For A Different Topic: When Oil Runs Out

[mididoctors]

its as thou people just look around for any old shit to burn in desperation

"look we have 100 gizillions tons of this shite"

"does it burn?"

"yeah..just"

"well stick it on the fire then"

"hey we sure are burning through this stuff quick i am getting knacked stocking the fire"

"get some guys to help then"

"I have already got everyone on it"

pretty soon everyone is running back and forwards just trying to keep the fire alight

its just nonsense

I say we use human FAT better than baked potatoes and the world is over populated anyway.. might as well burn them

BZZZZZZZZZTTTTTTT

and our survey said

YOU LOSE

How soon will we know whether Shell's technology is economic? The company plans to do more experiments, before making a final decision by 2010. If it pulls the trigger, it would be at least three or four years before the first oil would flow, perhaps at a rate of 10,000 barrels a day. That's less than one-tenth of 1 percent of current U.S. consumption. But if it turns out that Shell needs more energy to produce a barrel of oil than a barrel contains, bets are off. That's the equivalent of burning the furniture to keep the house warm. Energy is the original currency; electricity its most valuable form. Using coal-fired electricity to wring oil out of rocks is like feeding steak to the dog and eating his Alpo.

....

ok how about we drill to the center of the earth looking for the mythical lake of geologically formed oil..

well lets see we consume 30 billion barrels a year so if this oil forms at the rate we use it so we never run.....hang on..(counting on fingers) thats 30 billion times 4.5 billion years (age of earth)=135000000000000000000 barrels divide by 7(barrels per ton) to get that in metric tons =1900000000000000000 tons
or 19000000000000000000000kg only 10000 times the mass of all water on earth

oil is 10000 times more abundant than water?

BZZZZZZZT

our survey said BS

Boris
London

[mididoctors]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

You need to do more reading on oil shale, its proving to be a great source of oil

Links please?

Boris
London

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by mididoctors

Links please?

Boris
London

You'll have to google it...I work in the industry we are involved in numerous shale projects if prices stay high enough it will become a great source of oil.

[mididoctors]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

You'll have to google it...I work in the industry we are involved in numerous shale projects if prices stay high enough it will become a great source of oil.

the price will NEVER make shale a GOOD source of oil.. the fact the price needs to go up to make it viable at all MEANS its not as good as vertically drilled free flowing crude blah de blah..

but then again since that stuff is not around in quantities we demand etc....

your argument is self defeating.. its its own counter

Boris
London

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by mididoctors

the price will NEVER make shale a GOOD source of oil.. the fact the price needs to go up to make it viable at all MEANS its not as good as vertically drilled free flowing crude blah de blah..

but then again since that stuff is not around in quantities we demand etc....

your argument is self defeating.. its its own counter

Boris
London

It doesn't need to go up, did you read my posts? Its' profitable now

[Diesel66]

Originally Posted by mididoctors

the price will NEVER make shale a GOOD source of oil.. the fact the price needs to go up to make it viable at all MEANS its not as good as vertically drilled free flowing crude blah de blah..

They are already doing the oil sands in Canada for profit, shale oil is just as easy

[mididoctors]

Originally Posted by Diesel66

They are already doing the oil sands in Canada for profit, shale oil is just as easy

that is just plain wrong.. retorting from tar sands is way easier than shale

oil shale is more rubbish than rubbish

shell claim a EROEI of 3.5:1 for oil shale only marginally worse than US crude at 4:1!

believe that and you can believe anything...

you have to heat the oil-shale to 700 degrees to get the organic "kerogen" out, which isn't oil btw you have to heavy refine to get it to crude standards

can anyone explain to me how heating a ton of rock to 700 degrees so you can liberate the energy equivalent of a ton of potatoes is in anyway a substitute for a free flowing liquid with 8 times the energy density

people who think that "being in profit" means this makes shale a good source of oil simply are not addressing the problem

the problem is the comparisons of RATES of return..

the problem is how to address a systematic drop in efficiency.. which oil to oil shale represents

if you think you become MORE efficient or AS efficient with oil shale you are mistaken..

if you think efficiency is unimportant then you need to explain why maoist china couldn't industrialize with people power during the cultural revolution?

thats the shift in magnitudes of inefficiency we are talking about here..

to replace oil with oil shale you gross energy inputs need to be scaled up by a order of magnitude (ten times at least) for the same end use utility (same number of gallons available at the forecourt)

the entire sector/proportion of oil supply substituted by oil shale is going to become 10 times (at least!) more inefficient than before

Boris
London

[Diesel66]

United Press International - Energy - Analysis: Israel sees shale replacing oil

Hom Tov isn't worried, however. "This is a much lighter (substance) than what gradually comes out of an oil field," Aizenshtat told UPI, as Hom Tov company owners Israel Feldman and Shimon Kazansky posed for photographs with their fingers dipped in a plastic pitcher of the stuff.

