Senate Elections 2006

[Thorgrim]

Cantwell(D) 52%
McGavick(R) 35%
Rasmussen Sept 9th Poll

Byrd (D) 63% to 30%

southern governors races are all blowouts

and thats all the premium info for today

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

southern governors races are all blowouts

I know, it freakin' sucks

[Thorgrim]

SEPT 13TH UPDATE

Three notes:

1) New graphics! Just check them out from SurveyUSA, I uploaded them to LL so they won't fail like the last ones did
2) Ford has taken a 3 point lead in the TN Race as you can see in the new graphic
3) Chafee won the RI Primary, but still is #2 because there are no new polls numbers and Ohio and Montana are, at this stage, easier to see staying Republican than Rhode Island

[Thorgrim]

Missouri-

McCaskill (D) 45%
Talent (R) 42%

Rasmussen Sept 12th

McCaskill back in the lead

[Thorgrim]

New SV vision poll has kean leading by 4% with, surprise surprise, 16% undecided, this is pretty good considering menendez(D) just got hit with all that investigation shit

Candin(D) is already up 7 points in Rasm poll, this is before he even spent a time campaining against Steele(R)

Best News:
Jon Tester(D) is up 9 points, 52-43 against sen conrad burns in the Montana race (they were previously tied)

[Thorgrim]

new intro image...you guys like? Again, I am going to try and make this more graphically intensive as everyone is being flooded with information with less than 2 months to go before E-Day

[Thorgrim]

Sept 17th update!!

New Rasmussen polls...

Despite the primary win, Chafee is solidly behind Whitehouse

Overall:
Democrats lead by 6 or more in 4-GOP held seats
Democrats lead within the MoE of 2-3 seats (if you count Zogby for the 3rd)

Pointing to the fact that if the election were held today, the Democrats would pick up 6-7 seats, and lose NJ

Exciting times indeed

[Thorgrim]

Arizona might be becoming an interesting race

[Thorgrim]

Pollster.com

Rasmussen has Casey up 10, Keystone has him up 7...gaining over Santorum in both cases...good news for PA Dems

Swann is up 20pts in Rasmussen, his GOTV and coat tails will help Casey

[motivez]

What's GOTV?

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

What's GOTV?

Get Out the Vote

[Thorgrim]

That poll, by New Jersey-based Princeton Survey Research Associates International, showed Casey leading Santorum 47 percent to 28 percent. Twenty-two percent of the respondents were undecided and 3 percent favored Romanelli.

TV ads fail to move Pa. voters in poll - Yahoo! News

Jesus!

[SoFlaJDM]

oh my dear...

[motivez]

Ahh, I kept seeing that acronym used and was wondering.

I can't wait to see Santorum out of there. Looks like that Vet ad has been effective.

[Thorgrim]

Sun Sept 24th: Rasmussen Poll

New Jersey:
41% Kean
40% Menendez


Menendez gaining ground, and we all know which way those 19% undecideds are going to break...its NJ

[Thorgrim]

Quinnipiac University | Polling Results

Casey with 14pt lead from the most respected PA polling institute....haha this race is over

now no matter what happens ill be happy...as long as Santorum is thrown out thatll make me happy enough to not be depressed if the dems don't capture house and/or senate

[Thorgrim]

Democrats Cite New Hope in Bid to Retake Senate - New York Times

everything else is volatile right now...need a week or two and ill do an update that will be really radical (you'll see)

[Thorgrim]

I'd update the numbers but they are all the same:

Casey over Santorum has a big lead in PA, double digits, looks like a sure pickup
Tester keeps hitting 50%...over Burns...looks good
Brown keeps getting above 5% over an incumbent and will have huge coat tails from Strickland...
Whitehouse has an amazing ad up about senate control, and the polls are giving him the lead in every one

That's 4 seats for Dems

NJ keeps showing Kean in the lead, im forced to put it as lean GOP but everyone tells me the union/NJgotv is insane and im worrying over the wrong election

MO has been tied all year, no action, its almost boring how competitive it is

TN/VA are complete tossups because we don't know how people are going to vote about race (whether allen being called racist will affect enough or ford being black will matter enough)

AZ is a guess...9pts down but itll tighten as he's the incumbent and the D Gov will give coat tails

[ballz2wallz]

This election is starting to become very interesting. It's time to liven this thread up; and keep Thorgrim from posting to himself.

[ballz2wallz]

WARNING: November Races May Not Be As Close As They Appear
Thu Sep 28 2006 08:00:56 ET

Democratic pollsters are pushing lots of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well. If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats.

Obviously, that’s unlikely. Extremely unlikely, writes Stuart Rothenberg in fresh editions of ROLL CALL.

MORE

Rothenberg: "Count me as skeptical, and not only because most of these poll memos contain the dreaded “and when voters were read short descriptions about the candidates” second ballot that allegedly measures a challenger’s fundamental strength. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride..."

"Well, I’ve seen that message, in one way or another, in almost every Democratic polling memo that comes across my desk. They almost always cite Bush’s standing. They almost all argue that voters want change or are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

"And they are right, but only so far."

Developing...