Senate Elections 2006

[Thorgrim]

Maryland: Ben Cardin (D) leads Michael Steele (R) 50% to 43%. When leaners are included, it's Cardin by nine, 53% to 44%
(race over)

Virginia: Senator George Allen (R) continues to struggle. He now leads James Webb (D) by just three percentage points, 47% to 44%
(now they are moving it to tossup)

-Rasmussen Oct 14th

If anyone is wondering why I don't update these races...some with obvious movements (NJ is no longer a tossup, but a Lean Dem) its because the situation is so volatile and when NKorea exploded its nuke, polls at that time made it look like Foleygate or whatever was going to be out the media, that Democrats would barely get 15 seats, and probably win 4-5 seats in the Senate

Now, on October 14th, nonpartisans are talking about 30-50 seat house gains for the Dems, Tucker Carlson on MSNBC said a "heterosexual page scandal" was going to be unleashed before election, to whose benefit I don't know, NKorea may test a second nuke, Senate polls are getting some wild results, with one poll putting Ford up 8 pts, another he's down 2pts...In MO as we see SUSA has the Dem up some 12 points! A GOP insider reported that Rove, Bush and the WH "aren't even preparing for the possibility of losing the House!" Why? That is beyond stupid, it is scary, is there some Diebold/binLaden/IranAttack November surprise waiting that will just completely change the race?

In a week, the picture should be clear enough for me to make my last round of "where we stand"...after that, the week of Nov I will turn this into more of a "what nonpartians think will happen in a few days"

Also as said I will put up some graphs, pie charts, and a seperate House thread, which I am reconsidering considering we have right wingers saying 18+ Dems, moderates saying 30+ dems, and left wingers saying 50+ dems! The thing is= everyone of them has a good case to be made

I see a good case that Dems could lose in IL-06, which is a race we should win, and if we don't...well looks like we're in the 15-20 range

I see a good case that Dems could win in AZ-01, if they do...that goes beyond Charlie Cook's SIXTY vulnerable GOP seats, and moves into "everyone thought this seat was solid" territory, which could mean a landslide none of us can even begin to predict

If it gets to the point where we are debating whether it will be 30 or 50, I don't know whether making a House thread is worth it

[Thorgrim]

Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, October 15, 2006; Page A01

Allen gets 49 percent, compared with 47 percent for Webb, within the 3 percentage point margin of error for the poll conducted over three days last week.

Allen and Webb in Virtual Tie, Post Poll Says - washingtonpost.com

[Thorgrim]

Senior Republican leaders have concluded that Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio, a pivotal state in this year's fierce midterm election battles, is likely to be heading for defeat and are moving to reduce financial support for his race and divert party money to other embattled Republican senators, party officials said.

Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states -- Missouri, Tennessee and, with Ohio off the table, probably Virginia -- while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage, party officials said Sunday

nytimes


So, that looks like +4 for sure...now lets see if we can win 2/3 or is that 2/5? (the lack of arizona and nevada polling is troublesome to me)

[motivez]

I hope Webb can find something to get an extra boost.

The defeat of Allen would be not only a great gain for the Senate, but the essential end of a political career for someone who was once considered a "front runner" for President.

[Thorgrim]

OH-SEN: Poll: Brown Opens 12-Point Lead | TPMCafe

Looks like DeWine may have lost this one, an incumbent pretty much never has a 10 point upswing in the last 3 weeks of an election

[Thorgrim]

Rasmussen October 16th
Casey (D) 55%
Santorum (D) 42%

and...we're done with that race

[SoFlaJDM]

the gop is crumbling state by state

texas here we come!!!

[Thorgrim]

its either tied or a blowout...we need a fresh BATCH (meaning 3-4) polling in MO, TN and VA

[motivez]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Rasmussen October 16th
Casey (D) 55%
Santorum (D) 42%

and...we're done with that race

Good riddance Santorum.