Because fewer refining processes are necessary with oil shale than with crude oil, the final product is a higher quality fuel at a lower price, Aizenshtat said.

The company estimates it will consume 6 million tons of oil shale and 2 million tons of refinery waste each year, for an annual production of 3 million tons of product.

It would cost about $17 to produce a barrel of synthetic oil at the Hom Tov facility, meaning giant profit margins in a world of $45 to $60 per barrel crude. Yearly earnings are forecasted to be between $159 million and $350 million, Shahal said.

Israel has 15 billion tons of oil shale reserves. Jordan, on the other hand, has about 25 billion tons, and the oil shale in Jordan is of higher quality. Shahal met with Jordanian Energy Minister Azmi Khreisat earlier this year, to discuss setting up a plant there.

If this works, the colorado basin just got more attractive.

[mididoctors]

The company estimates it will consume 6 million tons of oil shale and 2 million tons of refinery waste each year, for an annual production of 3 million tons of product.

bitumen is not "refinery waste" per sae..

this "process" is converting 2 parts bitumen to 3 parts syn-crude by adding 6 parts shale.

no wonder he doesn't want to get into the numbers

Boris
London

[6SpeedTA95]

I boggles my mind that people who are working with shale producers on a regular basis can be disgarded for one or two articles that may or may not be properly informed. The shale in FT worth, Arkansas and the rockies has proven to produce more gas and oil than anyone previously thought.

[mididoctors]

Originally Posted by Diesel66

United Press International - Energy - Analysis: Israel sees shale replacing oil

If this works, the colorado basin just got more attractive.

if this works your still tied to conventional oil production constraints as your overall production is dependent on the production of bitumen from crude.

bitumen and other heavy residual comprise about 7% of each barrel so adding shale to residuals could increase this to 10% or so refinery gain..

so the net effect would be to expand oil products by 3-4% max which still depreciates with depletion IE your year on year 3% gain shrinks.



Boris
London

[mididoctors]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

I boggles my mind that people who are working with shale producers on a regular basis can be disgarded for one or two articles that may or may not be properly informed. The shale in FT worth, Arkansas and the rockies has proven to produce more gas and oil than anyone previously thought.

what did they think and how much is?

The amount of oil produced is almost irrelevant if the energy inputs are from depletion-able sources. moreover the very thing you claim is the precursor for shale oil (high prices) means that energy inputs for shale production also rise in price forming a catch 22 scenario.. shale oil prices will mirror other energy markets to a greater or lesser degree

to escape this there are 2 options

1. energy inputs from renewable or otherwise unusable sources (clarification needed here)

2. "self ignition" where the energy inputs come from the shale itself, perhaps burnt like coal

problems

1) renewables are unlikely to exist in large enough scales in the near to mid term and residual energy sources such as the jordanian bitumen process are critically path constrained

2) for shells in situ method; how many tons of oil shale can be heated to 700 degrees c for 2-3 years by burning 1 ton of baked potatoes? a lot less than 1 is my guess

oil from shale is more a energy carrier than a source. especially with geometric scaling of production RATES required to feed US consumption habits in a "business as usual" model.

Boris
London

[AVengeance]

As the price of oil slowly climbs, items that were cheap because they were in plastic bottles get more expensive. As a result (to keep costs down) manufacturers start using glass containers again. This is just one of many scenarios. Oil is more than gasoline in the car. It's plastics, it's lubricant, it's EVERYWHERE. As oil becomes harder to find, the price goes up. When the price goes up, economical alternatives come in to fill the gap. We can already make cars get 100mpg, but do you want to buy one? You can already remove a huge load from the power grid, but are YOU going to replace all your light bulbs with LEDs and fluorescents? You will, when the time comes. No one's going to wake up one day, and gas be $25/gal. By the time gas is that much, the only people buying it will be buying it because they want to. Everyone else will already be using an alternative, because it was more economically sound before it got that far.