Senate Elections 2006 - Page 7

Thorgrim · 10-25-2006, 01:03 AM

Poll: Senate within Dems' grasp, but pitfalls remain - Los Angeles Times

Webb up 3 points over Allen as of Oct 23rd

The Dem wave looks like its gonna push Webb over Allen, im betting the same in MO

Only 13 days...the light is turning yellow the GOP only has limited time to turn things around

Thorgrim · 10-26-2006, 05:22 PM

57% Brown (D)
37% DeWine (R)
6% Other/Undecided

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_articl...?storyid=58452

20pt lead in OH for the Senator AND Governor? Oh that does not bode well for the other federal elections

motivez · 10-26-2006, 05:23 PM

Thorgrim · 10-27-2006, 05:28 PM

Tester hits 51%+ and a 4pt lead
Montana: Jon Tester (D) is clinging to a narrow lead over Senator Conrad Burns (R). It's Tester 51% Burns 47%
-Rasmussen oct 27

motivez · 10-28-2006, 09:46 PM

Really coming down to the wire on a ton of these races

Thorgrim · 10-29-2006, 01:38 AM

Washington Post News Poll October 22 - 26, 2006 (washingtonpost.com)

Candin up by 11% the night before the MTP debate...the consensus is that Steele beat him pretty decently in the other MD debate, so if Candin can get by with a minor loss, he should be ok in this blue state

Personally I don't think Steele has the chance people say he does...when it comes to election day, a lot of black people are going into that booth mad at GWB and the GOP, and they are gonna see that (R) or "REPUBLICAN" and cringe, and hit the button/switch for the Democrat, I think people like to SAY they're going to vote for Steele (although he's never had a lead all race) because of the impressive campaigning he's done, but when it comes down the booth...Steele was right, the R is a scarlet letter...especially this year

It's the opposite of TN, where I think it'll be a 10pt+ blowout by Corker even though some polls have it tied now...its just people trying to sound nice on the phone "oh sure I'd vote for that black guy"...but you get in that booth...

Thorgrim · 10-29-2006, 05:11 AM

October 29th Final Update, HUGE!!

Whew that took a lot of editing, anyone wanting to catch up this weekend or week can check out this thread and be up to date on where the Senate races are...

"What is this about a Forecasting Thread?"

I will make a thread that will be in this format:

AZ-08: (OPEN) - Poll Average: 49.5 Giffords (D) - 34.7 Graf
Info: RNCC completely gave up on the race and Giffords has a huge lead, Solid Dem Pick-up.

onto Senate Example:

Ohio: R Incumbent - Poll Average: 50 Brown (D) - 40 DeWine (R)
Info: 3 days to go and down by 10 points, Solid Dem Pick-up.

It will be a straight list, starting with the House, then Senate, then Governors (might leave out governors). Only one sentence of information, but I will give the polling numbers and rank them according to the general consensus on who is most likely to fall (hint: You don't get to a democrat until seat #40) Also, that sentence will usually be better than AZ-08, giving you the best summary you could get on the 'net. Great thread to look at Nov 7th to see how good/bad things are going for your party. Or that weekend for that matter...

If you enjoyed the OP, recommendations are much apprecieted for reputation

Thorgrim · 10-30-2006, 10:00 AM

I guess i should still post poll results here in here for until next weekend

the cool ones anyway

New Jersey: Menendez (D) 49% Kean (R) 44%. Data and Article Coming Later. Last week, they were tied at 45%. Support for Menendez remains soft. Just 31% are certain they will vote for him. Another 13% plan to vote for him but could change their mind while 5% are simply leaning in his direction. For Kean, the numbers are 34% certain, 9% likely, and 1% leaning.
Oct 30th Rasmussen

Thorgrim · 10-30-2006, 01:53 PM

TN Ford 48-43 BSG-D
VA Webb 47-43 GHY-D

According to Democratic internals, both their guys are up in VA and TN, but ofcourse...internals that are released...take with a grain of salt

Note: The republicans are really being coy about their internal numbers...hmm

SoFlaJDM · 10-30-2006, 06:03 PM

i think it's obvious where this election is going

this thread is getting a little quiet this close to election day

Thorgrim · 10-31-2006, 12:57 AM

Hampton,Va.(HFR:RICHMOND, Va.) -- A new statewide poll Monday showed Democrat Jim Webb with a slight lead in next week's close Senate race against Republican incumbent George Allen.

