Senate Elections 2006

[ballz2wallz]

New Hope for Democrats in Bid for Senate

WASHINGTON, Sept. 27 — Six weeks before Election Day, the Democrats suddenly face a map with unexpected opportunities in their battle for control of the Senate.

In Virginia, a state that few expected to be seriously competitive, Senator George Allen looks newly vulnerable after a series of controversies over charges of racial insensitivity, strategists in both parties say. In Tennessee, another Southern state long considered safely red, Representative Harold E. Ford Jr., a Democrat, has run a strong campaign that has kept that state in contention.

Elsewhere, Democratic challengers are either ahead or close in races in five states held by the Republicans: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, according to political strategists in both parties and the latest polls.

All of these races could shift direction in a matter of days, let alone six weeks, and Republicans are counting on their superior finances and large blocks of television advertising to hold the line. Democrats also have their own vulnerabilities, particularly in New Jersey, where Senator Robert Menendez is in a tight race with his Republican challenger, State Senator Thomas H. Kean Jr., according to recent polls.

Democrats must win six Republican seats to regain a Senate majority, meaning they would have to win nearly every close race. Even the most optimistic Democrats acknowledge that such a feat would require a big anti-Republican wave, a lot of money and a lot of luck.

Still, a shift in the Senate was always considered a long shot this year. Some analysts now say, however, that there are enough Republican seats facing serious challenges to make it at least plausible.

“There’s a big difference in talking about six seats in play and not five,” said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst.

In Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum, the No. 3 Republican in the Senate, has been lagging behind Bob Casey, the state treasurer, for months. In Rhode Island, Senator Lincoln Chafee, a Republican, overcame his primary challenge, but remains locked in a tight race with Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democrat and former state attorney general.

Senator Mike Dewine, Republican of Ohio, is fighting an unhappy political mood in his state, stoked by local Republican scandals and economic unease.. Independent polls suggest Mr. Dewine remains in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Representative Sherrod Brown.

In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns, the Republican, has been considered vulnerable for months to his Democratic challenger, Jon Tester, a farmer and state senator. And any route to a majority for the Democrats would have to include Missouri, where Senator Jim Talent, the Republican, is being challenged by Claire McCaskill, the state auditor.

Republicans’ hopes for a pickup look strongest, at the moment, in New Jersey. But another target is the open Democratic seat in Maryland, where Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is running against Representative Benjamin L. Cardin, a Democrat still trying to unify his party after a competitive primary campaign.

Republican strategists acknowledge the intensely competitive map but say they are ready for it.

“Anybody who says there’s no way the Democrats could regain control of the Senate, that’s just wishful thinking,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster active in numerous House and Senate races. “But there’s a long way between could and would, and the Republican resource advantage is just now coming to bear.”

Democrats are upbeat but wary.

Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said: “We will pick up seats. And if the stars continue to align, we can take back the Senate.”

Republicans say they have the money not only to defend their seats, but also to put Democrats on the defensive in Maryland, New Jersey and elsewhere.

“We obviously knew all along many of our Republicans were going to have difficult races, and they’ve known that as well, which is why they have more resources than their counterparts and are able to push back,” said Brian Nick, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Republican Senate candidates are getting a major boost from the Republican National Committee, which is financing an advertising campaign so far focused largely on Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee. This is widely viewed as a firewall strategy: If Republicans hold onto even one of those seats, it stymies the Democrats’ hopes of regaining a majority.

Mr. Schumer said, “The 800-pound gorilla is the money the R.N.C. is pouring into those races.”

Republicans also argue that six weeks out, many voters are only beginning to pay attention. In Tennessee, for example, Ben Mitchell, campaign manager for the Republican Senate candidate, former Mayor Bob Corker of Chattanooga, said voters would reject Mr. Ford when they learned about his voting record, which Republicans assert is at odds with his centrist image.

Pete Brodnitz, a pollster for Mr. Ford, countered that Tennessee voters had a “big appetite for change.”

Perhaps the most unexpected development this year is the competition in two Southern states. Democrats have fared poorly in the South in recent years, which has accounted, in large part, for their difficulty in gaining a Senate majority.

Tennessee, where the seat is held by the retiring majority leader, Bill Frist, is drawing intense interest from national Republicans. President Bush was in Memphis on Wednesday to raise money for Mr. Corker.

The Virginia race — between Mr. Allen and Jim Webb, the Democrat — looked safe for the Republicans until Mr. Allen made a demeaning reference to a young American man of Indian descent — a Webb campaign worker — at a rally in August. Then, last week, Mr. Allen reacted angrily to a reporter’s question about whether his mother had been born Jewish, which began another distracting episode for his campaign.

This week, he has faced accusations that he used racist slurs in the 1970’s and 1980’s — allegations that Mr. Allen has flatly denied.

