Submitted by Thorgrim on 16 March, 2008 - 02:21.
MOST RECENT UPDATE: APRIL 2008
"Red States" and Republican Seats/Candidates are in this Red when titled or cited in polls (Light Red means the Republican incumbent is not seeking re-election and it is an open seat, Dark Red means due to retirement/death/etc, both Republican seats in that state are up for election)
"Blue States" and Democratic Seats/Candidates are in this Blue when titled or cited in polls
To Discuss the Senate elections happening this year (2008), please comment:
2008 Senate Election Thread Discussion
Races are sorted by those most likely to switch from one party to another
Here is a map of the Senate seats up for election in 2008
Likely Takeover
These races actually favor the challenging party to win, and it would take something significant to make the races competitive
(Ex: 2004 when Obama was up big against Alan Keyes who was trying to protect a Republican US Senate Seat in Illinois)
#1
[Open] - Virginia
Background: Virginia is trending Blue....two popular Democratic governors in a row, Democrats made pickups in the state house, and obviously the huge Jim Webb (D) Senate win
John Warner has announced he will not run for re-election, so this seat is open
Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is running
Mark Warner did 2 amazing things:
1) He ran as a Democrat weeks after 9/11, against Bush's GOP candidate...and won the governors mansion in Nov 2001...for a Democrat to win in that environment...he has amazing campaign skills in Virginia
2) He left the job with 80% approval, and is the most popular politician in Virginia
This is why this is the #1 race, and most political analysts have this as "leans Democratic" even though it's an open GOP seat...(Remember these races are not ranked by how close or competitive they are...but how likely they are to switch parties)
Virginia, barring a political collapse, will elect Mark Warner by a large margin
All the polls had him up by huge margins, and the latest 2008 poll has him up 20 points against likely Republican candidate, Jim Gilmore
Mark Warner 57%
Jim Gilmore 37%
Rasmussen Reports
Mark Warner can self-finance the entire race
Leans Takeover
These seats appear likely to be won by the opposing party if the election were held today
#2
[Open] - New Mexico
Background: New Mexico is generally a blue state, with it's own flavor of southwestern politics. This election it may go completely blue, with Democrats controlling both Senate seats, all Congressional Districts and Bill Richardson will be the governor until 2010, where Denish (D) is favored to win and continue his line of popularity.
Race: Pete Domenici retired, and very popular Democratic Rep. Tom Udall is going for the open seat. Udall is more popular than his cousin in Colorado, and New Mexico was a blue state in 2000, barely red in 2004...Normally one would call this state purple, but Democrats dominate on the local level. Opposing him are the other two New Mexico Representatives, Rep. Heather Wilson (R) and Rep. Steve Pearce (R), battling it out in a primary
February 11th, 2008
Tom Udall 53%
Heather Wilson 31%
Tom Udall 58%
Steve Pearce 30%
CQ Politics | Democrat Udall Running Strong in New Mexico Senate Race
#3
John Sununu (R) Incumbent - New Hampshire
Background:
New Hampshire has moved blue very fast and very strongly, replacing it's two Republican Representatives to Congress with progressive Democrats. Also, Democrats captured both state houses for the first time since 1874. They also have a very popular Democratic Governor.
Also, the 2002 Senate Race was controversial as the reports are still not in on a possible "phone-jamming scam" where someone, supposedly the RNC or Sununu's campaign, flooded the Democratic challenger's phone lines so they could not communicate with each other...which is ofcourse a gross violation of the law. Regardless, Sununu, despite 2002 being a huge republican year, having the full backing of moderate and conservative Republicans, in a then red & rather libertarian state, and having a great family name...only won by four points.
Sen. Sununu has been more indepedent than most Republicans, but has sided with issues on Iraq, no right to habeas corpus and drilling in ANWR...all extremely unpopular in New England
The Race:
Sununu is in the worst shape of any incumbent, he has approval ratings in the 40s, and polling results have been dismal.
Former Gov and 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen (D) will run...in the past she has said she was unlikely to run, and she's a good campaigner, it is seems unlikely Sen. Sununu would be able to turn the tables.