[Phantom]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...10-20-08-23-38

Oct 20, 8:23 AM EDT

HAMDEN, Conn. (AP) -- Sen. Joe Lieberman has built a 17-point lead over Democratic challenger Ned Lamont, according to the first Quinnipiac University poll since the two faced off in a debate this week.

woah, looks like Lieberman has a job for the next 6 years

[SoFlaJDM]

he's down 8 in the oct 16th zogby

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Phantom

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...10-20-08-23-38



woah, looks like Lieberman has a job for the next 6 years

the poll was taken before the TWO debates had a chance to kick in, if you think CFL is going to win by 17pts...thats a bet it'd wager against

Remember, QP has had a hard time in polling in CT, Lamont had a 14pt lead then in one week it went down to like 4pts...weird

[AVengeance]

The MO senate race is going to be so damn close, because of the other issues beind decided there. There's a cloning/stem cell issue which has liars on both sides, and there's a huge tax increase on tobacco products on the line, too. Turnout is going to be HUGE.

[motivez]

I'm really going to be interested to see how turnout compares this year to other years.. I have a feeling it's going to be high all over the country.

[Thorgrim]

Pollster.com

its really really pretty, and gives tons of information, more than I can, sometime this week I'll keep the content but take down the poll information and put this link at the very top because as far as Senate numbers go, its simple and all you need to know

[ballz2wallz]

GOP holds narrow lead in must-win Senate races

WASHINGTON — Republican Senate candidates have fought back to regain an edge in two key races, pivotal battlegrounds that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to a series of new McClatchy-MSNBC polls.

Republicans hold narrow leads in Tennessee and Virginia, two must-win states where the party hopes to build a Southern bulwark against a Democratic tide that's threatening their Senate seats elsewhere across the country.

The new polls show Democrats leading in two states they must hold - New Jersey and Washington - as well as in five states now held by Republicans: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

Yet even if Democrats take all seven of those, they still need to win either Tennessee or Virginia to take control of the Senate. Democrats must gain six seats overall to take a majority.

``Control of the Senate is going to come down to Tennessee and Virginia,'' said Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. who conducted the surveys for McClatchy-MSNBC in eight states, as well as one in Virginia for several major newspapers there.

Coker noted that Tennessee and Virginia are culturally conservative states in which Republicans have won Senate campaigns for more than a decade. Also, the Republican candidates in each state appeared to find their footing in recent weeks after missteps earlier.

In Virginia, incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen stopped losing ground after he was accused of racial insensitivity and went on the attack against his Democratic opponent, James Webb, in part charging that Webb was insensitive to women in the military.

In Tennessee, Republican candidate Bob Corker fired top campaign staff and went on the attack against his Democratic rival, Rep. Harold Ford.

While many analysts and insiders of both major parties expect the Republicans to lose control of the House of Representatives, the Senate remains a close contest. Control of either house of Congress is crucial to passing legislation, while the Senate has sole power to confirm appointments to the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court.

The polls revealed a slightly shifting landscape in recent weeks, with Democrats consolidating leads in several states but Republicans not only clawing back in Tennessee and Virginia but also narrowing their gap in Montana, all but given up as lost by national Republican leaders. Of the nine key battleground states, Republicans are ahead in two and within the polls' 4 percentage-point margin of error in three more.

Iraq remains the dominant issue in all but one battleground state, despite weeks of news coverage of the page scandal in the House, North Korea's nuclear test and record highs in the stock market. That hurts Republicans, as those voting on Iraq break for Democrats by margins of 2-1 or more.

Terrorism - usually a Republican strength - has receded as a major issue in most battleground states, with the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks and news of a foiled alleged plot to blow up U.S.-bound planes fading into memory.

Even Republican efforts to rekindle fear of terrorism might not help in most of these Senate campaigns:


Voters who say they’re worried about a terrorist attack on the United States gave the Republican Senate candidate a clear edge only in Montana and Tennessee.


They favored the Democrat over the Republican in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.


They split almost evenly between the Democrat and Republican in Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio and Washington state.

The polls partly affirmed decisions by Republican leaders to build a Southern wall to protect their Senate majority, steering campaign cash into Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia while pulling it out of states such as Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Here are snapshots of the races, first for Republican-held Senate seats:

MISSOURI

Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill led incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent by 46-43 percent. They were tied 43-43 percent in the same poll three weeks ago.