This week, Mr. Allen’s campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, described the race as “competitive,” but asserted that would change as it became clear that Mr. Webb “stands with John Kerry, Ted Kennedy, Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton.”

Steve Jarding, an adviser to Mr. Webb, described the race as a dead heat, and said that while Mr. Allen retained a financial advantage, Mr. Webb’s fund-raising had soared of late.

Both parties are watching to see if Mr. Webb can take advantage of his new opening.

Analysts say the level of Senate competition should come as no surprise; Senate races are more likely to reflect national trends, they say, whereas most House districts are so carefully drawn on partisan lines that “they are safe against anything but a hurricane,” said Gary C. Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

[Thorgrim]

thats talking about the house in the Stu post...

[Thorgrim]

Big Update

-Added a lot of new polls and updated others
-Got rid of the pie charts (they were too big and the races they applied to are too volatile)
-Most importantly, I GREATLY reduced the size of the Original Post, anyone should be able to scan through it easily

Future Updates:
-Monday and Tuesday there should be a slew of new polls out
-By next week we should know where the Iraq NIE/Woodward situation has put the country, and where the Foley situation has put the Republican party
-By Mid-October I should have a nice medium sized graphic for every single Senate election listed, giving trends and a clear picture of how the race has developed so anyone could glance through and see where all 9 competitive (and maybe 5 additional possibly competitive) races stand in a matter of seconds

There also is a possibility I will be doing a House Elections roundup in Mid-October, which will be very small but show the nominees, their polling numbers, and a one sentence summary of each race. I will list them in 6-10 different categories...still working out the details, but it will be stickied if I do it...if I get the time to sit down and write it all out...there are some 53 possible Democratic pickups and 19 possible Republican pickups (I should try and limit it to 9 possible GOP pickups and and about 40 possible Democratic pickups...which is still 49 one sentence summaries with statistics!)

[Thorgrim]

October 1st (brand-spanking-new poll!)
Ford (D) 48%
Corker (R) 43%

Rasmussen: "Harold Ford's amazing progress continues"

Corker's unfavorability is now higher than his favorability, and remember Corker once led by 12pts on Rasmussen!

All of this polling success has made Scott Rasmussen change the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat!!!

I don't think he'd do that if he thought this was just a temporary little bump or a enough whites weren't going to vote for Ford at the last minute

UPDATE Some VA information Latest Oct 1st Rasmussen poll has

Allen 49%

Webb 43%

Basically unchanged but still good considering all ads Allen is running

[Thorgrim]

testing image, give me some feedback: (polls from last month)




another test

[Thorgrim]

n MONTANA Democrat Jon Tester, a state senator, is leading Burns by a 47-40 percent margin, with 10 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Libertarian candidate Stan Jones.

n MARYLAND Democrat Ben Cardin, a U.S. representative, is leading Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by a 47-41 percent margin in the race for an open seat, currently held by retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Paul Sarbanes.

n MISSOURI U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, a Republican, is neck-in-neck with Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill, Missouri’s state auditor. Both had support from 43 percent of the voters in the poll.

n NEW JERSEY Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez has a 44-41 percent lead over Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., a state senator.

n OHIO U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, holds a slim 45-43 percent lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine.

n PENNSYLVANIA Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer of Pennsylvania, has a solid 49-40 percent lead of Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

n RHODE ISLAND Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat and former attorney general in Rhode Island, is locked in a virtual tie with U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a Republican, with a 42-41 percent edge in the poll.

n TENNESSEE U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., a Democrat, holds a slender 43-42 percent lead over Republican Bob Corker in the race for the seat held by retiring Sen. Bill Frist, the current Republican majority leader in the U.S. Senate.

n VIRGINIA Incumbent Republican George Allen, a possible presidential candidate in 2008, is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Jim Webb, with both at 43 percent in the poll.

n WASHINGTON Democratic incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell, thought to be in a tough race, has a 50-40 percent lead over Republican challenger Mike McGavick.

[Thorgrim]

I fully updated EVERY race!

Biggest news:
If the election were today, October 2nd, using Mason Dixon and Rasmussen numbers, the Democrats would capture the Senate with 6 seats, with the Republicans holding on to Arizona and Virginia

Polls: Dems could take Senate - Politics - MSNBC.com

[SoFlaJDM]

the dems will take the senate

[Thorgrim]

There are all sorts of conflicting polls and its getting to the point where I am going to have to do averages rather than refering to MD, Ras, or SUSA...

That is going to take about a week or two to set up, and by then the numbers should be a little more stable because the Foley thing should have resolved in voters minds on how it is going to affect their vote

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

the dems will take the senate

Democrats poised for Senate gains: Reuters poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats are poised for U.S. Senate gains in the November 7 election, but face an uphill battle to pick up the six seats they need for control, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Thursday.

and

"It looks like Democrats will make gains, but it will be very difficult for them to take control," pollster John Zogby said. "It is going to take an awful lot of work for them to pick up six seats."