But two good notes for the Democrats and one for the Republicans. The Iraq War has been less important to voters, which is the usual motivator for going after Sununu...with economics being the front issue, Sununu can stick to his libertarian leanings and still hold onto a solid base. However, the Democrats had a big advantage in the primaries, this 2000 Red State had more Democrats turn out by a large margin, and even better for Shaheen, this and the Hillary win was credited to Shaheen's political organization.
February 11th, 2008
Jeanne Shaheen 54%
John Sununu 37%
Granite State Poll
Toss-Up
These races, as a toss-up, very slightly favor the challenger, but in an open seat are a pure toss-up
#4
[Open] - Colorado
Background:
Colorado is the epitome of the phrase "trending blue", for the first time in forty years the Democrats now control both state houses, and they won the gubernatorial election. On the federal level, in the past two elections they have gone from sending 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats to Congress to 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans, and it widely considered that it can go 6-1 if they field strong challengers (Tancredo's district is too deep red), and from 2 Republican Senators now one is Democrat and the other is retiring.
At the end of the this long blue trend was Wayne Allard, a Republican was recently rated one of the worst five Senators in America by Time Magazine, state publications wrote stories about how poorly he performed as a Senator. With a low approval rating, supposedly terrible re-election in-house polls, he decided to take up his pledge to only serve two terms.
Colorado is going to be the home of the 2008 Democratic convention, and any Democrat is going to try and win it's electoral votes as it's one possible path to get around Ohio and probably easier to win. A state getting bluer and bluer is going to be a hot spot for Democratic campaigners more than ever.
The Race:
From the above, it would be accurate to label the state as likely to go to the Democrat.
This assumption became reality when you see long-term moderate Rep. Mark Udall running unopposed for the nomination, he has $2 million in the bank already and his family name is well-respected in Colorado.
For the GOP, former Rep. Bob Schaffer seems to be the only one running at this point, and it should be noted he lost the 2004 primary to Pete Coors, and is not seen a strong candidate. However, Udall is more progressive than the average voter from Colorado, and the Republicans still have a 100,000 registration advantage. In the end, the strength of Udall and the trends in Colorado seem to favor the race, but Schaffer has not fallen apart and Udall has not come across as strong as his strengths should seem to give him.
However, polling has remained tied when many expected Udall to start pulling away with the race.
This may change now, as the first personal issue of the campaign, a GOP-Bob Schaffer connection to Abramoff, has been brewing in the press
Overall, this race will depend on how the summer in Colorado goes, and what kind of coat tails the presidential race brings.
February 11th, 2008
Bob Schaffer 44%
Mark Udall 43%
Rasmussen Reports
#5
Norm Coleman (R) Incumbent - Minnesota
Background:
The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is the Minnesota brand for the Democratic Party, they control the state house and senate. Minnesota is a very indepedent state and can be very populist...it elected Ventura as a reform-independent Governor, but despite being a blue state, it has a mixed history that matches its indepedent nature. In 2002 it appeared they were about to re-elect Paul Wellstone before his death in a plane crash, the most liberal Democratic Senator probably to ever serve in the US Senate. His death had a controversial funeral which some voters viewed as tasteless and other voters viewed as keeping with the family's wishes, that combined with a 11th hour announcement that a very old Mondale would now be the candidate, and the 2002 GOP Wave, elected Norm Coleman. Also, in the 2006 very Democratic year, they narrowly re-elected a moderate Republican. In that same year, an open senate seat saw now Sen. Amy Klobuchar beat who the GOP called their best candidate of the year by over 20 points, with no controversy.
The Race:
Norm Coleman has become one of the most hated figures of Minnesota Democrats, but moderates have kept an open eye as he has approval in the 40s but not basement levels like Bush has in the 20s. If a strong Democratic challenger can get simply 200,000 voters of the 400,000 victory-margin Sen. Klobuchar recieved last year, they should be able to pull it off, but there are problems, the only two set candidates (and no others in cite) are Al Franken and a self-financing trial lawyer. Franken has pulled in over $2 million already, and certainly in a state like MN which has elected Ventura, he has the best chance in his home state, but will voters really elect an activist from Saturay Night Live fame?