McCaskill gained in part because Missouri voters focused more on Iraq in recent weeks. They ranked it their top issue; before, health care was their top concern. Those listing Iraq as their top issue supported the Democrat by a ratio of better than 2-1.

McCaskill also continued to lead among voters most concerned about health care, as well as the economy.

Talent led by 80-11 percent among those who ranked terrorism their top issue, but terrorism ranked fifth on Missourians' priority list. And those who said they were very worried about a terrorist attack on the United States preferred McCaskill by 49-35 percent.

MONTANA

Democrat Jon Tester, the state Senate president, led incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns by 46-43 percent. Tester led three weeks ago by 47-40 percent.

Burns remains vulnerable largely because he was tied to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and has been hit by attacks from Tester on his ethics. More Montana voters, 43 percent, had an unfavorable opinion of Burns than a favorable opinion, 42 percent.

Iraq dominates Montana's political landscape, ranked the top issue nearly 2-1 over terrorism. Iraq voters favored Tester by more than 2-1.

The threat of terrorism remains a strength for Burns. Voters who say terrorism is their top issue favor him by 8-1. Those very worried about a terrorist attack support him by 54-30 percent.

OHIO

Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown led incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine by 48-40 percent. Three weeks ago, Brown led by 45-43 percent.

Ohio is the one state in which Iraq isn't the top issue. Voters there rank the economy and jobs as their top concern, reflecting the retrenchment of the U.S. auto industry and its impact on Ohio assembly plants and parts suppliers. It also reflects years of losing manufacturing jobs.

Voters who say the economy is their top issue support Brown by 53-35 percent. Iraq is a close second, and Iraq voters support Brown by better than 3-1.

Breakout: Brown owes his lead in part to the fact that he's holding his base - drawing 84 percent of Democrats - while tapping into DeWine's by winning 18 percent of Republicans. He also benefits from a gender gap: He leads among women 53-36, while he and DeWine split the male vote.

PENNSYLVANIA

Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 51-39 percent. Casey led by 49-40 percent three weeks ago.

Casey, the son of a popular former governor, may have found the right key to this state as a Democrat who opposes legal abortion. He leads by a 4-1 ratio in heavily Democratic Philadelphia, by 5-3 in the closely divided Philadelphia suburbs and by 5-4 in and around Pittsburgh, and manages 38 percent support in culturally conservative central Pennsylvania.

Casey holds 90 percent of liberals, but also wins 17 percent of conservatives. He leads among women by 52-35 percent and among men by 50-43 percent.

Iraq is the top issue. Terrorism ranks fourth, a top priority for just 11 percent. That's noteworthy given the state's exposure to the 2001 attacks: United Flight 93 crashed there, and Pennsylvania is close to New York and Virginia, the sites of the other attacks that day.

RHODE ISLAND

Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse led incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee by 48-43 percent, a wider margin than his 42-41 percent lead three weeks ago.

Rhode Island is poison to Republicans this year, with the lowest approval rating for President Bush (22 percent) and Congress (15 percent) of any battleground state. It also is the most tuned in to the Iraq war, with 36 percent calling it their top issue.

A whopping 74 percent of Rhode Island voters want to get troops out of Iraq, and they support Whitehouse.

Even Chafee's much-publicized distance from Bush and the war aren't enough to survive in that environment. He trails among Iraq voters, health-care voters and those worried about a terrorist attack.

TENNESSEE

Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, led Democrat Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by 45-43 percent. Three weeks ago, Ford led by 43-42 percent. The campaign is for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Bill Frist, who's retiring.

Tennessee remains relatively hospitable turf for Republicans. The state gives Bush a 46 percent approval rating, among his highest. Just 34 percent think that House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., should resign because of the House page sex scandal, the lowest among battleground states.

Iraq is the top issue, and Iraq voters support Ford by a ratio of better than 3-1. Yet 44 percent approve of Bush's handling of Iraq. And those who support the president's policy on Iraq prefer Corker by 84-7 percent.

Race is an undercurrent in Tennessee. Ford would be the first African-American ever elected to the Senate from the South. He leads among African-Americans by 86-4 percent; Corker leads among whites by 53-36 percent.

