Senate Elections 2006

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Internal Poll shows him up by 7, 2nd to last rasmussen poll showed him up by about 7, latest rasmussen from 3 weeks ago showed a tie

[Thorgrim]

I meant that the other way around, im a little tired...Tester was up 7 in those two polls

If I had to bet on one candidate beating an incumbent, it'd be Tester over Burns

[Thorgrim]

Political Wire: In Tennessee, Ford's Poll Shows Tie

According to his own internal polling, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) "is virtually tied" with Bob Corker (R) in Tennessee's U.S. Senate race, according to the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

Ford leads 44% to 42%.

A Corker campaign spokeswoman "said the campaign’s polling shows Mr. Corker in the lead, but she declined to release poll numbers."

You know what that means, they were very simliar, maybe Corker had like a 1 point lead

[Thorgrim]

The next round of polling will be released August 28th, which will include the first round of polling in Connecticut.

-Zogby

WHY CAN'T YOU INCLUDE MONTANA AND RHODE ISLAND....ARGH

Anyway, looks like the 28-31 of august should see my 'august' rewrite/update, its not going to be big but it'll put everyone back on the cutting edges of all the numbers

[Thorgrim]

House Outlook For 2006

By Stuart Rothenberg

Our latest race-by-race review of Congressional districts around the country convinces us that a Democratic wave is building and that the party is poised to take control of the House of Representatives in the fall. The only question now is the size of the November wave.

The national mood remains bleak for Republicans. President George W. Bush’s job performance ratings are terrible, and the public still gives Congress low marks. A majority of Americans continue to tell pollsters that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

That’s a recipe for a GOP disaster, and there is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and Election Day to improve Republican prospects.

At the district level, voters are more critical of Republican incumbents – and supportive of even unknown Democratic candidates – than they usually are at this point in the election cycle. GOP candidates are running behind where they would be in anything approaching a “neutral” year. While some firming of the Republican base is likely over the next ten weeks, that alone may not be enough for the party to retain the House.

Strong fund raising by the DCCC should mean that some Democratic candidates won’t face the huge financial discrepancy that they have in the past, though RNC money should boost the Republican ground game nationally.

To hold the House, Republicans must retain at least a handful of districts that now appear likely to go Democratic, probably by discrediting Democratic challengers and open seat hopefuls. Unlike previous cycles, when the burden was on Democrats to create upsets, the onus is now on the GOP to save at least a handful of seats before Election Day.

Therefore, we are raising our estimate of likely Democratic gains from 8-12 seats to 15-20 seats, which would translate to between 218 and 223 seats – and a majority – in the next House.

[Thorgrim]

If you're not already home and want a little weekend boost, I can report Brookings' scholar Thomas Mann's predictions for the 2006 midterms, as shared with folks at an event sponsored by the Simon Rosenberg's New Democratic Network today. (Thanks for lunch, Simon).

Mann projects the Democrats to pickup 25-35 House seats, and four to five Senate seats with a chance to maybe hit six. Alternatively, Mann said the chance of Democrats capturing the House are two in three, and put the capture of the Senate at 50:50. One lunch attendee whose very close friend happens to be a Republican pollster told him that his internal GOP numbers point to 26 House pickups and six Senate gains for the Democrats.

gadflyer.com

[SoFlaJDM]

update

Arizona: Kyl's (R) lead cut in half to about 4%... still within the MoE though

Florida: thank you Katherine Harris (R) Bill Nelson's lead increased 3% to a healthy 20.6%

Maryland: Cardin's (D) lead now at 8.9%

Michigan: Stabenow (D) lead shrinking... still within the MoE

Virginia: Allen (R) lost an almost 11% lead and is now barely down in the MoE by less than 2%...

Wisconsin: Kohl (D) had his lead triple from 5% to almost 18%



OUCH

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

update

Arizona: Kyl's (R) lead cut in half to about 4%... still within the MoE though

Florida: thank you Katherine Harris (R) Bill Nelson's lead increased 3% to a healthy 20.6%

Maryland: Cardin's (D) lead now at 8.9%

Michigan: Stabenow (D) lead shrinking... still within the MoE

Virginia: Allen (R) lost an almost 11% lead and is now barely down in the MoE by less than 2%...

Wisconsin: Kohl (D) had his lead triple from 5% to almost 18%



OUCH

It's an interactive poll, I didn't know it but they may be using the same system that was so screwed up in 2004 by predicting a Kerry win in OH, FL, IA, NV, NM...however in 2005 it was decently accurate...Kaine won by 6 and it had him winning by 2...Corzine won by 11 and it had him winning by exactly 11

[Thorgrim]

Zogby is not reliable enough for me to use...