Right now Al Franken has had a statistically insignificant lead in several polls, but polls usually break late in Minnesota so it's not nearly as bad for Norm Coleman as it is for John Sununu
February 19th, 2008
Al Franken 49%
Norm Coleman 46%
Rasmussen Reports
#6
Ted Stevens (R) Incumbent - Alaska
Background: Ted Stevens is an Alaskan legend, his ability to pull in ridiculous amounts of Pork rivals all but Sen. Byrd. As Alaska is also naturally Republican, he has cruised to every re-election. His temper and other characteristics are largely ignored because of his abilities to help his state.
However, recent FBI investigations have been continuing and severely hurt his image, and popular Anchorage mayor Mark Begich looks certain to challenge him.
On the other hand, he can retire at any moment, in which case the GOP could put forward a popular Republican like Governor Palin, or the investigations could run out of steam.
Every poll (Approx 3) that has come out has shown Stevens losing or with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead, and all under 50%, that's the big danger sign, and makes it a Toss-up, no really knows what is going to happen in Alaska
Slight Incumbent Advantage
The incumbent has a slight advantage
#7
Mary Landrieu (D) Incumbent - Louisiana
Background:
Mary Landrieu won as a moderate Democrat in a 2002 GOP year, and she has kept up to her end of the bargain, unfortunately politics has become much more partisan, and Hurricane Katrina has caused many Democratic voters to leave New Orleans and the surronding area for other states, leaving rural Republicans with a big advantage.
The Race:
John Kennedy (R) is the challenger. With a warchest in the millions and growing, Sen. Landrieu is prepared to fight a major battle to retain her seat, but the political environment is poor enough for her in LA despite her relative popularity, she must be considered to be set for a competitive race.
Latest Rasmussen poll shows her up 16pts, and in fact every poll has shown her with a lead, she seems a lot safer today than she did a few months ago.
#8
Gordon Smith (R) Incumbent - Oregon
Background:
Oregon is a very progressive state, so people initially felt this race would mirror Minnesota, but:
Gordon Smith is more popular than Norm Coleman, and has consistently turned against Bush on Iraq War votes
The most popular state Democrats have declined to run
The Race:
Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley is officiallly in as the Democratic front-runner, and is facing a primary against only Steve Novick.
Polls earlier had shown this to be a 6 point race, but Rasmussen is reporting it as a double digit race in Smith's advantage. Nevertheless, Sen. Smith has not been able to break 50%, and being under that number is the universal signal that an incumbent is in trouble.
Clear Incumbent Advantage
This is still a race, however the incumbent has a clear advantage and something significant would have to happen in order to make it a toss-up or better for the challenger
#9
Susan Collins (R) Incumbent - Maine
Background: Maine had already been a blue state back in 2000, Democrats control the State House, Senate and Governor's mansion. However they have the "two sisters" Snowe and Collins, who are moderate Republican women who are widely popular. However, Snowe has always been considered the powerful Senator from Maine, and Snowe is frequently listed as one of the top 10 Senators by TIME. Standing somewhat in Snowe's shadow, Collins has done well by basically following the lead of Snowe and staying moderate in this blue state.
Such an attitude had Lincoln Chaffee in high regards in Rhode Island, but then that went way down and he was booted. Two huge facts that help the GOP: Maine isn't nearly as blue as Rhode Island, and Collin's approval has not taken the nose dive that Chaffee's has...
However, she has gone down to the 60s and without recent numbers she might be lower (or higher), despite Snowe getting around 80s in approval
The Race: The DSCC has targeted her several times with light buys of television ads, and the results are unknown at this point.
Despite the fact that the very popular Rep. Tom Allen is running against Sen. Collins, her lead has continued to be huge, but Tom Allen has the support and money to run a good race, things could change, or they could not.
Latest polls from last year show a 20 point lead by Sen. Collins
#10
Roger Wicker (R) - Mississippi
Background: Trent Lott retired to become a lobbyist, but did so in a way that allowed John Wicker to be appointed, however he is only going to have a few months of incumbency and this is as close to an open race as one can get.
Race: Former Governor Musgrove is running, and he is a somewhat popular, and very conservative, figure in Mississippi, but he is a Democrat in a very red state.
