night would be:
Allen-VA up as little as 6 points against Webb
Kyl-AZ back and forth in the polls between a laughable 20pt lead and a single digit lead, Penderson is sharp but immigration is a big issue and Kyl is to the right of him
Ensign-NV looks hopeless for Carter(D) but he could get traction if the winds blow right

vunerable Dems?
MN polls have the Dem up by over 10pts, WA polls have Cantwell up over 5 and its a pretty blue state, Maryland has the Dem crushing Steele(R), NJ keeps acting like its up in the air but Menendez has a huge cash advantage and he's taking the lead in polls

If I had to guess, I'd say 5 seat pickup for Dems...1 short

Governors: Dems have a shot at going from 22 to 30, a huge upshot that would help redistricting that could ensure a Dem majority for the next decade in Congress

Pretty simple, blue drifting in the Northeast, and solid candidates in the southwest, plus Huckabee left AK and the Dem running for his spot is a great candidate

Rights now the Dems are leading in enough states to get them 27 of 50, throw in Cali where Phil is gaining ground, Iowa which is only 1 point GOP lead, and blue MN with a 5pt GOP lead, and there is your 30 Doesn't mean anything except nice symbolism

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...&w=778&hasAd=1

So there is your outlook, ofcourse I am hoping for a Dem takeover of Congress, and 30 gubernatorial seats, but I'll take just the House which is looking like a good bet now

[6SpeedTA95]

I agree the house looks like a good bet for democrats right now. I wonder how many gubernatorial seats they'll get though...henry on the way out?

[DosEquis]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

I agree the house looks like a good bet for democrats right now. I wonder how many gubernatorial seats they'll get though...henry on the way out?

The race in nebraska for that should be VERY interesting. Democrat candidate Dave Hahn is no punk. A lot of people haven't heard of him but he has great ideas for reducing our budget (gasp a democrat cuts spending) and a variety of other things that can improve our state.

[motivez]

I am still hoping that the dem's manage to takeover so we can finally get some real oversight on the Administration. I just hope if they manage to win enough seats to obtain a majority they don't shirk the responsibility of dealing with what needs to be dealt with.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

I am still hoping that the dem's manage to takeover so we can finally get some real oversight on the Administration. I just hope if they manage to win enough seats to obtain a majority they don't shirk the responsibility of dealing with what needs to be dealt with.

what do you think they would ignore?

[SoFlaJDM]

thinking about the 2008 senate elections makes me happy

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

thinking about the 2008 senate elections makes me happy

We are going to get fucked in Arkansas if some fucking hack runs against McCain...

However, if its like even a 45-55 loss, we are in such a sweet position

right now it looks like 3 GOPers in blue states are retiring (Maine, New Mexico are going to be easy fucking pickups, Colorado should go blue too)
3 GOPers in red states retiring, but Nebraska has a Dem, NC is getting more blue, and Alaska almost elected a Dem in 2004

Sununu in caught up in phone jamming scandal, MN had that mess where a GOper won at the last second due to Wellstone dying, Chamblis isn't too popular for going after Cleland like he did, even in Texas Cornyn is unpopular

all democratic incumbents are popular and anyone considering retirement is in a deep blue state

That's atleast 2 pickups, if I had to bet I'd say we pickup:
Maine
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire
Minnesota
and maybe Nebraska
and maybe Mississippi might have the GOPer retiring and there is a popular Dem that everyone thinks is unbeatable as like State Attorney General or something

That's 5-7 seats+!

now the only thing that could fuck us is some huge electoral landslide by McCain against some asshat like Hillary

After this cycle and next cycle, Dems are like a sure thing for controlling the Senate, i think even in a McCain landslide we'll still have 50 Dems plus Ind-Socialist Sanders to break the tie for us

[Scrum]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

what do you think they would ignore?

I think many that are in office now are afraid to rock the boat.

Maybe if they get a majority, more of them will grow a backbone.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Scrumtralecent

I think many that are in office now are afraid to rock the boat.

Maybe if they get a majority, more of them will grow a backbone.

