Senate Elections 2006

[Thorgrim]

FINAL UPDATE: OCTOBER 29TH
Every single race has been given its final update, and every other part (Images, Surprise Races, etc) has been updated as well. There will be no more further information posted in this OP.
NOTE: Next weekend (Nov 4-5) I will make a Senate, House and Governors FORECASTING thread that will be very short on background information, any developments in this last week before the election will be in that thread.

Republican States and Candidates are in this Red when titled or cited in polls
Democratic States and Candidates are in this Blue when titled or cited in polls


Dark Red or Dark Blue means locked up for respective party, Light versions mean it "Leans" towards that party, Yellow means it's a pure toss up

49 Democratic favored seats, (included are 3 leaners)
48 Republican favored seats, (included are 2 leaners)
3 Toss-ups

Races are sorted by those most likely to switch from one party to another

Most Competitive Senate Seats


For all polling data, go to:
Pollster.com Senate Map and Averages





#1

Rick Santorum (R) Incumbent - Pennsylvania

The third most powerful Republican in the Senate is facing a strong challenge from the son of former Democratic Governor Bob Casey. Santorum has become one of the most conservative voices in the Senate, while his state has gone for Gore and Kerry by over 50% in both elections.

Bob Casey, Junior holds the exact same positions of his father, pro-life even to the point of backing President Bush on his Stem Cell research restrictions. His family name is golden is Pennsylvania, and Casey has dominated the polls by as much as 20% against an incumbent with no major scandals or political problems.

Suffice to say, Santorum is the most likely incumbent to be defeated, and the Democrats best chance at picking up a seat.

Note: Rendell has taken a 22 point lead in some polls, which at this stage would give Casey coattails, even though he does not need them at this point.

Final Update - October:
Santorum has been unable to break 41% for the entire campaign (stretching back to Feb 2005) and with the Green off the ballot, he would have to jump 10pts in 9 days, and how this campaign has gone, it would be absolutely impossible. Expect this to tie with Ohio for biggest landslide against an incumbent. Locked as a Solid Democratic pick-up.





#2

Mike DeWine (R) Incumbent - Ohio

The Ohio Republican Party is in shambles in which overwhelming corruption charges related to Jack Abramoff is just a side-story. As one of the "gang of 14" he has lost support amongst conservatives (he voted for gun control laws including an amendment to extend the assault weapons ban and refusing to drill in Alaska), and Gov. Taft's scandals has hurt the potential turnout of traditional republicans, leaving an energetic democratic base to challenge him.

Seasoned politician Sherrod Brown is an experienced candidate, however that is not neccesarily good as he voted more liberal as a Congressman than Ohio's typical voter would.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Strickland is beating the Republican by up to twenty points, and this is likely to give coattails to Brown.

Final Update - October:
DeWine (R) is down 8-20pts as an incumbent in a state that is extremely anti-GOP with just 9 days before the election. It is nearly impossible to see how he can get out of this in a mere 9 days. Solid Democrat Pickup.





#3

Lincoln Chafee (R) Incumbent - Rhode Island

The Liberal-Moderate Republican from a deep Blue State (60% for Kerry) is facing off against decently-known Democrat (however Whitehouse does not have the strong family name that Chafee has) Whitehouse is in the lead and Rasmussen has the race as "Leans Democrat"

Final Update - October:
Down by a double digit average, Chaffee seems to be at the end of the road, this would be a Solid Lock like the other two races above, if there was not the possibility that many voters, like in 2000, will still think they are voting for his father.





#4

Conrad Burns (R) Incumbent - Montana

Wracked by the Abramoff scandal, which has been well known in Montana for many months, he is already one of the most unpopular senators in the country. To make matters worse, even when Bush carried the state in 2000 by 25 points, Burns only won by 4 points. However, it is a very republican state.

Montana's State Senate President, Democrat Jon Tester, showed himself quite capable and likeable in his debates with Conrad Burns.

Final Update - October:
Tester still continues to get above 50% in the polls, with a 3-5pt lead, yet Republicans in Montana seem to be "coming home" the last few days, meaning this race will be close. From recent Rasmussen polling it seems as though that process has stopped and Tester still has the lead. Burns is still an unpopular GOP incumbent and facing a well-liked candidate who has the lead, in any other state this would be a lock, but we have to put this as just probable Democratic pick-up.