#11
John Cornyn (R) - Texas
Background: He has approval ratings in the 40s in Texas as a Republican, that's never good
Race: The challenger, Texas State Rep. Rick Noriega is an Afghanistan War Veteran, right now as a challenger he can not get it closer than a double digit race (around 16pts) or get Sen. Cornyn below 50%
This could change if Rep. Noriega got more state wide attention (and funding) and if this race somehow becomes a stretch battleground state for the Democrats
#12
Elizabeth Dole (R) - North Carolina
Background: More unpopular than John Cornyn, and in less red of a state
Race: No one seems to be paying much attention to this race, and people, while not being in love with Sen. Dole, are not anxious to throw her out either.
She has a 20% lead against her most likely opponent, State Senator Kay Hagan. But presidential politics may alter this race.
#13
Mitch McConnel (R) - Kentucky
Background: Kentucky is about to overwhelming throw out what appears to the state to be a corrupt Republican Governor, they may turn on McConnel next as he is not as popular as you would expect a Majority Leader to be
Race: Former Gubernatorial Candidate Bruce Lunsford seems most likely to face him, but no polling has been done.
#14
[Open] - Nebraska
Background: Chuck Hagel decided to retire and popular former governor Mike Johanns has taken up to defend the GOP seat, and will likely face Scott Kleeb, who picked up a very impressive 45% in Nebraska's most conservative district in 2006.
Race: Very old polls show a 30% lead by Gov. Johanns, this is a longshot which depends largely on Kleeb's state-wide campaign abilities and presidential situations
Currently Non-Competitive Senate Seats
This is a list, in a basic order (although this far down it is hard to sort) of candidates that could lose their seat, if they have a George Allen scenario, that being a bumbling campaign with a huge gaffe that people really pay attention to, and then an unlikely challenger comes out of nowhere and really hits it off, and even then, barely wins...basically a minor miracle would be needed...
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus
South Carolina - Lyndsey Graham
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Wyoming - (Appointed)
Idaho - Larry Craig
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Completely Safe (No Order)
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Delaware - Joe Biden
Illinois - Dick Durbin
Massachusetts - John Kerry
Michigan - Carl Levin
Rhode Island - Jack Reed
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller
"Red States" and Republican Seats/Candidates are in this Red when titled or cited in polls (Light Red means the Republican incumbent is not seeking re-election and it is an open seat, Dark Red means due to retirement/death/etc, both Republican seats in that state are up for election)
"Blue States" and Democratic Seats/Candidates are in this Blue when titled or cited in polls
To Discuss the Senate elections happening this year (2008), please comment:
2008 Senate Election Thread Discussion
Races are sorted by those most likely to switch from one party to another
Here is a map of the Senate seats up for election in 2008
Likely Takeover
These races actually favor the challenging party to win, and it would take something significant to make the races competitive
(Ex: 2004 when Obama was up big against Alan Keyes who was trying to protect a Republican US Senate Seat in Illinois)
#1
[Open] - Virginia
Background: Virginia is trending Blue....two popular Democratic governors in a row, Democrats made pickups in the state house, and obviously the huge Jim Webb (D) Senate win
John Warner has announced he will not run for re-election, so this seat is open
Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is running
Mark Warner did 2 amazing things:
1) He ran as a Democrat weeks after 9/11, against Bush's GOP candidate...and won the governors mansion in Nov 2001...for a Democrat to win in that environment...he has amazing campaign skills in Virginia
2) He left the job with 80% approval, and is the most popular politician in Virginia
This is why this is the #1 race, and most political analysts have this as "leans Democratic" even though it's an open GOP seat...(Remember these races are not ranked by how close or competitive they are...but how likely they are to switch parties)
Virginia, barring a political collapse, will elect Mark Warner by a large margin
All the polls had him up by huge margins, and the latest 2008 poll has him up 20 points against likely Republican candidate, Jim Gilmore
Mark Warner 57%
Jim Gilmore 37%
Rasmussen Reports
Mark Warner can self-finance the entire race
Leans Takeover
These seats appear likely to be won by the opposing party if the election were held today
#2
[Open] - New Mexico
Background: New Mexico is generally a blue state, with it's own flavor of southwestern politics. This election it may go completely blue, with Democrats controlling both Senate seats, all Congressional Districts and Bill Richardson will be the governor until 2010, where Denish (D) is favored to win and continue his line of popularity.