Other polls are pretty much where I left them, except for this:

Webb (D-VA) and Ford (D-TN) have taken huge jumps to get within MoE

Santorum (R-PA) maybe be closing Casey's lead on him, however he used half of his campaign money (5 out of 10 million) in a huge campaign ad blitz, Casey is hitting back now and has 5 million to match him, plus he should get a donating edge

Lamont maybe closing Lieberman's lead if you follow rasmussen's first and latest poll

Everything else is static with...
Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island...all tossups
Ohio Brown keeps his lead

Pederson and Carter are not yet in campaign mode


I don't think that's enough for an update, I think I'll give it a few more weeks of political developments and polls (see how Bush's numbers go, how the Sept 12 primary goes, how Iraq goes, etc)

Right now things are either way too static or too confusing for me to offer an update that would change the picture

the Basic picture is still this:
Democrats are poised to hold all their senate seats
GOP are set to lose Ohio, Pennslyvania, Montana and Rhode Island
Tossup in Missouri
GOP are set to win VA and TN
NV and AZ are...by limited polls, third tier if not safe GOP seats
Lieberman is where he was 2 months ago...basically tied in Rasmussen with Lamont

Not worth an update, but if I get a batch of new numbers I'll make an update, I check EVERYWHERE

[Thorgrim]

In light of this:
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Electi...2004%20ohio%22

I am going to give my weight to SurveyUSA and Rasmussen, with the understanding that Rasmussen may be slightly (R) leaning

The rest of the polls don't have enough background to show trends...yet or have questionable methods (Zogby is interactive, SV is a republican outfit, etc) qpac only does 4 states so its hard to see their trends

[Thorgrim]

also, here is my current rankings for seats most likely to change hands:

Red means Republican pickup over a Dem seat, Blue means Democratic pickup over a GOP seat

PA
MT
RI
OH
MO
TN
WA
VA
NJ
MD
AZ
MN
MI
NV

New polls out by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show double digit leads in MN, MI, and WA...still George Allen has a lot of money to spend so I can't put him losing his seat above the most vunerable Dem, Cantwell

However, the most vunerable Dem has this poll: Showing a huge 17 point lead
PollReportPopup

Arizona is supposedly getting into the single digit again, and NV might follow suit in Sept/Oct

NJ and MD just have too many Blue State advantages, MI's blue state and incumbent status is too overwhelming

One should note though, there is a big drop in chances to switching between OH and MO, and between TN and WA

[motivez]

I can't believe how much of a hit Allen took

Now that more of his racist ties are coming out, I hope they can use that against him though..

Being affiliated with what's essentially the "new KKK" is pretty bad.

I think his chances of becoming President just went down to about nil though.. which is great news

[Thorgrim]

Rhode Island College. 8/28-30. Likely Republican primary voters. MoE 5.1% (7/12-15 results)

Chafee (R) 34 (39)
Laffey (R) 51 (38)

oh plz oh plz stay this way!

[Thorgrim]

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum trailed Democrat Bob Casey by 18 percentage points among likely voters, by 14 points among registered voters.


In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine was behind Democrat Sherrod Brown by 6 points among likely voters, by 2 points among registered voters.


In Montana, three-term Sen. Conrad Burns, who has faced questions in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, was in a close race with Democrat Jon Tester. Tester led by 3 points among likely voters; Burns led by 2 points among registered voters.


In Missouri, Sen. Jim Talent held a 6-point lead among likely voters over Democrat Claire McCaskill. The two were tied among registered voters.


In Minnesota, where Republicans hope to pick up an open seat, Democrat Amy Klobuchar led Republican Mark Kennedy by 10 points among likely voters, by 7 points among registered voters.

USATODAY.com - GOP lags in key races for Senate

look for an update on Sunday

[SoFlaJDM]

can't wait till november

[Thorgrim]

WHEW FINALLY AN UDPATE ON THE MAIN PAGE TO THE MAIN ARTICLE

I really like the pie-charts I am going to try and get a SurveyUSA one for every race, so people can simply glance at the names, view the chart, and not have to read a god damn thing!

Thoughts?

[KatKanPlay]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

WHEW FINALLY AN UDPATE ON THE MAIN PAGE TO THE MAIN ARTICLE

I really like the pie-charts I am going to try and get a SurveyUSA one for every race, so people can simply glance a the names, view the chart, and not have to read a god damn thing!

Thoughts?

I think you rock!!!

[Thorgrim]

Future MTP Senate Debates: (10am Sunday EST)

September 17th - VIRGINIA Incumbent Senator George Allen (R) vs. former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb (D)

October 1st - OHIO Incumbent Senator Mike DeWine (R) vs. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D)

October 8th - MISSOURI Incumbent Senator Jim Talent (R) vs. State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D)

October 15th - MINNESOTA OPEN SEAT - Sen. Mark Dayton (D) is retiring. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R)

October 29th - MARYLAND OPEN SEAT - Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring. Candidates to be determined in Sept. 12th Primary

[Thorgrim]

Race Dem GOP
PA-SEN Casey (D) 56% Santorum (R) 38%
OH-SEN Brown (D) 46% DeWine (R) 40%
MT-SEN Tester (D) 48% Burns (R) 45%
MO-SEN Talent (R) 50% McCaskill (D) 44%
MN-SEN Klobuchar (D) 50% Kennedy (R) 40%

Gallup from last week...now we have the actual numbers

[Thorgrim]

check out the new picture!