McCain defiant as Iraq fires early 2008 US vote talk

[Ron Burgundy]

AFP - As Americans wonder when the troops will come home from Iraq, Republican White House hopeful John McCain is laying his first big bet of the 2008 campaign: demanding more soldiers for the war.

The US entanglement in Iraq is already driving the run-up to the next presidential polls, and barring a miracle peace, or abrupt US retreat, looks certain to become an even more potent issue.

Potential candidates are putting up trial balloons, as a committee of veteran Washington policymakers and a White House panel probe possible changes in US strategy as violence rages in the occupied country.

At first sight, McCain's position appears to jar with political logic, after the rout of his Republican Party in congressional elections two weeks ago, which exit polls showed were heavily influenced by dismay over Iraq.

It also contrasts sharply with the call of victorious Democrats for a phased withdrawal from Iraq.

"He doesn't necessarily believe that the signal that was sent in the mid-term elections was an endorsement of withdrawal, per se, as much as it was an endorsement of doing something differently," said Jamie McKown, professor of government at Maine's College of the Atlantic.

"That is a fine line to walk."

McCain, 70, set Washington abuzz with a speech to a Republican political action committee Thursday, just over a week after the elections and on the day he took the first formal steps toward launching a campaign.

"Without additional forces, we cannot win this war," the former Vietnam War prisoner said.

A day earlier, McCain used a congressional hearing to dress down General John Abizaid, the top US commander in the Middle East.

"I regret deeply that you seem to think the status quo and the rate of progress we're making is acceptable. I think most Americans do not," McCain said.

Abizaid said a 20,000-troop increase in the 144,000-member US force would have a temporary effect on violence, but warned the pool of available combat troops was not large enough to sustain such an increase.

On Sunday, McCain was asked on ABC if it was "immoral" to ask US troops to stay in Iraq, when in his view, they were undermanned.

"Yes, it is," McCain answered. "We've got to ask ... some questions. One, are we winning? And I think the answer is no ... Can we still win? Yes, I believe we can."

As Democrats demand a phased withdrawal of US troops, McCain says more men must be poured in to flush out insurgent strongholds, crush militias and sectarian violence and to train Iraqi forces.

He has already differentiated himself from fellow 2008 hopefuls.

Former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican candidate, said he was waiting for the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group to report on possible options, though was quoted last week as saying the United States needed to be "steadfast in Iraq."

Democrat front-runner Senator Hillary Clinton last week warned "hope" was not a strategy in Iraq. Senator Barack Obama, a rising Democratic star also considering a run, Monday called for a phased withdrawal of US troops.

McCain may be tailoring his message to hawkish, pro-military conservative voters who will decide the Republican nominee in primary elections.

"I don't think it dooms him in his primary process. He has a hard right primary he has to go through. My guess is that's part of the calculation," Democrat Senator Joseph Biden, mulling his own White House run, told NBC Monday.

This is merely the latest in a string of maverick stands by McCain, which include challenges to his own party over corporate financing and to the White House over torture.

The downside to his bet appears to be that if he wins the nomination, he may have trouble selling his message to voters nationwide in the 2008 elections.

"If things are getting worse and there is more of a consensus to say bring the troops home, he has to find a way to do that," said McKown.
McCain appeared on NBC last week showing the first signs of a possible exit route.

"So we're at a decision point. We either set up a plan for withdrawal, or withdraw, or whatever it is that is going to prevail," McCain said.

Asked if he would advocate withdrawal without more troops, he replied: "I think that that's pretty much my position."