Race: Pete Domenici retired, and very popular Democratic Rep. Tom Udall is going for the open seat. Udall is more popular than his cousin in Colorado, and New Mexico was a blue state in 2000, barely red in 2004...Normally one would call this state purple, but Democrats dominate on the local level. Opposing him are the other two New Mexico Representatives, Rep. Heather Wilson (R) and Rep. Steve Pearce (R), battling it out in a primary
February 11th, 2008
Tom Udall 53%
Heather Wilson 31%
Tom Udall 58%
Steve Pearce 30%
CQ Politics | Democrat Udall Running Strong in New Mexico Senate Race
#3
John Sununu (R) Incumbent - New Hampshire
Background:
New Hampshire has moved blue very fast and very strongly, replacing it's two Republican Representatives to Congress with progressive Democrats. Also, Democrats captured both state houses for the first time since 1874. They also have a very popular Democratic Governor.
Also, the 2002 Senate Race was controversial as the reports are still not in on a possible "phone-jamming scam" where someone, supposedly the RNC or Sununu's campaign, flooded the Democratic challenger's phone lines so they could not communicate with each other...which is ofcourse a gross violation of the law. Regardless, Sununu, despite 2002 being a huge republican year, having the full backing of moderate and conservative Republicans, in a then red & rather libertarian state, and having a great family name...only won by four points.
Sen. Sununu has been more indepedent than most Republicans, but has sided with issues on Iraq, no right to habeas corpus and drilling in ANWR...all extremely unpopular in New England
The Race:
Sununu is in the worst shape of any incumbent, he has approval ratings in the 40s, and polling results have been dismal.
Former Gov and 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen (D) will run...in the past she has said she was unlikely to run, and she's a good campaigner, it is seems unlikely Sen. Sununu would be able to turn the tables.
But two good notes for the Democrats and one for the Republicans. The Iraq War has been less important to voters, which is the usual motivator for going after Sununu...with economics being the front issue, Sununu can stick to his libertarian leanings and still hold onto a solid base. However, the Democrats had a big advantage in the primaries, this 2000 Red State had more Democrats turn out by a large margin, and even better for Shaheen, this and the Hillary win was credited to Shaheen's political organization.
February 11th, 2008
Jeanne Shaheen 54%
John Sununu 37%
Granite State Poll
Toss-Up
These races, as a toss-up, very slightly favor the challenger, but in an open seat are a pure toss-up
#4
[Open] - Colorado
Background:
Colorado is the epitome of the phrase "trending blue", for the first time in forty years the Democrats now control both state houses, and they won the gubernatorial election. On the federal level, in the past two elections they have gone from sending 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats to Congress to 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans, and it widely considered that it can go 6-1 if they field strong challengers (Tancredo's district is too deep red), and from 2 Republican Senators now one is Democrat and the other is retiring.
At the end of the this long blue trend was Wayne Allard, a Republican was recently rated one of the worst five Senators in America by Time Magazine, state publications wrote stories about how poorly he performed as a Senator. With a low approval rating, supposedly terrible re-election in-house polls, he decided to take up his pledge to only serve two terms.
Colorado is going to be the home of the 2008 Democratic convention, and any Democrat is going to try and win it's electoral votes as it's one possible path to get around Ohio and probably easier to win. A state getting bluer and bluer is going to be a hot spot for Democratic campaigners more than ever.
The Race:
From the above, it would be accurate to label the state as likely to go to the Democrat.
This assumption became reality when you see long-term moderate Rep. Mark Udall running unopposed for the nomination, he has $2 million in the bank already and his family name is well-respected in Colorado.
For the GOP, former Rep. Bob Schaffer seems to be the only one running at this point, and it should be noted he lost the 2004 primary to Pete Coors, and is not seen a strong candidate. However, Udall is more progressive than the average voter from Colorado, and the Republicans still have a 100,000 registration advantage. In the end, the strength of Udall and the trends in Colorado seem to favor the race, but Schaffer has not fallen apart and Udall has not come across as strong as his strengths should seem to give him.