#5

Jim Talent (R) Incumbent - Missouri

A state that has had its share of down to the wire races, Talent was barely elected to the Senate and had previously lost bids to the governor’s mansion. His challenger, Democrat Claire McCaskill, also barely lost the gubernatorial race (Getting 48% of the vote compared to the Republican getting 51%).

With state ballot propositions on minimum wage, stem cell research and other issues that Missouri residents all side with McCaskill (D) on...that could be the turnout edge that bumps the statistical tie to a Democratic win.

Final Update - October:
McCaskill(D) and Talent (R) continue to go up and down within the Margin of Error. Two factors play against each other, Talent has a superior GOP GOTV operation, but McCaskill has the challenger advantage in MoE situations and there is a anti-GOP wave to help that, the race would be a complete toss-up had it not been for the Michael J Fox ad, Bloomberg has polled and found it to be almost definitely the most powerful ad of the election. With Fox's appearance with Katie Couric and recent information about his medication, the possible backlash for putting such an emotionally charged ad up has faded, and going in this is still a toss-up but an extremely narrow edge has to be given to McCaskill





#6

George Allen (R) - Virginia

The infamous Macaca incident has given this race new life, and funding has picked up $3 million for Webb, but Allen has more money than any other incumbent up for a serious race. Allen faced repeated racism charges, and overall just stumbled almost the entire campaign against a strong veteran challenger in an Anti-GOP year where Blueish Northern Virginia is becoming increasingly dominant in the state.

Final Update - October:
Webb faced recent attacks on passages from his novels, however the media seems to have let the story die during the weekend and reporters covering it seemed to tame the story so much and put it as a "George Allen" release that it came off as more a (possibly successful) partisan attack than a campaign-destroying story. Webb has fought back at first passively showing Republicans with questionable works such as Scooter Libby, but now the DSCC has stepped in and made extremely personal attacks against Allen citing that he is hiding his arrest record he gave to the VA BAR because it is extremely negative of his character and his divorce file was full of material that Virginians would not like. It looks as though this turn into a mudslinging contest the last few days before the election, but still a tossup.





#7

[Open] - Tennessee

The DNC has put its weight behind Harold Ford, famous for running 2nd in the House Minority Leader post, and being a moderate alternative as a Democrat from the House, he is considered a rising minority star like Barak Obama.

Bob Corker, the Republican Nominee, has the ability to self-finance and has the clear fact that no southern state has ever elected a black Senator and whites infamously lie that they are considering to vote for a black politician and home election day they vote white.

Final Update - October:
Ford has launched some aggressive ads and has shown himself to be by far the sharpest candidate the Dems have, but will that be enough to elect a black democrat from an infamously corrupt family? Right now it appears somewhat doubtful, Corker shookup his campaign staff and regained the lead. Also what Chris Matthews called a "racist" ad by the RNC was placed that Corker publically asked to be pulled, however the damage is done, but will it race-bait anti-black voters to the polls, or cause a backlash and give Ford back the lead? That's why this is a toss-up





#8


Menendez (D) Recently Appointed - New Jersey


Menendez is seen as being part of the "democratic machine" in New Jersey that is corrupt, however as he is going onto the national level and has shown an ability to be a competant Senator, and there is the old adage that "The only thing New Jersey voters hate more than their corrupt politicians, are Republicans"

The Republican Tom Kean is the son of the former governor is currently a state senator; he is a popular for his moderate approaches to promoting schools and protecting the environment. In particular the "ethics in government" focus of his term could hurt Menendez.

However, NJ is a democratic state; it gave Gore 56% of the vote (16+ points above Bush) and in a post-911 world, even with its proximity and relationship with New York City, gave Kerry the state by 6 points (52.7-46.5). Such a democratic state, in a midterm election, is highly likely to give the edge to Menendez. Who has a huge union turnout machine.

Final Update - October:
Menendez faced more corruption charges and is under investigations, however the charges seem more severe than the actual investigation, but surprisingly Menendez bounced back and has a lead in every new poll. With 9 days to go, he is almost in an identical situation Corzine found himself in 2005, (small lead, more money, corruption stigma) and he ended up winning by Double Digits. This race is barely marked competitive because Menendez appears more corrupt than Corzine, but his lead plus the NJ Democratic Machine in this anti-GOP year gives a heavy advantage to Menendez (However he is still open to stumble)






Races that may surprise us: Final Update

Lieberman - Connecticut
The polls are crazy and so is the situation, just go to:
Connecticut United States Senate election, 2006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Kyl (R) Incumbent - Arizona: Kyl has fallen down to a 6 point lead, but there's been no media buzz and this is the closest Pederson's gotten (ASU Poll, extremely reliable), this poll was conducted during a week when Dems had a 18-20 generic ballot advantage across the US, which raises the issue that if he can't get within the MoE then, how can he win on election day? The only chance is on the back of the popular Democratic governor, up to three districts going Democrat, and a national wave causing an upset, but that still does not qualify this as a competitive race

John Ensign (R) Incumbent - Nevada: Ensign holds a steady double-digit point lead over Jack Carter (Jimmy Carter's son), but some polls have shown a single digit race, and with a national tide and the governors race getting racy, you never know.

Candin (D) - Maryland: Michele Steele has shown himself to be a formidable candidate, but polls are varying whether he is losing by few points or double digits, either way MD had one of the highest primary turnouts for Democrats in its history this year, the GOP did not...there is a strong Democratic machine in MD and it is hard to see Candin losing.
Steele's debate victory (the last debate for MD-Sen) on MTP did leave a few bits for Candin to use (such as Steele's idea of adopting 400,000 stem cells and growing them into American children every year) but on the whole Steele solidly won, but did not "knockout" Candin. Since this is a repeat of an earlier debate, which afterwards showed a double-digit lead for Candin, it is to be taken with a grain of salt. The only thing wrong with Candin is that he comes off as a stiff politician, but that is easy trumped by near 70% disapproval of Bush (and probably the GOP) in Maryland.

[Thorgrim]

My election 2006 wrap-up thread below is pretty good...as far as new numbers go...I might wait until Zogbys new ones come out in 2 weeks...by then perhaps we'll see some reliable numbers coming out of TN, OH, VA and AZ

Dems look strong at holding all their seats, and picking up PA, MT and RI...up by atleast 5 in each poll

NV looks like a strong GOP hold, the rest are either 30pt blowouts or the data is unreliable

[SoFlaJDM]

things are not looking good for katherine harris in florida... looks like there there is an investigation on her in regards to the Mitchell Wade thing

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

things are not looking good for katherine harris in florida... looks like there there is an investigation on her in regards to the Mitchell Wade thing

shes been toast for awhile, Nelson should spend the next few months in Bermuda just to see how close Harris could get

[motivez]

I was really suprised there was no challenger for Harris.. looks like it's going to be an easy seat pickup for the Dems

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

I was really suprised there was no challenger for Harris.. looks like it's going to be an easy seat pickup for the Dems

you mean an easy hold

[motivez]

Er, yeah. I mean, she's not going to be much of a challenge to anyone.

PS we still need formatting and color in your post!

[Thorgrim]

I have a girl in her bra and thong about 3 feet away from me watching a haunting on the DSC channel, and you want me to format that whole damn thing now?

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

I have a girl in her bra and thong about 3 feet away from me watching a haunting on the DSC channel, and you want me to format that whole damn thing now?

what the hell are you even doing on here if thats the case?

[6SpeedTA95]

I'd like to hear you elaborate on how socialism is nothing like marxism, they have some similar qualities.

Also since when did Maria Cantwell become a moderate? She's a liberal has been her whole life. Check her voting record

edit: BTW thorg you dont have to derail your thread to explain socialism

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

what the hell are you even doing on here if thats the case?

She's been here for three hours, so i was able to post for a little, take a two hour break, and now shes watching the history channel special about Galian the Greco-Roman doctor

[Thorgrim]

Socialism, Liberalism and Marxism are all radically different

Liberalism vigorously supports the free market, and HELPS it through regulation and government funded projects

Socialism does not support a true free market, but rather believes that the country should own the businesses, and workers should vote to elect their bosses

Marxism has no element of a market at all, advocates the violent revolution to overthrow any market-related government, and also wants to eliminate money all together, instead rewarding workers with promotions

[SoFlaJDM]

update today http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...Ad=1&mod=blogs


Texas incumbent Bailey Hutchison lost almost 10 points in the polls in 1 month.

Missouri's incumbent Jim Talent still holds a slowly decreasing lead, but not by much.... polls are staying within the MOE.

Casey is starting to leave rick santorum of PA in the dust... his lead is now out of the margin of error at 9%.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

update today http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...Ad=1&mod=blogs


Texas incumbent Bailey Hutchison lost almost 10 points in the polls in 1 month.

Missouri's incumbent Jim Talent still holds a slowly decreasing lead, but not by much.... polls are staying within the MOE.

Casey is starting to leave rick santorum of PA in the dust... his lead is now out of the margin of error at 9%.

I FRICKING HATE HOW ZOGBY COMPLETELY IGNORES MONTANA AND RHODE ISLAND

christ man

anyway, this should be enough new info to do a huge update

gimme a sec

[Thorgrim]

Hey guys, I just re-edited the whole god damn thing because the OT version stuck black to the text which made it unreadable in the Dark Template

Anyway, old guys who recognize this, check out the new info and comment if applicable, newer people this is a good wrap up, enjoy the whole thread

Anyone with some spare time, I could use someone to go through the whole thread and look for editing mistakes/anomalies

[Thorgrim]

I'll put this in later, but for now: July 31, 2006 Three Rasmussen Polls

WASHINGTON STATE:
On the heels of her campaign’s first statewide television ad campaign, Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell’s poll numbers have improved for the first time in months. Cantwell now leads challenger Mike McGavick (R) by 11 percentage points, 48% to 37%.

MISSOURI:
Missouri State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) has moved ahead of Senator Jim Talent (R) in the latest Rasmussen Reports election survey to lead the incumbent 45% to 42% (see crosstabs). The candidates were tied at 42% in our survey last month.

While a 3-point lead for the challenger is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error, it is a concern for any incumbent to be so far below the 50% level of support at this point in the campaign.

OHIO:
Brown (D) leads DeWine (R) By 2 points now, 44-42, he has been leading in other polls but this is a 9 point upswing for him.

[Thorgrim]

Our latest numbers from Minnesota (Klobuchar +12), Washington (Cantwell +11), and New Jersey (Menendez +6) provide Democrats with breathing room in the three Senate races deemed by the conventional wisdom and polling data as the GOP's best pick-up opportunities of the cycle. In all three cases, polls earlier in the year gave Republicans hope but the trends are moving against them. With all the usual cavaets about a long time until Election Day, it is now hard to see the Republicans picking up any Democratic Senate seats.

When we look at seats the Democrats hope to pick up, it becomes even more clear that the summer months have not been kind to Republicans. Early in the year, Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was the only Republican clearly in trouble. Now he is joined by a growing list of vulnerable colleagues, four of whom trail their Democratic challenger (Burns in Montana, Chafee in Rhode Island, DeWine in Ohio, and Talent in Missouri).

At the moment, it looks like the Ohio and Missouri races may be the ones to watch on Election Night. If they go to the Democrats, it will be a very long night in the White House. On the other hand, if DeWine and Talent can use the benefits of incumbency and other resources to stave off defeat, Democrats will once again be grousing about missed opportunities.

The big question mark, though, remains what might happen if Democrats can win the five states where they now lead. Is there another Senate seat they could pick up that might propel them to majority status? It's tough to say where else the Democrats might be favored, but our most recent polling in Nevada shows that a surprise may be possible if the trends continue in the current direction. Senator Ensign (R) is ahead in Nevada, but only by 7 points... and he only earns 46% of the vote at this time.

-Rasmussen Reports Premium Section

[Thorgrim]

A few days late, but Bob Corker, a moderate GOPer won the primary against 2 conservatives and will face Ford (D)

It's considered his worst possible opponent and so despite great news across the front of an expected 5 seat pickup...the 6th seat is looking harder than ever...supposedly before the primary bump Ford is already down 13 points

Carter, who was seen as a lost cause just a month ago (down 20 pts in Rasmussen), now seems the Democrats greatest hope

46% Ensign
39% Carter

Only 7 points and its not even Labor Day

Webb in VA and Penderson in AZ both have seen negative trends and dwindling money, Webb is basically broke while Allen is the richest incumbent of CoH

However, come October, if the Dems certain numbers hold steady, they can dump all their resources into 2 out of these 4 races and hope one out of 4 wins

[Thorgrim]

Everything is so volatile right now...the Lamont victory...the new british-thwar