candidates
Submitted by JaJae on 27 March, 2008 - 20:41.
Before I start this thread I want to make it perfectly clear that I personally don't think a candidate should drop out until they are ready to do so. I don't care who it is, Hillary, Paul or any other politician. I do, however, feel that the candidates should utilize the best judgment for themselves, their party and the nation when they are running for political office. That final judgment call should be made by the politician.
I started thinking about this about a week or so ago when I heard a Clinton staffer told Politico that Hillary's odds of winning the primary is no more than 10%. Since then Obama has rebounded pretty well from Wright. Therefore, I personally agree with David Brook's estimate of roughly 5%. Looking at the numbers I would say 5% is a fair estimation of Hillary's chances. Her own campaign put her at under 10 when Obama was at his worst. So I think 5% is probably fair now that he's rebounded. For argument's sake and to be fair to Hillary supporters, I'm willing to use her own campaign's estimate of 10%.
So now the question comes into play, is this 10% chance of a Hillary victory worth taking? I believe it's the common consensus that if Hillary wins the primary, the Democratic party would be in disarray. So even if she wins the primary, she'll be hurt for the national election. And if she loses the primary it would be all for nothing and she would severely hurt Obama's chances of winning the national election, thus greatly increasing the chances of McCain entering the White House. He has already started to pull upwards of double digit leads over Hillary and Obama.
I think it's important to discuss the math here behind the Democratic primary in order to put into perspective Hillary's chances of winning. The most important factor going into the convention is going to be the total number of delegates. So we'll start there. As of right now Obama has a sizable lead and pundits from both parties admit it would take a huge blow to Obama's campaign to be multiples worse than Wright in order for Hillary to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates. Hillary knows this, she understands she won't finish with the delegate lead. In fact, in my opinion if Hillary doesn't pull a 30+ point victory in PA, she has essentially zero chance of taking the lead in pledged delegates. PA is her best bet to gain delegates and she needs a blowout beyond anything we've seen in this campaign so far.
Obama is likely to take North Carolina which is the second largest state up for grabs. Let's assume for a minute that Obama and Hillary break even in North Carolina, which would be a feat for Hillary so I'm throwing her a huge bone here. But, let's assume for a second that Hillary won't have to make up any delegates from a loss in North Carolina and let's also assume she beats Obama in every other primary up for grabs by 40 points. The numbers look like this:
If she wins by 40 points in every other contest, save for North Carolina that Obama will likely win, she needs 26 points in PA to overtake Obama's lead. Those results are obviously not likely at all, which is why I'm saying she needs bare minimum 30 points in PA to have a prayer at winning even if Obama is caught with a dead underage hooker in his trunk.
The second major argument she can take with her to the convention is the popular vote argument. However, without Florida and Michigan revotes her odds of winning the popular vote over Obama are about as good as her overtaking him in pledged delegates.
Without these two major factors in her favor to sway the super delegates she is focusing on the same two lesser arguments to take with her at to the convention that she has been using for the past few weeks. Big states and ability to win. These arguments have netted her a roughly 60 super delegate loss since she started using them. And the common consensus among super delegate voters is to vote the way their states/constituents vote. The super delegate argument seems to have failed her and now she's moving on to another argument...
She is making the claim that the currently pledged delegates decided by the voters should disenfranchise the Democratic system and change their votes in her favor. She claims she is not advocating for it, but she keeps running to the media and throwing the idea out there as if to be a desperate plea from a dying campaign. Since then nobody has bit.
So essentially, in my opinion, Hillary's chances of winning the primary are over. By all accounts that I can see, she has been defeated. By her own campaign's account, her chances of winning are less than 10%. And again, that's from her campaign who is likely a bit too optimistic as we have seen.
So we eventually come back to the initial question, at what point should a candidate drop out? I think it would be honorable of Hillary to drop out, but I am not going to specifically call for her withdrawal. Instead, I am going to bring light to the reality of her situation and request that she run a clean campaign. Her chances of winning are finished. Her time is over. She should not make her campaign's destruction the destruction of the party. I am not saying she shouldn't campaign on the trail and garnish support, but I am saying she should stop the divisiveness and stop the dirty politics. And who knows, perhaps if she had done this sooner she would be in an entirely different situation right now.