However, polling has remained tied when many expected Udall to start pulling away with the race.
This may change now, as the first personal issue of the campaign, a GOP-Bob Schaffer connection to Abramoff, has been brewing in the press
Overall, this race will depend on how the summer in Colorado goes, and what kind of coat tails the presidential race brings.
February 11th, 2008
Bob Schaffer 44%
Mark Udall 43%
Rasmussen Reports
#5
Norm Coleman (R) Incumbent - Minnesota
Background:
The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is the Minnesota brand for the Democratic Party, they control the state house and senate. Minnesota is a very indepedent state and can be very populist...it elected Ventura as a reform-independent Governor, but despite being a blue state, it has a mixed history that matches its indepedent nature. In 2002 it appeared they were about to re-elect Paul Wellstone before his death in a plane crash, the most liberal Democratic Senator probably to ever serve in the US Senate. His death had a controversial funeral which some voters viewed as tasteless and other voters viewed as keeping with the family's wishes, that combined with a 11th hour announcement that a very old Mondale would now be the candidate, and the 2002 GOP Wave, elected Norm Coleman. Also, in the 2006 very Democratic year, they narrowly re-elected a moderate Republican. In that same year, an open senate seat saw now Sen. Amy Klobuchar beat who the GOP called their best candidate of the year by over 20 points, with no controversy.
The Race:
Norm Coleman has become one of the most hated figures of Minnesota Democrats, but moderates have kept an open eye as he has approval in the 40s but not basement levels like Bush has in the 20s. If a strong Democratic challenger can get simply 200,000 voters of the 400,000 victory-margin Sen. Klobuchar recieved last year, they should be able to pull it off, but there are problems, the only two set candidates (and no others in cite) are Al Franken and a self-financing trial lawyer. Franken has pulled in over $2 million already, and certainly in a state like MN which has elected Ventura, he has the best chance in his home state, but will voters really elect an activist from Saturay Night Live fame?
Right now Al Franken has had a statistically insignificant lead in several polls, but polls usually break late in Minnesota so it's not nearly as bad for Norm Coleman as it is for John Sununu
February 19th, 2008
Al Franken 49%
Norm Coleman 46%
Rasmussen Reports
#6
Ted Stevens (R) Incumbent - Alaska
Background: Ted Stevens is an Alaskan legend, his ability to pull in ridiculous amounts of Pork rivals all but Sen. Byrd. As Alaska is also naturally Republican, he has cruised to every re-election. His temper and other characteristics are largely ignored because of his abilities to help his state.
However, recent FBI investigations have been continuing and severely hurt his image, and popular Anchorage mayor Mark Begich looks certain to challenge him.
On the other hand, he can retire at any moment, in which case the GOP could put forward a popular Republican like Governor Palin, or the investigations could run out of steam.
Every poll (Approx 3) that has come out has shown Stevens losing or with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead, and all under 50%, that's the big danger sign, and makes it a Toss-up, no really knows what is going to happen in Alaska
Slight Incumbent Advantage
The incumbent has a slight advantage
#7
Mary Landrieu (D) Incumbent - Louisiana
Background:
Mary Landrieu won as a moderate Democrat in a 2002 GOP year, and she has kept up to her end of the bargain, unfortunately politics has become much more partisan, and Hurricane Katrina has caused many Democratic voters to leave New Orleans and the surronding area for other states, leaving rural Republicans with a big advantage.
The Race:
John Kennedy (R) is the challenger. With a warchest in the millions and growing, Sen. Landrieu is prepared to fight a major battle to retain her seat, but the political environment is poor enough for her in LA despite her relative popularity, she must be considered to be set for a competitive race.
Latest Rasmussen poll shows her up 16pts, and in fact every poll has shown her with a lead, she seems a lot safer today than she did a few months ago.
#8
Gordon Smith (R) Incumbent - Oregon
Background:
Oregon is a very progressive state, so people initially felt this race would mirror Minnesota, but:
Gordon Smith is more popular than Norm Coleman, and has consistently turned against Bush on Iraq War votes
The most popular state Democrats have declined to run
The Race:
Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley is officiallly in as the Democratic front-runner, and is facing a primary against only Steve Novick.