The thing is, we need to give guys from like the Midwest a break so they can win by saying 'i vote as a conservative democrat'

That's Nelson, Landrieu, Salazar, Pryor, Conrad, Johnson, Dorgan and Rockefeller

So we need about a 5 seat majority so four of those guys on any issue can side with republicans or all 8 can and we can pickup 4 GOPers

Thank God Lieberman might be gone, and we won't have to worry about him

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

That's 5-7 seats+!

[Thorgrim]

News from Cook Political Report (google it)

Our Take from the Trenches: Senior Editor Amy Walter makes ratings changes, moving Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA-02) to Toss Up and TX-22 (DeLay) to Lean Republican

What does that mean?

Despite the fact that Republicans have significantly more unsafe seats that lean or are likely to go their way, the Democrats have zero seats that are unsafe enough to be a tossup

With the recent change, there are now 15 tossups, all of them Republican

If the Dems simply win all the tossup races, they win

As for the argument "well the dems will lose seats" I bet they will, but they will be likely Dem seats, meaning the GOP will also lose likely GOP seats, probably more considering the climate

It's just a nice thing to say, "all we have to do is win the complete tossups" one nice wind on november 7th and the house is ours

[motivez]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

what do you think they would ignore?

I'm just worried they're going to be more worried about who is elected in '08 than holding the Bush administration responsible for the various things that need investigation from Congress

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

I'm just worried they're going to be more worried about who is elected in '08 than holding the Bush administration responsible for the various things that need investigation from Congress

Senate yes

Congress no

Conyers won't listen to anyone he's so fucking liberal he's like kryptonite to conservatives

That fine gentleman will be chairman of the judiciary committee

They had a mock session that made the papers where he and others had mock proceedings to bring up impeachment articles Bush

[ballz2wallz]

GOP Fundraising Outpaces Democrats

Republicans trying to hold onto the House raised $12.5 million in July, outpacing Democrats by a 3-to-1 margin but leaving the GOP just $1 million ahead in cash on hand.
The influx of money _ largely from political action committees _ gives Republicans a slight advantage more than two months before the November elections. Democrats hope to gain 15 seats to seize control of the House.

[Thorgrim]

The NRCC has raised $70 million so far and has $34.1 million in the bank. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $4.2 million in July, taking the group's total to $81 million this cycle and $33 million cash on hand.

The DSCC raised $4.2 million during July, outpacing its GOP counterpart's $3.3 million. It also raised $77.2 million so far this cycle and has $35.1 million in the bank.

Democrats lagged behind Republicans by $6.4 million in July 2004, a gap it has narrowed to about $1 million this cycle. Most of the GOP's income _ $9 million of the $12.5 million _ came from political action committees.

I guess you missed that part

[ballz2wallz]

no no, i didn't miss that part. none of that changes the fact they are outpacing the democrats.

[motivez]

That's nothing new though. The news is that the gap has decreased significantly.. saying a lot about confidence in the GOP.

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

GOP Fundraising Outpaces Democrats

Republicans trying to hold onto the House raised $12.5 million in July, outpacing Democrats by a 3-to-1 margin but leaving the GOP just $1 million ahead in cash on hand.
The influx of money _ largely from political action committees _ gives Republicans a slight advantage more than two months before the November elections. Democrats hope to gain 15 seats to seize control of the House.

so money=votes? the polls don't seem to agree

[motivez]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

so money=votes? the polls don't seem to agree

Well, generally, yes. The candidate who spends the most money generally wins I believe is the rule.

However, the interesting note is that the GOP does not outpace Democrats by nearly as much as they have in previous years, saying a lot about donor confidence in their ability to govern and win re-election.

Another interesting thing is that Dean has made every effort to challenge Republicans in every district. Obviously he wasn't 100% successful, there's still some unchallenged districts, but there was a sharp increase in challenges even in relatively safe Republican districts.

This has made them spend what money they are raising in areas they normally dont have to, leaving less money for the most contested races.

[Thorgrim]

98 GOP gets a lot more money, they lose seats

money, thankfully, does not mean as much as some would like