I started thinking about this about a week or so ago when I heard a Clinton staffer told Politico that Hillary's odds of winning the primary is no more than 10%. Since then Obama has rebounded pretty well from Wright. Therefore, I personally agree with David Brook's estimate of roughly 5%. Looking at the numbers I would say 5% is a fair estimation of Hillary's chances. Her own campaign put her at under 10 when Obama was at his worst. So I think 5% is probably fair now that he's rebounded. For argument's sake and to be fair to Hillary supporters, I'm willing to use her own campaign's estimate of 10%.
So now the question comes into play, is this 10% chance of a Hillary victory worth taking? I believe it's the common consensus that if Hillary wins the primary, the Democratic party would be in disarray. So even if she wins the primary, she'll be hurt for the national election. And if she loses the primary it would be all for nothing and she would severely hurt Obama's chances of winning the national election, thus greatly increasing the chances of McCain entering the White House. He has already started to pull upwards of double digit leads over Hillary and Obama.
I think it's important to discuss the math here behind the Democratic primary in order to put into perspective Hillary's chances of winning. The most important factor going into the convention is going to be the total number of delegates. So we'll start there. As of right now Obama has a sizable lead and pundits from both parties admit it would take a huge blow to Obama's campaign to be multiples worse than Wright in order for Hillary to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates. Hillary knows this, she understands she won't finish with the delegate lead. In fact, in my opinion if Hillary doesn't pull a 30+ point victory in PA, she has essentially zero chance of taking the lead in pledged delegates. PA is her best bet to gain delegates and she needs a blowout beyond anything we've seen in this campaign so far.
Obama is likely to take North Carolina which is the second largest state up for grabs. Let's assume for a minute that Obama and Hillary break even in North Carolina, which would be a feat for Hillary so I'm throwing her a huge bone here. But, let's assume for a second that Hillary won't have to make up any delegates from a loss in North Carolina and let's also assume she beats Obama in every other primary up for grabs by 40 points. The numbers look like this:
If she wins by 40 points in every other contest, save for North Carolina that Obama will likely win, she needs 26 points in PA to overtake Obama's lead. Those results are obviously not likely at all, which is why I'm saying she needs bare minimum 30 points in PA to have a prayer at winning even if Obama is caught with a dead underage hooker in his trunk.
The second major argument she can take with her to the convention is the popular vote argument. However, without Florida and Michigan revotes her odds of winning the popular vote over Obama are about as good as her overtaking him in pledged delegates.
Without these two major factors in her favor to sway the super delegates she is focusing on the same two lesser arguments to take with her at to the convention that she has been using for the past few weeks. Big states and ability to win. These arguments have netted her a roughly 60 super delegate loss since she started using them. And the common consensus among super delegate voters is to vote the way their states/constituents vote. The super delegate argument seems to have failed her and now she's moving on to another argument...
She is making the claim that the currently pledged delegates decided by the voters should disenfranchise the Democratic system and change their votes in her favor. She claims she is not advocating for it, but she keeps running to the media and throwing the idea out there as if to be a desperate plea from a dying campaign. Since then nobody has bit.
Originally Posted by Hillary Clinton
In this one quote of many she is saying that "pledged" delegates are not pledged. Seems like an oxymoron, but she is correct. Technically these pledged delegates through the Democratic system could defect, but the odds of this happening are about as good as Obama being caught with a dead underage hooker in his trunk."I just don't think this is over yet," she said, "and I don't think that it is smart for us to take a position that might disadvantage us in November. And also remember that pledged delegates in most states are not pledged. You know, there is no requirement that anybody vote for anybody. They're just like superdelegates."
So essentially, in my opinion, Hillary's chances of winning the primary are over. By all accounts that I can see, she has been defeated. By her own campaign's account, her chances of winning are less than 10%. And again, that's from her campaign who is likely a bit too optimistic as we have seen.
So we eventually come back to the initial question, at what point should a candidate drop out? I think it would be honorable of Hillary to drop out, but I am not going to specifically call for her withdrawal. Instead, I am going to bring light to the reality of her situation and request that she run a clean campaign. Her chances of winning are finished. Her time is over. She should not make her campaign's destruction the destruction of the party. I am not saying she shouldn't campaign on the trail and garnish support, but I am saying she should stop the divisiveness and stop the dirty politics. And who knows, perhaps if she had done this sooner she would be in an entirely different situation right now.