VIRGINIA

Republican Sen. George Allen led Democrat James Webb by 47-43 percent, regaining a lead he held in early September. Three weeks ago they were tied at 43 percent.

Among the states in play this year, Virginia is one of the most hospitable to Republicans. The state's voters give Bush relatively high marks for his handling of the economy, 54 percent, and for fighting terrorism, 57 percent.

Yet Iraq is a top issue, and that's not good for Republicans even in the state that's home to the Pentagon and the Atlantic Fleet. Just 43 percent of Virginia voters approve of Bush's handling of the Iraq war.

That helps explain why Allen, a staunch defender of the war, recently started criticizing it.

Also, Allen trails Webb in the Hampton Roads region, heavily populated with military families and retirees. Webb is a former Navy secretary under President Reagan who opposes the Iraq war.

Here are snapshots of the Democrat-held Senate seats:

NEW JERSEY

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez led Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator, by 45-42 percent. He led by the same margin, 44-41 percent, three weeks ago.

The race there is a mudfest, with Menendez facing questions and ethics attacks over a land deal. Voters hold him in low regard, with 34 percent having a favorable opinion of him and the same percentage holding an unfavorable opinion.

Kean, the son of a popular former governor, fares only slightly better, with 35 percent holding a favorable opinion and 29 percent unfavorable.

Iraq beats terrorism as the top issue, noteworthy in a state that lost people in the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center. Iraq voters break for the Democrat by 8-1.

Those who rank terrorism their top issue support Kean by a ratio of 3-1. Yet those who say they're very worried about a terrorist attack split evenly between Kean and Menendez.

WASHINGTON STATE

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell led Republican Mike McGavick by 52-37 percent, increasing her lead from 50-40 percent three weeks before.

Cantwell had the highest favorable rating - 48 percent - of any candidate in the battleground states.

Washington state is hostile to Republicans this year, giving some of the lowest approval ratings to Bush (34 percent) and Congress (22 percent).

Iraq is the top issue, followed by the economy and jobs in a distant second place. Terrorism lags behind in seventh place. Iraq voters support Cantwell by a ratio of 8-1.

HOW WE POLL

The McClatchy-MSNBC Poll is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time it was conducted. It is not a prediction of how people will vote on Election Day.

The poll of 625 likely voters in each state was conducted by telephone Oct. 17-21.

Those interviewed were selected by a random variation of telephone numbers from a cross-section of telephone exchanges. That means anyone in the state with a land-phone line had the same odds of being called as anyone else. Cell phone numbers are not in the exchanges.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time, the correct numbers could be up to 4 percentage points above our poll's percentage point findings or up to 4 percentage points below them. The other 5 percent of the time, the correct numbers could vary even more.

The sampling margin of error doesn't include other variables that could affect results, including the way questions are worded or the order in which they're asked.

The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll was conducted for several major state newspapers and made available to McClatchy Newspapers.

[ballz2wallz]

'06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP

October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.

With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.

Here's the evidence:

* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.

* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.

* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.

* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.

* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)

Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.

None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.

Why are Republican fortunes brightening?

The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.

Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.

Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.

Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.

[ballz2wallz]

Koch: GOP will hold both houses; Now, here's my advice on Iraq

Democrats and Republicans are agonizing over their positions on the Iraq war.

The polls indicate that a tsunami effect is expected, with the loss of 40 Republican seats in the House and enough in the Senate to shift control of both Houses to the Democrats.

However, I am sticking with my prediction that the Republicans will hold both Houses, because the Republican base made up of the Christian right and evangelicals is, for ideological reasons, more committed to voting than the Democratic base. I have said continually that the Democrats should be running on the issues they do best — Social Security, comprehensive medical insurance, abortion (choice), education, housing, fair taxation, and not engaging in Bush-bashing as the major reason to elect them.

A long time ago I urged that the Democrats come up with their version of the 1994 Republican "Contract With America". That approach taken by Newt Gingrich for the Republicans, then the minority party, provided Republicans with a great victory, making Gingrich Speaker of the House. The Democratic leadership decided otherwise and Bush-bashing and the conduct of the Iraq War became the overriding issues.