[ballz2wallz]

Results in key Senate races: Reuters poll

Here is a summary of the results in each race polled:

CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the party primary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.

MARYLAND - Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.

MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percent in a contest that has been close all year.

MONTANA - Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percent after Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donations from associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen as insensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.

NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerable after polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.

OHIO - Republican Sen. Mike DeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown at 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.

PENNSYLVANIA - Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Senate Republican, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor, by 48 percent to 36 percent.

RHODE ISLAND - Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a moderate Republican in one of the most Democratic states, trails Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by 45 percent to 41 percent.

TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlocked at 40 percent each.

VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen has survived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to 37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.

[SoFlaJDM]

ok, that's my take on things... so i still think the dems will take both the house and the senate.

[Thorgrim]

One trouble spot for Democrats: New Jersey. Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, appointed in December, holds only a three-point lead over Republican Tom Kean Jr.

But in Maryland, another Democratic seat targeted by the GOP, Ben Cardin leads Republican Michael Steele by a wide 15 points. Among other findings:

• In Missouri, McCaskill, who trailed Talent by 6 points in late August, now leads by 3.

• In Virginia, GOP Sen. George Allen, hit by allegations of racism, has a narrow three-point lead over Democrat James Webb.

USATODAY.com - Race for Senate control tightens

If you ask me, we have +4 gain locked up

Man...MO i really wish would break one way or the other and in TN i really want to know if this Ford lead is real or its "white guilt" polling and when they are in that ballot they will pull for a guy from their own race

[ballz2wallz]

Ford called self a lawyer but did not pass bar exam

Oops

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

Ford called self a lawyer but did not pass bar exam

Oops

He's never practiced as a lawyer! Oh the people on TN are going to turn on him now!

[Thorgrim]

Whitehouse (D) 49%
Chafee (R) 39%

10pt lead by Whitehouse as of Oct 8th, less than a month before the election, doesn't look good, I don't see what Whitehouse could to do to lose those votes...

The whole Chafee position was to rest on the family name and moderation and hope partisan attacks didn't bring you down enough by election day...See Bob Casey

However, to be behind by 10pts...he can't run ads going "HEY REMEMBER MY DAD!" and he's already spent weeks running the "im a moderate" ad, has done nothing

Chalk this one up to a Dem takeover in my books

As of now, I think the Dems have PA, RI and MT locked up, OH needs two more weeks to be locked up, NJ has swung back to Menendez (has small lead in an average of polls, much like Corzine did before his blowout in 05)

That leaves 3 races: MO, TN, VA...Dems win 2/3 and they have the Senate

Ford has kept his lead, did amazing in his debate, and Corkers two big weapons (calling Ford a liberal and bringing in his family name) were shot down in the first debate as Corker almost made the case that Ford was too close to Bush (too conservative) and Ford himself is not corrupt and his defense and optomistic nature easily deflected family charges...the only way Ford loses this is if there is a big race factor in 2006 in TN, that people are lying to the automated polls...which usually isn't the case its live pollsters they lie to, so I'd mark this down as likely Dem

So now we need 1 out of 2....MO or VA?

MO has the numbers, McCaskill basically tied in the debate on MTP, hopefully she'll do better in latter ones (if ur a Dem) and her numbers has her at 1 point lead...

VA has the energy, Webb has run a pretty right-of-center campaign that should peal away enough moderates while Allen's brash conservatism should charge up the left base in NoVa, but Webb seems to have lost his short lead and is now back to being behind and I guess we'll have to see come election day

If I had to predict, going by today: (We being Democrats)
We win by 10 in PA (poll average +11)
We win by 7 in MT (poll average +6)
We win by 7 in RI (poll average +4)
We win by 5 in OH (poll average +5)
We win by 3 in TN (poll average +2)
We win by 1 in MO (poll average -1)
We lose by 3 in VA (poll average -5)
We lose by 5 in AZ (poll average -9)
We lose by 10 in NV (poll average -12)
We win by 8 in NJ (poll average +2)

I am sure people are thinking "anything can happen in a month" well the same is true in AZ and NV

Consider this your October 8th update, see you guys in a week

[Thorgrim]

Oct 9th Poll:
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 52%
Rick Santorum (R) 39%

Rasmussen is going to change this race from "Leans Democrat" to "Solid Democrat"

[Thorgrim]

http://wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=57890

Brown has a 14 pt lead over DeWine (R) in Ohio

Again, solid +4 Dem pickup...can we get two more? Need two out of VA, TN, MO, AZ, NV (last two unlikely)

[Thorgrim]

SurveyUSA: McCaskill 51 - Talent 42

bad day for republicans