Polls earlier had shown this to be a 6 point race, but Rasmussen is reporting it as a double digit race in Smith's advantage. Nevertheless, Sen. Smith has not been able to break 50%, and being under that number is the universal signal that an incumbent is in trouble.
Clear Incumbent Advantage
This is still a race, however the incumbent has a clear advantage and something significant would have to happen in order to make it a toss-up or better for the challenger
#9
Susan Collins (R) Incumbent - Maine
Background: Maine had already been a blue state back in 2000, Democrats control the State House, Senate and Governor's mansion. However they have the "two sisters" Snowe and Collins, who are moderate Republican women who are widely popular. However, Snowe has always been considered the powerful Senator from Maine, and Snowe is frequently listed as one of the top 10 Senators by TIME. Standing somewhat in Snowe's shadow, Collins has done well by basically following the lead of Snowe and staying moderate in this blue state.
Such an attitude had Lincoln Chaffee in high regards in Rhode Island, but then that went way down and he was booted. Two huge facts that help the GOP: Maine isn't nearly as blue as Rhode Island, and Collin's approval has not taken the nose dive that Chaffee's has...
However, she has gone down to the 60s and without recent numbers she might be lower (or higher), despite Snowe getting around 80s in approval
The Race: The DSCC has targeted her several times with light buys of television ads, and the results are unknown at this point.
Despite the fact that the very popular Rep. Tom Allen is running against Sen. Collins, her lead has continued to be huge, but Tom Allen has the support and money to run a good race, things could change, or they could not.
Latest polls from last year show a 20 point lead by Sen. Collins
#10
Roger Wicker (R) - Mississippi
Background: Trent Lott retired to become a lobbyist, but did so in a way that allowed John Wicker to be appointed, however he is only going to have a few months of incumbency and this is as close to an open race as one can get.
Race: Former Governor Musgrove is running, and he is a somewhat popular, and very conservative, figure in Mississippi, but he is a Democrat in a very red state.
#11
John Cornyn (R) - Texas
Background: He has approval ratings in the 40s in Texas as a Republican, that's never good
Race: The challenger, Texas State Rep. Rick Noriega is an Afghanistan War Veteran, right now as a challenger he can not get it closer than a double digit race (around 16pts) or get Sen. Cornyn below 50%
This could change if Rep. Noriega got more state wide attention (and funding) and if this race somehow becomes a stretch battleground state for the Democrats
#12
Elizabeth Dole (R) - North Carolina
Background: More unpopular than John Cornyn, and in less red of a state
Race: No one seems to be paying much attention to this race, and people, while not being in love with Sen. Dole, are not anxious to throw her out either.
She has a 20% lead against her most likely opponent, State Senator Kay Hagan. But presidential politics may alter this race.
#13
Mitch McConnel (R) - Kentucky
Background: Kentucky is about to overwhelming throw out what appears to the state to be a corrupt Republican Governor, they may turn on McConnel next as he is not as popular as you would expect a Majority Leader to be
Race: Former Gubernatorial Candidate Bruce Lunsford seems most likely to face him, but no polling has been done.
#14
[Open] - Nebraska
Background: Chuck Hagel decided to retire and popular former governor Mike Johanns has taken up to defend the GOP seat, and will likely face Scott Kleeb, who picked up a very impressive 45% in Nebraska's most conservative district in 2006.
Race: Very old polls show a 30% lead by Gov. Johanns, this is a longshot which depends largely on Kleeb's state-wide campaign abilities and presidential situations
Currently Non-Competitive Senate Seats
This is a list, in a basic order (although this far down it is hard to sort) of candidates that could lose their seat, if they have a George Allen scenario, that being a bumbling campaign with a huge gaffe that people really pay attention to, and then an unlikely challenger comes out of nowhere and really hits it off, and even then, barely wins...basically a minor miracle would be needed...
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus
South Carolina - Lyndsey Graham
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Wyoming - (Appointed)
Idaho - Larry Craig
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Completely Safe (No Order)
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Delaware - Joe Biden
Illinois - Dick Durbin
Massachusetts - John Kerry
Michigan - Carl Levin
Rhode Island - Jack Reed
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller
