If leaving Iraq will leave it worse, why do 71% of Iraqis want us gone?

SpicyMcVoodoo · 12-05-2006, 04:14 PM

YouTube - Why 71% Iraqis Want U.S. Out!

I saw this which says 71% of Iraqis want US troops gone. Why? It seems to be commonly thought in the US that if we leave, it'll get worse for Iraqis, like we're betraying them if we leave. On the other hand, they're actually saying they want us gone. So it would appear there's, once again, a pretty big disconnect between reality and a large chunk of American opinion.

So to those who think we should stay because it'll get worse if we go, I ask you, what do you know that 71% of Iraqis don't? And if 71% of Iraqis are wrong, what could they possibly be thinking?

Diesel66 · 12-05-2006, 06:49 PM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

So to those who think we should stay because it'll get worse if we go, I ask you, what do you know that 71% of Iraqis don't? And if 71% of Iraqis are wrong, what could they possibly be thinking?

Since when is mob rule a good way to make an important decision ?

Diamond Cross · 12-05-2006, 06:56 PM

One possibility is that they're reacting out of fear of retaliation by the groups who don't want American troops there.

Thorgrim · 12-05-2006, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by Diesel66

Since when is mob rule a good way to make an important decision ?

Electing Congress?

Diesel66 · 12-05-2006, 07:56 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Electing Congress?

Nation is broke down into districts and the people have no direct vote. How is this mob rule ?

Want to see the failure of democracy ? Look at CA. We keep passing new spending bills but then remove the ability to pay for anything unless the tax will only go after a minority group

SpicyMcVoodoo · 12-05-2006, 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by Diesel66

Since when is mob rule a good way to make an important decision ?

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing because most Iraqis want something, that's the best option. I'm asking WHY most Iraqis think one way, while so many Americans think another way.

When it comes to what will happen if American troops leave, you'd think the poor sap living in Baghdad would have a better idea than some armchair quarterback in the States. So if you're going to disregard the opinion of those who are actually in the area, I'd like to know why.

What do you know that they don't? Where is the error in their thinking? Why do they think US forces leaving will be better, while so many Americans think it will be worse? Something is seriously not adding up.

Supposedly if Americans leave, Iraq will turn into a blood bath. Well, if that's true, since most Iraqis do want America to leave, either Iraqis are too stupid to see the obvious or they want a blood bath. Which is it? Frankly, I don't see either option as being likely, but according to the American rationale, one must be true. Please explain.

RMNIXON · 12-05-2006, 11:39 PM

Originally Posted by Diesel66

Since when is mob rule a good way to make an important decision ?

They did a survey of 2000 people! Not much of a mob.

Check the links on the Thorgrim post:

95% of Iraqis felt safer under Saddam, 90% feel US forces make them less safe

SpicyMcVoodoo · 12-05-2006, 11:41 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

They did a survey of 2000 people! Not much of a mob.

Check the links on the Thorgrim post:

95% of Iraqis felt safer under Saddam, 90% feel US forces make them less safe

you sure that's the same survey? and if so, are you sure 2000 isn't statistically significant?

RMNIXON · 12-05-2006, 11:50 PM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

you sure that's the same survey? and if so, are you sure 2000 isn't statistically significant?

I would certainly want to know who was surveyed and where?

It appears to be the same since they support the same number and your YOUTUBE is a CNN report, but I don't know for sure.

SpicyMcVoodoo · 12-05-2006, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I would certainly want to know who was surveyed and where?

It appears to be the same since they support the same number and your YOUTUBE is a CNN report, but I don't know for sure.

I kind of take it that there's a presumption of legitimacy when a poll is reported on a major network like CNN. No one's beyond making mistakes, but CNN wouldn't have the success it has if they went around publishing half assed polls that were obviously statistically insignificant.

Diamond Cross · 12-06-2006, 01:45 AM

but in a area like Iraq they could've polled say 2,000 Sunnis, and the Sunnis don't want America here.

Kytro · 12-06-2006, 01:54 AM

Without opinion polls it's going to be hard to get a good indication of what people might be thinking.

One speculation:

People observe that conflict causes suffering and hence believe the withdrawl of US troops will decrease suffering.

This is probably right, though the overall outcome may be undesirable, less people will probably but hurt / killed unless one faction cannot voercome the others.

7960 · 12-06-2006, 10:36 AM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

I kind of take it that there's a presumption of legitimacy when a poll is reported on a major network like CNN.

Oh, that's rich. They post opinion polls all the time that consist of nothing more than asking a few hundred people or putting a poll on a website and then reporting the results. Both of those are awful measures for anything. Put a poll on a website and you're going to get the 12-28 year old male opinion, NOT indicative of any actual consensus.

I can't watch the video now so don't know if these points were addressed

-I want to know who were those 2,000 people?
-Did they travel around the country or just poll people in one city?
-Did they make phone calls?
-Did they ask groups of people at a time?

There are so many ways they could have fucked this up that it's more likely that it is fucked up than isn't.

Emfuser · 12-06-2006, 11:41 AM

While we've gotten ourselves in quite the quagmire in Iraq, it does not seem sensible at all to believe that Iraq will suddenly become peaceful and quiet if the US abruptly withdrew.

The fucked up thing we've discovered being in Iraq is that the people do indeed want freedom... the freedom to return to nursing generations old grudges and tribal or religious warfare trying to conquer and subdue each other.

Donkey® · 12-06-2006, 02:08 PM

A poll is a poll is a poll is a poll. I wouldn't put any trust in any of them. But if you think about it logically, I wonder how people can say that a majority of the Iraqi people DON'T want us out?

SpicyMcVoodoo · 12-06-2006, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by 7960

Oh, that's rich. They post opinion polls all the time that consist of nothing more than asking a few hundred people or putting a poll on a website and then reporting the results. Both of those are awful measures for anything. Put a poll on a website and you're going to get the 12-28 year old male opinion, NOT indicative of any actual consensus.

I can't watch the video now so don't know if these points were addressed

-I want to know who were those 2,000 people?
-Did they travel around the country or just poll people in one city?
-Did they make phone calls?
-Did they ask groups of people at a time?

There are so many ways they could have fucked this up that it's more likely that it is fucked up than isn't.

Here's the study from the group that conducted it. The 71% figure is on pg 6.

http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Ir..._Jan06_rpt.pdf

Here are the details:

There were, however, variations along ethnic lines. Sunnis are the most unified, with 83% wanting US forces to leave within 6 months. Seventy-one percent of Shia agree on having a timeline, but divide between 22% who favor withdrawal in six months and 49% who favor two years. Among the Kurds, on the other hand, a majority of 57% favors reducing US-led forces only when the situation improves.

Okay, it's obvious the Sunnis want us gone and the Kurds don't want us to leave. But the question is the Shia. Why do 71% of Shia favor having a timeline? Why don't they think like the Kurds and have a majority wanting US forces to leave only when the situation improves? And furthermore, while only 22% of Shia want the US gone in 6 months, 49% want the US gone within two years. Why? I don't think anyone thinks this conflict will be over in 2 years. So why do almost half of the Shia want the US soliders out in 2 years?

Granted, CNN's representation of the poll was simplistic, but there are still questions it raises. 71% of Shia want the US gone in 2 years or less. Why? If it'll turn into a bloodbath when we leave, they'd agree with the Kurds and want us to stay indefinitely. And even with the Kurds, why do only 57% want Americans to stay until the situation improves? What do they have to lose by Americans staying? You'd think it would be near 100% of the Kurds.

The poll was fielded by KA Research Limited/D3 Systems, Inc. Polling was conducted January 2-5 with a nationwide sample of 1,150, which included an oversample of 150 Arab Sunnis (bringing the total of Sunnis to 421). Respondents from all of Iraq’s 18 governorates were interviewed for the sample.

RMNIXON · 12-06-2006, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by Emfuser

While we've gotten ourselves in quite the quagmire in Iraq, it does not seem sensible at all to believe that Iraq will suddenly become peaceful and quiet if the US abruptly withdrew.

The fucked up thing we've discovered being in Iraq is that the people do indeed want freedom... the freedom to return to nursing generations old grudges and tribal or religious warfare trying to conquer and subdue each other.

An unfortunate yes on both!

Diesel66 · 12-06-2006, 08:04 PM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

You're missing the point. I'm not arguing because most Iraqis want something, that's the best option. I'm asking WHY most Iraqis think one way, while so many Americans think another way.

When it comes to what will happen if American troops leave, you'd think the poor sap living in Baghdad would have a better idea than some armchair quarterback in the States. So if you're going to disregard the opinion of those who are actually in the area, I'd like to know why.

if another nation had their army in my city I would want them gone too. Just because they are big targets, accidents etc...

Doesnt make it a smart decision though.

7960 · 12-06-2006, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Ir..._Jan06_rpt.pdf

Here are the details:

I'll read this later, thanks

Okay, it's obvious the Sunnis want us gone and the Kurds don't want us to leave. But the question is the Shia. Why do 71% of Shia favor having a timeline?

Because they see some kind of advantage in our leaving. They want to take over or to keep whatever they have. The longer we're there the less likely they'll get what they want.