Among likely voters, the former Republican was the choice of 50 percent of those surveyed while 46 percent favored Allen and 4 percent were undecided.
New CNN poll shows Webb with slight edge on Allen

Here are the other two polls from today for good measure: (from Dkos)

Rasmussen. 10/25. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/25 results)

Allen (R) 46 (50)
Webb (D) 51 (48)

Garin Hart Yang (D) for the DSCC. 10/26-29. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (No trend lines)

Allen (R) 38
with leaners: 43

Webb (D) 43
with leaners: 47

Thorgrim · 11-02-2006, 03:21 PM

since everyone ignored my post, might as well post it here for posterity:

New Jersey: In a Wednesday night survey, Senator Robert Menendez (D) leads challenger Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 48% to 43%. Data and Article Coming Later. Among those not committed to either candidate, just 4% are Republicans and 28% are Democrats. When this information is released to the public, the race will be shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Montana: Also from Wednesday night... Democrat Jon Tester leads Senator Conrad Burns, 50% to 46%. Data and Article Coming Later.

^^^ Normally this would go in my Senate thread, but its so close to the election and basically this is huge that

1) as you can see by the numbers, Menendez not only has a 5pt lead but its those Democrats who are undecided, and from Corzine we can see where they break...this race is over unless menendez gets another investigation!

2) Tester has stopped any Burns momentum, he has a 50% commanding position and 4pt lead...who do you think those 4% are going to break for? This is after the Kerry situation so I really don't see anyone watching political ads this weekend making up their minds...so unless there is some huge event Monday, I'd call this race for Tester

SoFlaJDM · 11-02-2006, 06:11 PM

i'm watching closely..

i think a certain select few are ignoring it

SICKGUY · 11-07-2006, 10:32 PM

night is starting to look good! go, go, go!

SICKGUY · 11-07-2006, 10:34 PM

r.i. to the dems! i actually thought chaffee was a good republican.

WickedLou9 · 11-07-2006, 10:38 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

since everyone ignored my post, might as well post it here for posterity:

New Jersey: In a Wednesday night survey, Senator Robert Menendez (D) leads challenger Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 48% to 43%. Data and Article Coming Later. Among those not committed to either candidate, just 4% are Republicans and 28% are Democrats. When this information is released to the public, the race will be shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Montana: Also from Wednesday night... Democrat Jon Tester leads Senator Conrad Burns, 50% to 46%. Data and Article Coming Later.

^^^ Normally this would go in my Senate thread, but its so close to the election and basically this is huge that

1) as you can see by the numbers, Menendez not only has a 5pt lead but its those Democrats who are undecided, and from Corzine we can see where they break...this race is over unless menendez gets another investigation!

2) Tester has stopped any Burns momentum, he has a 50% commanding position and 4pt lead...who do you think those 4% are going to break for? This is after the Kerry situation so I really don't see anyone watching political ads this weekend making up their minds...so unless there is some huge event Monday, I'd call this race for Tester

memendez is ahead 52% to Kean's 46% with 30% of precincts reporting

Thorgrim · 11-07-2006, 11:39 PM

up to 8 seats in the house...still stuck at 3 in the senate, waiting for results...we already have a majority of governorships

RMNIXON · 11-07-2006, 11:47 PM

Put your pants back on, your not going to win the Senate.

Did I win Yet?

You should see the beating I gave the other guy!

Thorgrim · 11-07-2006, 11:53 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Put your pants back on, your not going to win the Senate.

Did I win Yet?

You should see the beating I gave the other guy!

its still up in the air, and
1) the senate is already pretty liberal (amnesty bill)
2) 49-50 is a lot better than 45...change a lol more votes to make the senate even more liberal

Biggest point: you only need one chamber of congress to launch investigations

seriously though, if we captured the Senate, it would hurt our 2008 chances at the WH because we'd have too much power

but im optomistic about the races, we haven't lost one yet, and we only need to win 3/5 of the remaining

garbagemanlb · 11-08-2006, 01:57 AM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

its still up in the air, and
1) the senate is already pretty liberal (amnesty bill)
2) 49-50 is a lot better than 45...change a lol more votes to make the senate even more liberal

Biggest point: you only need one chamber of congress to launch investigations

seriously though, if we captured the Senate, it would hurt our 2008 chances at the WH because we'd have too much power

but im optomistic about the races, we haven't lost one yet, and we only need to win 3/5 of the remaining

I bet we take the Senate.